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UncleNoel
UncleNoel's Journal
UncleNoel's Journal
November 16, 2019
UncleNoel's Pre-Debate November Tracking Poll to date : Biden 26, Warren 18, Sanders 17 [Biden +8]
The all Adult Ipsos Poll twice had Warren at 11% which seems odd to me. I am wondering whether or not to post GP (all Adult) polls and rely only on RV and LV (registered and likely voters). However, some tracking cites include Ipsos.
LINKS:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#October_2019
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
November 15, 2019
*UPDATED* Pre-Debate Iowa Tracking Poll: Buttigieg, Biden rising, Warren top, Sanders 4th
November Polls only.
Buttigieg gains lead, Biden rising to 2nd place, Warren slipping, Sanders fourth
LINKS:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html#polls
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#Iowa_caucus
Nebraska tracking poll comingup soon.
November 14, 2019
Fox News contributor Raymond Arroyo breaks down Joe Biden's disastrous town hall on 'The Ingraham Angle.'
FOX News Videos•November 13, 2019
https://news.yahoo.com/joe-biden-stumbles-over-warrens-040247071.html
Talk about slanting the news...
LOL! Faux News calls Biden's superb CNN Town Hall "Disatrous"
Joe Biden stumbles over Warren's elitism during CNN town hallFox News contributor Raymond Arroyo breaks down Joe Biden's disastrous town hall on 'The Ingraham Angle.'
FOX News Videos•November 13, 2019
https://news.yahoo.com/joe-biden-stumbles-over-warrens-040247071.html
Talk about slanting the news...
November 10, 2019
Commentary:
A+ to B/C rated poles only. I am considering not including GP (A) polls, but Ipsos is not always such an outlier.
Thanks to Skya for posting the Morning Consult. It wasn't up on 538 or RCP yet.
Uncle Noel's November Aggregate Averages to Date: Biden 28, Warren 20, Sanders 16
Commentary:
The Ipsos Poll is very peculiar and skews the trajectory for Biden and Warren. Sanders not so much. It is a GP (General Population aka Adult) poll which are good for opinion polls but not so refined as Registered voters (RV) or, the best Likely Voters (LV). 11 for Warren is ridiculous!
Putting Ipsos aside Biden gains 1 point and Warren more. Still, the three lanes for the three upper tier candidates remains stable. Biden cruises the high road 26 and up, Warren rides the 20-25 trail and Sanders takes the low road 14-19 (though swerving into Warren's land with a 20 in tew Morning Consult poll).
A+ to B/C rated poles only. I am considering not including GP (A) polls, but Ipsos is not always such an outlier.
Thanks to Skya for posting the Morning Consult. It wasn't up on 538 or RCP yet.
November 9, 2019
'm running for president to unite this country. There's nothing we cannot do if we do it together.
We need a president who can unite all of our country
https://www.facebook.com/joebiden/videos/477452352864208/'m running for president to unite this country. There's nothing we cannot do if we do it together.
November 9, 2019
FYI: Wikipedia provides an aggregate of averages, currently Biden 27.4, Warren 21.5, Sanders 16.9
All candidates given below:
Nationwide opinion polling for the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#Polling_aggregation
This is the latest update:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#November_2019
They have charted the poll aggregates since December 2018.
There reasons for choosing polls and a list of them is also provided.
November 5, 2019
The end of the month tallies might change if other polls are released covering the tail end of the month.
NOTE: The span of the Aggregate Average is based on the last repeated poll. That is, Morning Consult during this period had two previous releases and the Aggregate Average then is from the day after the last previous release. In this manner no poll can contribute multiple times to the Aggregate Average for the candidates.
Day-by-Day Poll Tracker for the 2020 National Democratic Primary: Biden 30, Warren 21, Sanders 16
Still a work in progress.
Commentary:[/
Only the top-tier candidates are shown. If any other candidate rises to the double digit area, they will be shown as well.
Biden owns the 26-34% Lane. He is the clear frontrunner.
Warren and Sanders vying for the position as the challenger with Warren clearly in the lead having risen to take over (almost) the 20-25% Lane.
Sanders is driving own the 14-19% Lane. However, at the end of the month he swings up to challenge Warren who at one point had swerved down nto his lane.
Warren is slipping just a bit, but holding her own for the most part. Sanders rising and can't be discounted, but Biden has a substantial lead.
The end of the month tallies might change if other polls are released covering the tail end of the month.
NOTE: The span of the Aggregate Average is based on the last repeated poll. That is, Morning Consult during this period had two previous releases and the Aggregate Average then is from the day after the last previous release. In this manner no poll can contribute multiple times to the Aggregate Average for the candidates.
November 3, 2019
sni//
“The vision I have for this country, there’s nothing small about it. It is like going to the moon,” Biden told supporters in Des Moines, as he hit the high points of a policy slate that would increase the federal government’s spending and scope on everything from health care to the climate crisis.
Without naming Warren, the former vice president said his ideas — such as a “public option” to compete alongside private health insurance, as opposed to Warren’s “Medicare-for-All” plan run altogether by the government — actually set the progressive standard in 2020 for a simple reason: They’re more achievable.
“I’m not promising anything crazy,” Biden said. “But it’s a vision — a vision of how we can get things done.”
With reporters afterward, Biden zeroed in on Warren’s estimated $20 trillion price tag for the first decade of single-payer insurance. “Getting that plan through, even in a Democratic Congress,” Biden predicted, “would be difficult.”
Biden’s latest volleys came barely 12 hours after Warren used Iowa Democrats’ annual fundraising gala to draw sharp distinctions in the Democratic field, though she, like Biden, avoided naming opponents.
“Anyone who comes on this stage and tells you to dream small and give up early is not going to lead our party to victory,” the Massachusetts senator told thousands of voters sporting t-shirts and waving signs as their preferred candidates took turns on center stage at a downtown Des Moines arena Friday night.
Even if “some people in our party don’t want to admit it,” Warren argued, the nation is in “a time of crisis” not just because of Trump’s divisiveness but more so because of an economic and political system rigged against the working class. “If the most we can promise is ‘business as usual’ after Donald Trump,” Warren said, “then Democrats will lose.”
The senator doubled-down Saturday, insisting in Vinson, Iowa, that sweeping plans are good politics and perhaps necessary to upend Trump. “We need big ideas to inspire people, to get them to turn out for the caucuses, to turn out and vote,” Warren said.
Asked hours later, after an event in Dubuque, if she was suggesting candidates like Biden weren’t being ambitious enough, Warren responded: “Nope. I’m just out here talking about what I’m running on.”
“I’m talking about my vision for what it means to build an America going forward that doesn’t just work for a thin slice at the top, but an America that works for everyone,” she said.
Still, at the very least, Biden’s reaction suggests frustration over Warren’s apparent momentum, even as he and his aides maintain that his philosophical approach will be successful among both Democratic primary voters and the general electorate.
Biden’s proposals, to be clear, put him to the left of recent Democratic nominees, including Hillary Clinton in 2016. But on most points, he falls short of the proposals on the left flank that Warren and her fellow progressive, Sen. Bernie Sanders, have set.
Rather than obliterate private insurance, Biden touts a government plan to compete alongside private firms. Rather than government covering all four-year college tuition, Biden pushes two years a taxpayer-paid tuition. On climate, he backs most long-term goals of the left’s “Green New Deal,” but on a longer timeline and with an initially less aggressive crackdown on the fossil fuel industry.
“It’s made to look like ‘Well, Biden is coming off with some moderate proposal,’” Biden said Saturday. “There’s nothing moderate about making sure everyone has health care. There’s nothing moderate about getting to net-zero emissions. There’s nothing moderate about fundamentally changing the school system in America so we can effectively complete in the 20th century.”
The difference in his proposals, Biden argued: “I tell you straight up how we’re going to pay for it and how much it’s going to cost and how it’s going to get done.”
The dynamics Biden faces were crystallized as young climate activists interrupted him and chided him for not doing enough to take on the oil and gas industry. “Let her speak,” the candidate said as his supporters tried to drown out one of the activists.
Yet as the small group chanted, sang and ultimately departed, Biden grew more frustrated.
“If you’ll notice, they left before I answered her question,” he said. “This is what is going on that’s wrong with our party right now. Everything is taken in contexts that are not accurate.”
As his voice calmed, he sought again to widen his appeal.
“The way we win is we unify, we come together as Democrats,” he said. “We all have basically the same hopes and dreams. The question is, practically, how we get there. But it’s not a lack of vision.”
Bidens defends his Vision of how to get things done against Warrens indirect attacks
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/joe-biden-vision-iowa_n_5dbe3cb6e4b0fffdb0f7d74esni//
“The vision I have for this country, there’s nothing small about it. It is like going to the moon,” Biden told supporters in Des Moines, as he hit the high points of a policy slate that would increase the federal government’s spending and scope on everything from health care to the climate crisis.
Without naming Warren, the former vice president said his ideas — such as a “public option” to compete alongside private health insurance, as opposed to Warren’s “Medicare-for-All” plan run altogether by the government — actually set the progressive standard in 2020 for a simple reason: They’re more achievable.
“I’m not promising anything crazy,” Biden said. “But it’s a vision — a vision of how we can get things done.”
With reporters afterward, Biden zeroed in on Warren’s estimated $20 trillion price tag for the first decade of single-payer insurance. “Getting that plan through, even in a Democratic Congress,” Biden predicted, “would be difficult.”
Biden’s latest volleys came barely 12 hours after Warren used Iowa Democrats’ annual fundraising gala to draw sharp distinctions in the Democratic field, though she, like Biden, avoided naming opponents.
“Anyone who comes on this stage and tells you to dream small and give up early is not going to lead our party to victory,” the Massachusetts senator told thousands of voters sporting t-shirts and waving signs as their preferred candidates took turns on center stage at a downtown Des Moines arena Friday night.
Even if “some people in our party don’t want to admit it,” Warren argued, the nation is in “a time of crisis” not just because of Trump’s divisiveness but more so because of an economic and political system rigged against the working class. “If the most we can promise is ‘business as usual’ after Donald Trump,” Warren said, “then Democrats will lose.”
The senator doubled-down Saturday, insisting in Vinson, Iowa, that sweeping plans are good politics and perhaps necessary to upend Trump. “We need big ideas to inspire people, to get them to turn out for the caucuses, to turn out and vote,” Warren said.
Asked hours later, after an event in Dubuque, if she was suggesting candidates like Biden weren’t being ambitious enough, Warren responded: “Nope. I’m just out here talking about what I’m running on.”
“I’m talking about my vision for what it means to build an America going forward that doesn’t just work for a thin slice at the top, but an America that works for everyone,” she said.
Still, at the very least, Biden’s reaction suggests frustration over Warren’s apparent momentum, even as he and his aides maintain that his philosophical approach will be successful among both Democratic primary voters and the general electorate.
Biden’s proposals, to be clear, put him to the left of recent Democratic nominees, including Hillary Clinton in 2016. But on most points, he falls short of the proposals on the left flank that Warren and her fellow progressive, Sen. Bernie Sanders, have set.
Rather than obliterate private insurance, Biden touts a government plan to compete alongside private firms. Rather than government covering all four-year college tuition, Biden pushes two years a taxpayer-paid tuition. On climate, he backs most long-term goals of the left’s “Green New Deal,” but on a longer timeline and with an initially less aggressive crackdown on the fossil fuel industry.
“It’s made to look like ‘Well, Biden is coming off with some moderate proposal,’” Biden said Saturday. “There’s nothing moderate about making sure everyone has health care. There’s nothing moderate about getting to net-zero emissions. There’s nothing moderate about fundamentally changing the school system in America so we can effectively complete in the 20th century.”
The difference in his proposals, Biden argued: “I tell you straight up how we’re going to pay for it and how much it’s going to cost and how it’s going to get done.”
The dynamics Biden faces were crystallized as young climate activists interrupted him and chided him for not doing enough to take on the oil and gas industry. “Let her speak,” the candidate said as his supporters tried to drown out one of the activists.
Yet as the small group chanted, sang and ultimately departed, Biden grew more frustrated.
“If you’ll notice, they left before I answered her question,” he said. “This is what is going on that’s wrong with our party right now. Everything is taken in contexts that are not accurate.”
As his voice calmed, he sought again to widen his appeal.
“The way we win is we unify, we come together as Democrats,” he said. “We all have basically the same hopes and dreams. The question is, practically, how we get there. But it’s not a lack of vision.”
November 3, 2019
Subhead: The former vice president, 76, dismissed concerns over his series of campaign trail gaffes and jumbled statements.
Anther recent article I saw has a speech pathologist relating his s-called gaffes and mus-speaking as related to his stuttering problem.
Hits on his age and gaffe-proneness are not going to work.
Biden Hits Back At Criticism of Age: 'See If I Have The Energy'
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/joe-biden-age-criticism-see-if-i-have-energy_n_5dbd8229e4b0d8b441cf8214Subhead: The former vice president, 76, dismissed concerns over his series of campaign trail gaffes and jumbled statements.
Former Vice President Joe Biden dismissed questions over his age following a New York Times report that called out his “uneven performances,” “gaffe-prone tendencies” and “verbal miscues.”
“They went out and found people who said that,” he told PBS NewsHour’s Judy Woodruff in an interview that aired Friday. “I don’t doubt people said that... The overwhelming number of people haven’t worried about any miscue or not.”
Anther recent article I saw has a speech pathologist relating his s-called gaffes and mus-speaking as related to his stuttering problem.
Hits on his age and gaffe-proneness are not going to work.
November 2, 2019
Sanders hit at the new super PAC supporting Biden, and the Biden camp hit at the cost of M4A.
Sanders as felt rud abut his small donor donations, noting the following:
This, of course, has been reversed as Biden collected over 5 million dollars in online contributions in October.
At least FOX got the polls right.
So the gloves are coming off as the primaary race heats up.
Faux News relishing Sanders and Biden camps trading barbs
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/sanders-hits-biden-where-it-hurts-suggests-hes-losing-working-class-supportCONCORD, N.H. – Minutes after filing for his second New Hampshire presidential primary, Sen. Bernie Sanders took aim Thursday at former Vice President Joe Biden and suggested he's losing support among crucial working-class voters considered the core of his political base.
Sanders hit at the new super PAC supporting Biden, and the Biden camp hit at the cost of M4A.
Sanders as felt rud abut his small donor donations, noting the following:
And taking a shot at the former vice president, whose fundraising has lagged far behind both Sanders and Warren, Sanders said: “Joe, as I understand it, has not done particularly well in getting a lot of donations from working-class people.”
This, of course, has been reversed as Biden collected over 5 million dollars in online contributions in October.
At least FOX got the polls right.
SANDERS, WARREN, BIDEN, TOP THREE IN LATEST NH PRIMARY POLL
The latest poll in the Granite State, from the University of New Hampshire and CNN, indicated Sanders with a slight 21-18 percent edge over Warren among likely Democratic presidential primary voters, with Biden at 15 percent.
So the gloves are coming off as the primaary race heats up.
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