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UncleNoel

Profile Information

Member since: Mon Jul 11, 2005, 11:05 AM
Number of posts: 858

About Me

White, male, expatriate living in the mountains of central Taiwan, Oregon permanent address, 34 years of age. Born in St. Louis. Army brat lived all over. Veteran of the Korean War (sieved in Libya and Austin, Texas). Ph.D. in anthropology and linguistics, Indiana University. Career in linguistics and ESL at numerous US and foreign institutions. Spent most of my career as a director of English as a Second Language programs. Taught at National Chi Nan Unversity, Puli, Taiwan over the years 1995-2016. Retired as an orchard keeper with my life partner Judy Wu of the Bunun Austronesian tribe in our mountain hideaway cabin, High Mountain Orchards.

Journal Archives

All Post-debate#3 Poll Averages: Biden 27, Warren 21, Sanders 17, Buttigieg 7, Harris 5 (Biden +6)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#polls

All polls are listed from RCP and 538 except that if more than one poll occurred more than once, only the most recent one was chosen and the older one eliminated. Candidates who only had less than 5% were not listed below (sorry, go to the link to find there percentages). In some cases the figures from the two sources disagreed in which case I used those from 538.

Biden 27, Warren 21, Sanders 17, Buttigieg 7, Harris 5 (Biden +6)

Candidates Biden Warren Sanders Buttigieg Harris
RCP Average (rounded) 10/16-22: 27 21 17 7 5 Biden +6
Quinnipiac A- (LV) 10/17-21: 21 28 15 10 5 Warren +7
CNN/SSRS A- (RV) 10/17-20: 34 19 16 6 6 Biden +15
YouGov B (LV) 10/20-22: 24 21 15 8 5 Biden +3
The Hill C+ (RV) 10/21-22: 27 19 14 6 5 Biden +8
Emerson B+ (LV) 10/18-21: 27 21 25 6 5 Biden +2
Morning Consult B- (LV) 10/16-20: 30 21 18 6 6 Biden +9
Ipsos B+ (RV) 10/17-18: 24 17 15 5 4 Biden +7
SUSA A (LV) 10/15-16: 32 22 17 5 7 Biden +10

RCP is strange. One time they have 7 polls and then 3-5. Time frame doesn't seem to be the differences. Sometimes their figures differ from 538 (LV vs. RV? and sometimes entry error?). I chose the 538 figures and did not check the original sources.

CNN poll: Biden wins the "enthusiasm" factor! A record level of enthusiasm heading into 2020

So much for that meme!

1 hr 54 min ago
TL;DR: Biden leads Democrats and all top Democrats lead Trump
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/cnn-poll-10-23-2019/index.html

snip//

A record level of enthusiasm heading into 2020

Democratic elites may not like their choices, but voters do.

One of the most interesting nuggets from our poll is that 43% of potential Democratic voters would be enthusiastic if Biden were the nominee. Warren, at 41%, and Sanders, at 39%, post similar percentages.

I was interested if these were lower than normal, given that there are reports that party actors are unhappy with how the primary is playing out. They're hoping for someone new to jump in the race.

Well, the percentages for the leading Democrats this year look as good, if not slightly better, than the last two Democratic nomination fights at this point. Back in early November 2007, 30% said theyíd feel enthusiastic if Barack Obama was the Democratic nominee. For Clinton, it was 39%. John Edwards rang in with a mere 18% on this score.

Jump ahead to 2015 and you see something similar. In September 2015, 43% said they would be enthusiastic if Clinton were the nominee. It was 37% for Biden and 31% for Sanders.

The MSM is jushing a new narrative: Dems looking for someone else

Clinton and Bloomberg being teased, pushing the Biden cash crunch as an excuse to make things exciting.

We need to contribute all we can to Joe and hope Clinton is not tempted to hope into the race. Same for Bloomberg.

We need Joe and his recent surge in the polls is exhilarating.

Biden continues to lead in National Dem Primary Polls (RCP)

Curren RCP Averages Democratic Presidential Nomination
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2020/

Biden 29.4, Warren 24.8 [Biden +4.6]
Sanders 15.2
Buttigieg 6.0, Harris 5.6
Yang 2.2, O'Rourke 2., Klobuchar 2.0, Booker 1.8, Steyer1.4, Gabbard 1.2, Bennet 1.0, Castro 0.8, Williamson 0.5, Ryan 0.5, Bullock0.3

Based on the following Polls
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Politico/Morning Consult, SurveyUSA, Economist/YouGov, Quinnipiac, FOX News.

Three Biden Friendly and two Warren Friendly polls.

Has anybody noticed the latest California Democratic Primary A rated SurveyUSA Poll? Biden +15

California Democratic Primary
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/democratic_nomination_polls/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/california/

KGTV-TV/SurveyUSA Oct 15_16 LV
Biden 33, Warren 18, Sanders 17,
Harris 8, Buttigieg 4, Yang 4, O'Rourke 2, Booker 2, Castro 1, Gabbard 1, Klobuchar 1, Steyer 1, Bennet
Biden +15

It was just posted today by 538.

Post-Debate (3) Poll Averages: Biden 28.3, Warren 18, Sanders 17

FYI: Here is the link to the FiveThirtyEight page with all the polls for the Democratic Primary listed.

National 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Polls
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/

538 does not give poll averages. Below I have given them for the three polls since the October 15th debate. These are all Biden-friendly polls and the averages will change and the differences narrow as the Warren-friendly polls are posted (like YouGov, for example).

Dates Pollster Rating Biden Warren Sanders

10/17-18 Ipsos B+ 21% 15% 16%
10/15-18 HarrisX C+ 33% 18% 17%
10/16 Morning B- 31% 21% 18%
Consult
Averages: Biden 28,3, Warren 18, Sanders 17

Please check the link for other candidates (all in single digits)

With a due resect, Warren is NOT the new frontrunner!

This is the new meme being splashed across the internet and MSM. Warren's rise was spetaculor and her organization excellent, but in fact she does not command the lead. While we do not have post-debate polls rolling in, the following is how it stands now.

Nationally

link:https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html|RCP Average]:


Biden 29.9, Warren 23.4, Sanders 15


Early Primary States:

Iowa (RCP: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html):

RCP Average: 9/14-10/16: Biden 21.7, Warren22.3 Sanders 15, Buttigieg 13.0. Tie

Emerson College 10/13-16: Biden 22, Warren 22, Sanders 13, Buttigieg 16,
CBS/YouGov 10/3-11 : Biden 22, Warren 22, Sanders 21, Buttigieg 14
DM Register/CNN 9/14-18: Biden 20, Warren 22, Sanders 11, Buttigieg 9


A virtual tie between Biden and Warren (Sanders close behind; Buttigieg rising. Let's say Biden and Warren co-frontrunners.


New Hampshire RCP: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html:

RCP Average 9/25-10/13: Warren 27.3, Biden 24, Sanders 16.7, Buttigieg 8.7. Warren +3.3

Boston Herald/FPU 10/9-13: Warren 25, Biden 24, Sanders 22, Buttigieg 9. Warren +1
CBS News/YouGov 10/3-11: Warren 32, Biden 24, Sanders 17, Buttigieg 4 Warren +8
St. Anselm 9/25-29: Warren 25, Biden 24, Sanders 1, Buttigieg 10.


Warren a 3 point lead due to the CBS/YouGov poll. Otherwise a virtual tie.

South Carolina. RCP: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html

RCP Average: 9/21-10/11: Biden 38.8, Warren 14.0, Sanders 11.0. Biden +24.8

CBS News/GYouGov 10/3-11: Biden 43, Warren 18, Sanders 16.
Gravis 10/3--7: Biden 34, Warren 9, Sanders 10.
FOX News 9/29-10/2 : Biden 41, Warren 12, Sanders 10.
Winthrop 9/2-30: Biden 37, Warren 17, Sanders 8


No surprises here.

Nevada. RCP: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nv/nevada_democratic_presidential_caucus-6866.html

RCP Average: 9/19-26: Biden 22.5, Warren: 18.5, Sanders 18.0. Biden +4

CNN 9/22-9/26: Biden 22, Warren 18, Sanders 22. Biden +4 (Not quite a Tie)
USA Today/Suffolk 9/19-9/23: Biden 23, Warren 19, Sanders 14. Biden +4


So Iowa too close to call, but Biden and Warren will share the bulk of he delegates. Co-frontrunners.

New Hampshire gives Warren as light lead, but Biden and Warren will share the bulk of the delegates, though Sanders will get some as well.
South Carolina is overwhelmingly for Biden.
Nevada gives Biden a slight lead, but Biden and Warren jwill share the bulk of the delegates.

See how this plays out in the polls the next couple of weeks.


Pre-Debate Poll Averages--2 versions, both more or less Biden 29, Warren 24, Sanders 15

As the dust settles from the 4th debate, we can see how the wind blows with the post-debate polls to come.

RCP as currently shown; Other averages created from polls posted by 538. Comes out pretty much the same.


All 538 Poll Averages: Biden 29.8 Warren 24.3, Sanders 14.5 (Biden +5.5)
RCP Poll Averages: Biden 29.4, Warren 23.4, Sanders 15.4 (Biden +6)



https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#polls
Biden 29.4, Warren 23.4, Sanders 15.4 (Biden +6)
Buttigieg 5.6, Harris 5.2
O'Rourke 2.8, Yang 2.2
Klobuchar 1.8, Booker 1.6, Steyer 1.4, Gabbard 1.2, Bennet 1.0
Castro 0.8, Williamson 0.6, Ryan 0.6, Bullock0.2

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

All-Polls-Average (10/1-15):
HarrisX (C+) 10/13-15: Biden 34, Warren 18, Sanders 15
Economist/YouGov (B) (LV) 10/13-15: Biden 25, Warren 28, Sanders 13
Quinnipiac (A-) 10/11-13: Biden 27, Warren 30, Sanders 11
Politico/Morning Consult ( (LV) 10/7-12: Biden 32, Warren 21, Sanders 19
FOX News (LV) 10/6-8: Biden 32, Warren 22, Sanders 17
Avalanche Strategy (RV) 10/1-4: Biden 2, Warren 27, Sanders 12

I replaced the newest HarrisX for the older Hill/HarrisX rather than keeping both (they are separate polls) out of fairness. They are roughly the same. Also, RCP reported Warren 29 for YouGov, but I used the figure from 538 (28). Avalanche Strategy was not reported by RCP.

So we have both Biden-leaning and Warren-leaning polls all in a row...




Nate Siver (538): Warren's Rise Hasn't Come At Biden's Expense

I thought this was worth posting.

Oct. 14, 2019, at 5:45 AM
Bidenís numbers are steady in post-Ukraine polls.
By Nate Silver
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/elizabeth-warren-rise-hasnt-come-at-joe-biden-expense/

Snip//

I just want to make a narrower point: Joe Biden is still doing reasonably well in the polls.
Elizabeth Warrenís doing well, too! She probably hasnít overtaken Biden in national polls, yet, but itís pretty darn close ó close enough that she was momentarily ahead in one national polling average (from RealClearPolitics) last week. Youíd certainly rather be in Warrenís shoes than Bidenís in Iowa and New Hampshire. (Although not in South Carolina, and the Super Tuesday states arenít so clear.) In fact, if you want to argue that sheís the most likely nominee, I donít have any real problem with that. I also donít have any real problem if you think itís Biden, or that itís too close to call.

But Warrenís gains have come mostly at the expense of the rest of the field ó from Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders, in particular ó and from other candidates, such as Cory Booker, whose campaigns never really took off in the first place. Relatively little of Warrenís increased support has come from Biden, whose topline numbers have mostly been steady
.
In fact, Bidenís numbers havenít declined at all since President Trumpís phone call with Ukraine became the dominant political story. We can see this by taking a before and after comparison of polls that have come out in the past couple of weeks. Itís hard to pinpoint an exact date when Ukraine and impeachment rose to the top of the news. But Monday, September 23, when seven first-term Democratic members of Congress published an editorial calling for Trumpís impeachment over allegations that he encouraged Ukraine to investigate Biden and and his son, was probably the closest thing to an inflection point. .... So here are the results from nine pollsters who have conducted a national poll since Sept. 23.1
National Democratic primary polls since Sept. 23
Average results of Democratic primary candidates in national polls conducted after Sept. 23, 2019, op-ed calling for Trumpís impeachment
Candidate Fox Har YG Qípac M.C. IBD Ipsos Mon. DFP Avg
Biden 32% 36% 25% 26% 33% 26% 21% 25% 23% 27.4
Warren 22 16 28 29 21 27 15 28 36 24.7
Sanders 17 14 13 16 19 10 16 15 15 15.0
Buttigieg 4 6 5 4 5 7 4 5 6 5.1
Harris 5 6 5 3 6 3 4 5 5 4.7
Yang 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2.7
OíRourke 3 3 1 1 3 2 2 1 2 2.0
Booker 2 2 1 2 2 0 1 1 2 1.4
Klobuchar 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1.3
Castro 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1.0
Gabbard 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0.7
Steyer 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0.6
Only candidates who have qualified for next weekís debate are listed in the chart.
FOX = Fox News; HAR = HarrisX; YG = YouGov; QíPAC = Quinnipiac University; M.C. = Morning Consult; IBD = IBD/TIPP; MON. = Monmouth University; DFP = Data For Progress / YouGov Blue

In an average of those polls, Bidenís still on top at 27.4 percent, with Warren in second at 24.7 percent. I donít necessarily buy that Warren pulled ahead of Biden last week, as the RCP average briefly showed; for some reason, RCPís average didnít include HarrisX, which is usually one of Bidenís better polls. Itís also sort of a moot point, though. Thereís no national primary, and if Warren keeps gaining ground at the rate she has been over the past few months, sheíll surpass Biden eventually.
What there hasnít been, though, is much sign of a decline in Bidenís numbers, despite all the media narratives constantly predicting one. Here was the most recent pre-Ukraine version (all interviews conducted before Sept. 23) of those same national polls.
National Democratic primary polls before Sept. 23 [Go to the link for the chark]
****
So Biden was at 26.9 percent on average in the pre-Ukraine polls Ö and heís at 27.4 percent now. Thereís been no decline at all, obviously.

Warren has gained quite a bit of ground, though, having gone from 19 percent to 24.7 percent. Where is that support coming from?
Biden is steady, and Warren is gaining, post-Ukraine news
Average results of Democratic primary candidates in national polls before and after the Sept. 23, 2019, op-ed calling for Trumpís ****

Some of it has come from Harris, whom Warren is competing with for college-educated voters. Some has come from Sanders. And some of it may have come from second-tier candidates such as Booker, whose solid debate performances seem to have been forgotten and who is back to just 1 or 2 percent in the polls. YouGovís polling of early-state voters suggests that relatively little of it has come from Biden, on the other hand.
If thereís a bit of bad news for Warren, itís that sheís already picked off a lot of the low-hanging fruit. She can perhaps grab a few more Sanders voters, especially if some are concerned over the heart attack he suffered two weeks ago. But Sanders has already lost around two-thirds of the voters that he had in 2016, so the ones that remain with him may be a relatively hardy lot. Meanwhile, there arenít that many more Harris supporters to win over.
Thatís not to say that itís all going swimmingly for Biden, either. Although his topline numbers havenít changed much, Warren has surpassed him on measures of enthusiasm, she tends to have better favorability ratings than he does, and, obviously, Iowa and New Hampshire are huge potential liabilities for Biden if he loses them.

But our thesis about Bidenís candidacy has never been that heís the most perfect candidate or has run the most flawless campaign, but rather that he commands deep loyalty from constituencies that often receive little coverage from media elites, including seniors, non-college-educated whites, African Americans and moderates. There arenít many signs that these voters support Biden solely because of name recognition, or that their support is otherwise superficial. In fact, Biden ó like Warren ó often does better among voters who are paying the most attention to the campaign.

Now, if you want to argue that the 70 percent of Democrats who donít have Biden as their first choice are cooling on him, I think youíre on firmer ground. And that could absolutely be a problem for him if he and Warren ó perhaps along with other candidates ó are scrambling to pick up additional supporters after the early states.
To a first approximation, though, Bidenís numbers have been quite steady. Other than a post-announcement bounce, when he briefly surged to near 40 percent, heís been somewhere between 26 percent and 32 percent in the RCP average for literally the entire campaign:

In contrast to certain other campaigns, which naively thought that Bidenís support might just up and disappear, Warrenís team has caught up to him the hard way: by building a coalition of around 25 percent of the Democratic electorate on her own, including many voters that were initially skeptical of her.

Empirically speaking, the mid-to-high-20s in the polls tends to be a fairly robust and sustainable position. It doesnít necessarily make you a favorite to win the nomination, especially when thereís another candidate whoís polling at about the same number. But through this point in a presidential primary, few candidates who have sustained numbers in the mid-to-high-20s have completely flopped. Those numbers tend to be good enough that youíll win your share of states (past Iowa caucus winners have often gotten around 25 to 30 percent of the vote) or at least your share of delegates. They mean that youíll probably be one of the trains leaving the station as the field starts to winnow. They reflect a measure of success unto themselves.

All right, this is getting a little grandiose, so letís save the rest of the analysis for after the debate. Besides, the Democratic primary just isnít all that complicated right now. Roughly speaking, the nomination process is going reasonably well for both Warren and Biden. And while there are other candidates who are exceeding expectations,2 it isnít going all that well for anyone else.

To a first approximation, though, Bidenís numbers have been quite steady. Other than a post-announcement bounce, when he briefly surged to near 40 percent, heís been somewhere between 26 percent and 32 percent in the RCP average for literally the entire campaign:

[RCP tracking chart here]

In contrast to certain other campaigns, which naively thought that Bidenís support might just up and disappear, Warrenís team has caught up to him the hard way: by building a coalition of around 25 percent of the Democratic electorate on her own, including many voters that were initially skeptical of her.

BTW

The Poll Wars: To HarrisX or not to HarrisX

I would like to see more Humor in the back and forth on polls for the upper tier candidates, Biden, Warren and Sanders. I am going to vote BLUE in the GE and I am fine with the co-front-runners Joe and Liz. Either would make a fantastic president thugh I am an unabashed Biden supporter. And Bernie makes Trump look like a fool.

So I am listing the All-Poll-Averages of those listed by 538 in two groups with a further average of all of them. Take your pick and have your say. We have great candidates and I love the enthusiasm of their supporters -- Vote blue to take our government back...

I. Good News Biden

HarrisX (C+) LV 10/8-11: JB 36, EW 16, BS 14
FOX News (A) LV 10/6 - 8: JB 32, EW 22, BS 17
Morning Consult (9/30-10/6: JB 33, EW 21, BS 19
Rounded Averages: Biden 34, Warren 20, Sanders 17 (Biden +14)

II. Good News Warren

YouGov Blue/
Data for Progress LV: 9/23-10/: JB 23, EW 36, BS 15
YouGov (B) LV 10/6 - 8: JB 25, EW 29, BS 14
Quinnipiac (A-) RV 10/4 - 7: JB 26, EW 29, BS 16
Rounded Averages: Biden 25, Warren 31, Sanders 15 (Warren +6)

All-Poll-Averages: Biden 30, Warren 26, Sanders 16 (Biden +4)

Biden holding steady overall, Warren rising, Sanders static



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