October 26, 2019

New Poll (C-): Biden double digit lead, Rebounding Sanders bests Warren 18 to 16

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

Oct 17-22, 2019
McLaughlin & Associates C- 468 LV

Biden 28% [Biden +10]
Sanders 18%
Warren 16%
Harris 6%
Yang 6%
All others, including Buttigieg under 5%

For what it is worth.

October 24, 2019

Joe Biden, in Scranton, Says Trump Owes Current Economy to Obama Years

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/23/us/politics/joe-biden-scranton-speech.html

snips//

In a speech that was billed as an outline of Mr. Biden’s economic policy, the former vice president attacked President Trump’s biggest argument for re-election. Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. accused President Trump of “squandering” the economy he inherited from the Obama administration, and promised to reverse Mr. Trump’s tax cuts.

SCRANTON, Pa. — Joseph R. Biden Jr. returned to his native city on Wednesday seeking to undermine President Trump’s strongest argument to voters for re-election: the resilient economy. He accused Mr. Trump of inheriting an economic upturn, but “just like everything else he inherited, he’s in the midst of squandering it.”

Mr. Biden’s speech was billed as an economic policy address, yet it was light on new plans; he repeated many ideas he has previously advanced. Instead, he made an emotional appeal rooted in his middle-class biography to restore the “values” of an American compact, in which hard work allowed average families to afford a home, higher education and health care.

“There used to be a basic bargain in America: If you contribute to the well-being of the outfit you work with, you got to share in the benefits,” Mr. Biden said, speaking to a few hundred in a downtown auditorium. “That bargain’s been broken.”

Although corporate profits are up, Mr. Biden said, middle-class wages are stagnant and families are buckling under the burden of health bills and college. He promised to undo Republican tax cuts on corporations and the wealthy.

***

Mr. Biden hit many of the same themes later in a lengthy speech he gave in West Point, Iowa, where he again talked about his family story and cast Mr. Trump as impervious to the needs of the middle class. He also took several veiled swipes at Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has said she will soon detail her plans to pay for “Medicare for all.”

Mr. Biden supports building on the Affordable Care Act and adding a public option, but has suggested Medicare for all is unrealistic and too expensive.

“My competitors are really well-meaning people,” he said, but added: “None of them told you how Medicare for all is going to be paid for.”
Editors’ Picks
Wegmans Has Come to Brooklyn. Why Are New Yorkers Losing Their Minds?
The Return of Golden Age Design
Those Superfast Nike Shoes Are Creating a Problem

Advertisement

After the event, Mr. Biden, in response to a question from a reporter, again expressed regret for his 1998 use of the term “partisan lynching” in a discussion about impeachment proceedings against President Bill Clinton. Mr. Biden had also tweeted an apology on Tuesday for using the term.

“I was wrong to have said it and I apologize for having said it,” Mr. Biden said on Wednesday.

But he also criticized Mr. Trump for using the term “lynching,” with its legacy of racist murders of African-Americans, to describe the impeachment inquiry he currently faces. Mr. Trump, he argued, was using the term “as a dog whistle.”

“When has he ever taken, when has he ever said a negative thing about a white supremacist?” Mr. Biden said of the president. “Have you heard him say anything? I haven’t.”

Mr. Biden’s appearance in Scranton came the same day that a new CNN national poll showed him with a commanding lead in the Democratic primary, with the support of 34 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning registered voters, followed by Ms. Warren at 19 percent and Senator Bernie Sanders at 16 percent. It is Mr. Biden’s widest lead in the CNN survey since shortly after he announced his bid for president.

But there is no national primary, of course, and Mr. Biden’s advantage in the early-primary states Iowa and New Hampshire has ebbed or evaporated. The CNN survey is a sign that nationally he has retained strong support despite facing weeks of unproved attacks by Mr. Trump on him and his son Hunter over their activities in Ukraine, an issue driving the Democrats’ impeachment inquiry.

Mr. Biden’s economic prescriptions, less sweeping than those of other leading Democrats seeking the nomination, include a $15 federal minimum wage, tripling funding for schools with at-risk students, free community college and a plan for students to pay down their college debt by committing to community service.

Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate is only 3.9 percent, though it is 5.2 percent in Lackawanna County, where Scranton is. But a manufacturing downturn may be underway statewide, with 8,100 jobs lost this year so far, an issue that could cut into the president’s 2016 promises to restore industry in the Rust Belt.

Advertisement

While Mr. Biden visited Scranton, in northeast Pennsylvania, Mr. Trump was scheduled to be in Pittsburgh, in the western part of the state, on Wednesday afternoon, to address natural gas drillers. The president’s visit comes close to the first anniversary of the Tree of Life Synagogue shooting in that city, when a gunman killed 11 worshipers.

Though Democrats made strong gains in the 2018 midterms in Pennsylvania, it is very much up in the air whether they will carry the state next year, and who would be their most formidable opponent to the president. Mr. Trump has held rallies both before and after his election at an arena in nearby Wilkes-Barre that drew some 10,000 people.

Although Hillary Clinton narrowly carried Lackawanna County, Mr. Trump cut deeply into the Democratic margin of more than 26,000 votes that Barack Obama piled up here in 2012.

Democrats have been arguing ever since about how to recapture those voters, mostly white and working class, and how much to focus on them. Mr. Biden, who is regarded warmly by many Pennsylvanians thanks to his history here, spent many minutes recounting family stories he has told regularly: his father moving alone to Delaware for a job but promising to send for the family when he could afford to; his father feeling ashamed when a bank turned him down for a loan to pay for his son’s college. His father telling young “Joey” that “the measure of success is not whether you get knocked down, it’s how quickly you get up.”

The split-screen moment in Pennsylvania comes after weeks of clashes between the Trump and Biden camps. In the last month, Mr. Biden has faced concerns from some Democrats over whether he was responding quickly and aggressively enough to Mr. Trump’s attacks. His campaign has settled on a strategy of frequently criticizing Mr. Trump and seeking to discredit his messages, while also focusing on policy matters — health care in particular.

October 24, 2019

All Post-debate#3 Poll Averages: Biden 27, Warren 21, Sanders 17, Buttigieg 7, Harris 5 (Biden +6)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#polls

All polls are listed from RCP and 538 except that if more than one poll occurred more than once, only the most recent one was chosen and the older one eliminated. Candidates who only had less than 5% were not listed below (sorry, go to the link to find there percentages). In some cases the figures from the two sources disagreed in which case I used those from 538.

Biden 27, Warren 21, Sanders 17, Buttigieg 7, Harris 5 (Biden +6)

Candidates Biden Warren Sanders Buttigieg Harris
RCP Average (rounded) 10/16-22: 27 21 17 7 5 Biden +6
Quinnipiac A- (LV) 10/17-21: 21 28 15 10 5 Warren +7
CNN/SSRS A- (RV) 10/17-20: 34 19 16 6 6 Biden +15
YouGov B (LV) 10/20-22: 24 21 15 8 5 Biden +3
The Hill C+ (RV) 10/21-22: 27 19 14 6 5 Biden +8
Emerson B+ (LV) 10/18-21: 27 21 25 6 5 Biden +2
Morning Consult B- (LV) 10/16-20: 30 21 18 6 6 Biden +9
Ipsos B+ (RV) 10/17-18: 24 17 15 5 4 Biden +7
SUSA A (LV) 10/15-16: 32 22 17 5 7 Biden +10

RCP is strange. One time they have 7 polls and then 3-5. Time frame doesn't seem to be the differences. Sometimes their figures differ from 538 (LV vs. RV? and sometimes entry error?). I chose the 538 figures and did not check the original sources.

October 23, 2019

CNN poll: Biden wins the "enthusiasm" factor! A record level of enthusiasm heading into 2020

So much for that meme!

1 hr 54 min ago
TL;DR: Biden leads Democrats and all top Democrats lead Trump
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/cnn-poll-10-23-2019/index.html

snip//

A record level of enthusiasm heading into 2020

Democratic elites may not like their choices, but voters do.

One of the most interesting nuggets from our poll is that 43% of potential Democratic voters would be enthusiastic if Biden were the nominee. Warren, at 41%, and Sanders, at 39%, post similar percentages.

I was interested if these were lower than normal, given that there are reports that party actors are unhappy with how the primary is playing out. They're hoping for someone new to jump in the race.

Well, the percentages for the leading Democrats this year look as good, if not slightly better, than the last two Democratic nomination fights at this point. Back in early November 2007, 30% said they’d feel enthusiastic if Barack Obama was the Democratic nominee. For Clinton, it was 39%. John Edwards rang in with a mere 18% on this score.

Jump ahead to 2015 and you see something similar. In September 2015, 43% said they would be enthusiastic if Clinton were the nominee. It was 37% for Biden and 31% for Sanders.

October 23, 2019

The MSM is jushing a new narrative: Dems looking for someone else

Clinton and Bloomberg being teased, pushing the Biden cash crunch as an excuse to make things exciting.

We need to contribute all we can to Joe and hope Clinton is not tempted to hope into the race. Same for Bloomberg.

We need Joe and his recent surge in the polls is exhilarating.

October 22, 2019

Biden continues to lead in National Dem Primary Polls (RCP)

Curren RCP Averages Democratic Presidential Nomination
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2020/

Biden 29.4, Warren 24.8 [Biden +4.6]
Sanders 15.2
Buttigieg 6.0, Harris 5.6
Yang 2.2, O'Rourke 2., Klobuchar 2.0, Booker 1.8, Steyer1.4, Gabbard 1.2, Bennet 1.0, Castro 0.8, Williamson 0.5, Ryan 0.5, Bullock0.3

Based on the following Polls
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Politico/Morning Consult, SurveyUSA, Economist/YouGov, Quinnipiac, FOX News.

Three Biden Friendly and two Warren Friendly polls.

October 22, 2019

Has anybody noticed the latest California Democratic Primary A rated SurveyUSA Poll? Biden +15

California Democratic Primary
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/democratic_nomination_polls/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/california/

KGTV-TV/SurveyUSA Oct 15_16 LV
Biden 33, Warren 18, Sanders 17,
Harris 8, Buttigieg 4, Yang 4, O'Rourke 2, Booker 2, Castro 1, Gabbard 1, Klobuchar 1, Steyer 1, Bennet
Biden +15

It was just posted today by 538.

October 19, 2019

Post-Debate (3) Poll Averages: Biden 28.3, Warren 18, Sanders 17

FYI: Here is the link to the FiveThirtyEight page with all the polls for the Democratic Primary listed.

National 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Polls
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/

538 does not give poll averages. Below I have given them for the three polls since the October 15th debate. These are all Biden-friendly polls and the averages will change and the differences narrow as the Warren-friendly polls are posted (like YouGov, for example).

Dates Pollster Rating Biden Warren Sanders

10/17-18 Ipsos B+ 21% 15% 16%
10/15-18 HarrisX C+ 33% 18% 17%
10/16 Morning B- 31% 21% 18%
Consult
Averages: Biden 28,3, Warren 18, Sanders 17

Please check the link for other candidates (all in single digits)

October 18, 2019

With a due resect, Warren is NOT the new frontrunner!

This is the new meme being splashed across the internet and MSM. Warren's rise was spetaculor and her organization excellent, but in fact she does not command the lead. While we do not have post-debate polls rolling in, the following is how it stands now.

Nationally

link:https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html|RCP Average]:

Biden 29.9, Warren 23.4, Sanders 15

Early Primary States:

Iowa (RCP: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html):

RCP Average: 9/14-10/16: Biden 21.7, Warren22.3 Sanders 15, Buttigieg 13.0. Tie

Emerson College 10/13-16: Biden 22, Warren 22, Sanders 13, Buttigieg 16,
CBS/YouGov 10/3-11 : Biden 22, Warren 22, Sanders 21, Buttigieg 14
DM Register/CNN 9/14-18: Biden 20, Warren 22, Sanders 11, Buttigieg 9

A virtual tie between Biden and Warren (Sanders close behind; Buttigieg rising. Let's say Biden and Warren co-frontrunners.


New Hampshire RCP: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html:

RCP Average 9/25-10/13: Warren 27.3, Biden 24, Sanders 16.7, Buttigieg 8.7. Warren +3.3

Boston Herald/FPU 10/9-13: Warren 25, Biden 24, Sanders 22, Buttigieg 9. Warren +1
CBS News/YouGov 10/3-11: Warren 32, Biden 24, Sanders 17, Buttigieg 4 Warren +8
St. Anselm 9/25-29: Warren 25, Biden 24, Sanders 1, Buttigieg 10.

Warren a 3 point lead due to the CBS/YouGov poll. Otherwise a virtual tie.

South Carolina. RCP: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html

RCP Average: 9/21-10/11: Biden 38.8, Warren 14.0, Sanders 11.0. Biden +24.8

CBS News/GYouGov 10/3-11: Biden 43, Warren 18, Sanders 16.
Gravis 10/3--7: Biden 34, Warren 9, Sanders 10.
FOX News 9/29-10/2 : Biden 41, Warren 12, Sanders 10.
Winthrop 9/2-30: Biden 37, Warren 17, Sanders 8

No surprises here.

Nevada. RCP: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nv/nevada_democratic_presidential_caucus-6866.html

RCP Average: 9/19-26: Biden 22.5, Warren: 18.5, Sanders 18.0. Biden +4

CNN 9/22-9/26: Biden 22, Warren 18, Sanders 22. Biden +4 (Not quite a Tie)
USA Today/Suffolk 9/19-9/23: Biden 23, Warren 19, Sanders 14. Biden +4

So Iowa too close to call, but Biden and Warren will share the bulk of he delegates. Co-frontrunners.

New Hampshire gives Warren as light lead, but Biden and Warren will share the bulk of the delegates, though Sanders will get some as well.
South Carolina is overwhelmingly for Biden.
Nevada gives Biden a slight lead, but Biden and Warren jwill share the bulk of the delegates.

See how this plays out in the polls the next couple of weeks.

October 17, 2019

Pre-Debate Poll Averages--2 versions, both more or less Biden 29, Warren 24, Sanders 15

As the dust settles from the 4th debate, we can see how the wind blows with the post-debate polls to come.

RCP as currently shown; Other averages created from polls posted by 538. Comes out pretty much the same.

All 538 Poll Averages: Biden 29.8 Warren 24.3, Sanders 14.5 (Biden +5.5)
RCP Poll Averages: Biden 29.4, Warren 23.4, Sanders 15.4 (Biden +6)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#polls
Biden 29.4, Warren 23.4, Sanders 15.4 (Biden +6)
Buttigieg 5.6, Harris 5.2
O'Rourke 2.8, Yang 2.2
Klobuchar 1.8, Booker 1.6, Steyer 1.4, Gabbard 1.2, Bennet 1.0
Castro 0.8, Williamson 0.6, Ryan 0.6, Bullock0.2

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

All-Polls-Average (10/1-15):
HarrisX (C+) 10/13-15: Biden 34, Warren 18, Sanders 15
Economist/YouGov (B) (LV) 10/13-15: Biden 25, Warren 28, Sanders 13
Quinnipiac (A-) 10/11-13: Biden 27, Warren 30, Sanders 11
Politico/Morning Consult ( (LV) 10/7-12: Biden 32, Warren 21, Sanders 19
FOX News (LV) 10/6-8: Biden 32, Warren 22, Sanders 17
Avalanche Strategy (RV) 10/1-4: Biden 2, Warren 27, Sanders 12

I replaced the newest HarrisX for the older Hill/HarrisX rather than keeping both (they are separate polls) out of fairness. They are roughly the same. Also, RCP reported Warren 29 for YouGov, but I used the figure from 538 (28). Avalanche Strategy was not reported by RCP.

So we have both Biden-leaning and Warren-leaning polls all in a row...