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UncleNoel

Profile Information

Member since: Mon Jul 11, 2005, 11:05 AM
Number of posts: 858

About Me

White, male, expatriate living in the mountains of central Taiwan, Oregon permanent address, 34 years of age. Born in St. Louis. Army brat lived all over. Veteran of the Korean War (sieved in Libya and Austin, Texas). Ph.D. in anthropology and linguistics, Indiana University. Career in linguistics and ESL at numerous US and foreign institutions. Spent most of my career as a director of English as a Second Language programs. Taught at National Chi Nan Unversity, Puli, Taiwan over the years 1995-2016. Retired as an orchard keeper with my life partner Judy Wu of the Bunun Austronesian tribe in our mountain hideaway cabin, High Mountain Orchards.

Journal Archives

All-Poll-Averages (from 538 listing) Democratic Primary: Averages: JB 30, EW 24, BS 15 (UPDATED)

All-Poll-Averages Democratic Primary: Averages (rounded): Biden 29.5, Warren 24.25, Sanders 15.25 (Biden +6.6)

Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/

RCP does not include all the polls listed by 538. This means their average does not include all the available data from legitimate polls as recognized by 538. The following averages are given according to the last five polls released with all polling taking place up to and including October. The polls include both online and live polls (only excluding duplicates, I.e., only the most recent HarrisX) and limited to October polls only. I have listed only those with double digits Sorry about that. Consult the link above for others (Harris, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, Booker, Yang, etc.)).

October Polls Only:

HarrisX (C+) LV 10/7-10 35 17 14
FOX News (A) LV 10/6 - 8 32 22 17
YouGov (B) LV 10/6 - 8 25 29 14
Quinnipiac (A-) RV 10/4 - 7 26 29 16


Averages: Biden 29.5, Warren 24.25, Sanders 15.25 (Biden +5.25 - Corrected)

If I did the last 6 as RCP did (but with the last six as in 538), the result is not much different. It would include polls that overlapped the end of September and the begining of Ocober,keeping it within the October range at any rate.

Morning Consult ( LV 9/30 - 10/6 33 21 19
IBD/TIPP VRV 9/26 - 10/3 26 27 10

Averages: Biden 29.5, Warren 24.16, Sanders 15 (Biden +5.34)


On my last post there was a lively discussion (mostly Warren supporters) about HarrisX and Morning Consult as online outiers. Given the results from FOX News they seem perfectly in line, but here all polls exclusive to October (the last five listed) with no prejudice against YouGov and Quinnipiac which show different results. Morning Consult and IBDF/TIPP both had initial dates in September and therefore not reflected here. So it is alliteratively balanced. Biden supporters can be encuraged by FOC and Warren supporters by YouGov and Quinnipiac, but it all levels out.

RCP with its selection of polls shows a slight uptick for Biden and a slighter downtick for Warren. There is also an uptick for Sanders.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Americans have more confidence in Biden's ethical standards than Trumps

Glad they are waking up. These figures will get better for Bien and worst for Trump as the impeachment revs up.
Biden 47% would vs Trump would 35%
Biden 38% vs. Trump would not 60%



Biden's support for impeachment is not too little too late, but the right amount at the right time.

The Pelosi/Biden strategy is roke up the coals, put the irons in the fire, and strike when the irons are hot.

With over 5% favoring impeachment, it is the right time to strike.

Where do we stand on state polls -- a selective compendium

Not all states, but a bunch of them. Mostly September; It will be interesting as they are updated.

The Latest State Polls for the Democratic Primary

Pa: Biden 17, Warren 9; Buttigieg 8, Sanders. 6 1
Wis: Biden 28, Warren 22, Sanders 17. 2
SC: Biden 41, Warren 12, Sanders 10. 3
Ohio: Biden 29, Sanders 27, Warren 21 4
Ariz: Biden 15, Warren 35, Sanders 19, Buttigieg 13. 5
Calif: Biden 22, Warren 23, Sanders 21. 6
Iowa: Bidden 20, Warren 22, Sanders 11. 7
N.H.: Biden 25, Warren 27, Sanders 12, B uttigieg 10. 8
Fla.: Biden 43, Warren 26, Sanders 10. 9
Nev: Biden 22, Warren 22, Sanders 18. 10
Texas: Biden , 28, Warren 18, Sanders 12, O’Rourke 12. 11
Wisc. Biden 28, Warren 22, Sanders 17. 12

1 Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (C+) 9/30-10/6 (RV)
2 Fox News (A) 9.29-10/2 (LV)
3 Fox News (A) 9.29-10/2 (LV)
4vEmerson College (B+) 9.29-10/2 (LV)
5 Change Research (C+) 9/27-8 (LV)
6 Public Policy Institute of California (A), 9/16-25 (LV)
7 Selzer & Co. (A+) 9/14-18 (LV)
8 Monmouth University (A+) 9/17-21 (LV)
9 Tel. Opinion Research (B) 9/15-18 (LV)
10 CNN/SSRS (A-) 9/22-26 (LV)
11Quinnipiac University (A-) 9/4-9- (RV)
12 Fox News (A) 9/29-10/3 (LV)

NIX RCP No Cherry Picking: 538 National Polling Averages: Biden 29, Warren 24, Sanders 15 (Biden +5)

NIX RCP No Cherry Picking Polls: 538 National Polling Averages: Biden 29, Warren 24, Sanders 15 (Biden +5)
Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/

Let’s keep our perspective: You can’t just say HarrisX and Morning Consult are outliers and ignore them. Here there is no eliminating polls we don’t like but just as 538 posts them. There sampling includes a broader sampling of critical states (see recent polls for Ohio and PA).

RCP does not include all the polls listed by 538. This means their average does not include all the available data from legitimate polls as recognized by 538. The following averages are given according to the last five polls released with all polling taking place up to and including October. The polls include both online and live polls. The sample means LV (likely voters), RV (registered voters), etc. I have listed only those with double digits Sorry about that. Consult the link above for others (Harris, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, Booker, Yang, etc.)).

Poll (Dates) (Rating ) (Sample): Joe Biden , Elizabeth Warren , Bernie Sanders

HarrisX (10/4-8)(C+)(LV): JB 36, EW 18, BS 15 (Biden +14)
Quinnipiac (10/4-7)(A-)(RV): JB 26, EW 29, BS 16 (Warren +3)
Morning Consult (9/30-10/6)((LV): JB 33, EW 21, BS 19 (Biden +12)
IBD/TIPP (9/26-10/3)(A-)(RV): JB 26, EW 27, BS 10 (Warren +1)
YouGov (9/28-10/1)(B) (LV) JB 22, EW 26, BS 14.75 (Warren +4)

Averages (rounded): Biden 29, Warren 24, Sanders 15 (Biden +5)


I will update as new polls are released.

Trump Lashes Out At Biden (MSNBC): Biden 48 vs Trump 39

Trump Lashes Out At Biden; Biden Leads Trump In Polls | Morning Joe | MSNBC
&list=PLDIVi-vBsOEy6jMSt_r_SMj9F5tuqdtKe&index=4&t=0s

Warren 45 to 41 and Sanders 45 to 40.
I suppose most people have seen this. The Morning Joe hosts were incredulous about Joe's lead over trump and how trump fears Biden. It's woth watching if you haven't watched it live.

538 National Polling Averages: Biden 28.5, Warren 23.25, Sanders 15.6 (Biden +5.25)

538 National Polling Averages: Biden 28.5, Warren 23.25, Sanders 15.6 (Biden +5.25)
Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/

RCP does not include all the polls listed by 538. This means their average does not include all the available data from legitimate polls 538. Like RCP, the following averages are given according to the last four polls released. The polls include both online and live polls. The sample means LV (likely voters), RV (registered voters), etc. I have listed only those with double digits Sorry about that. Consult the link above for others (Harris, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, Booker, Yang, etc.)).

Poll (Dates) (Rating ) (Sample): Joe Biden , Elizabeth Warren , Bernie Sanders


HarrisX (10/4-10/7)(C+)(LV): JB 33, EW 19, BS 16 (Biden +14)
Morning Consult (9/30-10/6) B- (LV): JB 33, EW 21, BS 19 (Biden +12)
IBD/TIPP (9/26-10/3)(A-)(RV): JB 26, EW 27, BS 10 (Warren +1)
YouGov (9/28-10/1)(B) (LV) Biden 22, Warren 26, Sanders 14.75 (Warren +4)

Averages: Biden 28.5, Warren 23.25, Sanders 15.6 (Biden +5.25)


I will update as new polls are released.

NBC: Trump is pushing a baseless conspiracy about the Bidens and China

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-impeachment-inquiry/trump-pushing-baseless-conspiracy-about-bidens-china-here-s-what-n1062551

Trump is pushing a baseless conspiracy about the Bidens and China. Here's what we know.
There's no evidence of wrongdoing on behalf of either the former vice president or his son, in China or elsewhere.

Hope this gets traction to break through the fog Trump is laying on voters heads...


After weeks of pushing debunked conspiracies about wrongdoing by former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter in Ukraine, President Donald Trump publicly urged China Thursday to investigate unfounded allegations that the younger Biden received a "payoff."

The invitation to the Chinese government, denounced by Democrats and excoriated by two Republican senators, mirrored the private behavior on which the House is partially basing their formal impeachment inquiry — using the office of the presidency to press a foreign leader to investigate a political rival. Trump has defended his actions in recent days by saying he has a right, even a duty, to root out "corruption" around the world.

But much like the president's Ukraine conspiracy theories, the serious accusations that Trump and his allies, including personal attorney Rudy Giuliani, have leveled against the Bidens with regard to China are unsupported. All the details of Hunter Biden's business dealings aren't known, since he has always been a private citizen, but there’s no evidence of wrongdoing on behalf of either Biden. Trump and his allies has yet to offer evidence of the claims, while the former vice president has said the president is the one who is corrupt.

Biden faces dual challenges from Trump, Warren

By Amie Parnes and Jonathan Easley - 10/05/19 05:13 P
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/464445-biden-faces-dual-challenges-from-trump-warren

Not really a hit piece. It acknowledges Biden's frontrunner status but shows the challenges he faces. Biden supporters need to step up and give Joe a boost. He is our best bet.

Joe Biden is at a crossroads in his quest for the Democratic presidential nomination, as President Trump fights an impeachment inquiry by unloading on the former vice president and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) overtakes him in some polls.

Trump and his allies are placing a big bet that they can tear Biden down by implicating him in a Ukraine scandal that has engulfed the administration and provoked House Democrats to launch an impeachment inquiry.

The Trump campaign is putting millions of dollars behind Biden-Ukraine ads in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, with the sole intention of damaging him among Democrats in the early-voting states.

Warren’s rise has also become a real threat to Biden, whose front-runner status is being challenged in earnest for the first time this year.

Four months out from the Iowa caucuses, Biden’s team is already talking about looking beyond the Hawkeye State, where the two most recent surveys show Warren with a slight edge. Warren has also caught Biden in recent national polls and surveys of New Hampshire and Nevada.

Third quarter fundraising numbers also have set off alarms in Biden World after he placed fourth among White House hopefuls, bringing in just over $15 million, a $7 million decline from the second quarter.

Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) posted totals in the $25 million range, while South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg brought in $19.2 million.

“This is either the beginning of the end, or the moment where they flip the switch and it all comes together,” said one Democratic fundraiser who supports Biden. “But the signs are not pointing in a good direction right now.”

Trump’s Ukraine scandal has become a major drag on Biden’s campaign, leaving allies split over the best way forward.

There is no evidence to support Trump’s claim that Biden sought to have a Ukrainian prosecutor fired to protect his son’s business interests in the country, although the appearance of a conflict is a problem.

Biden’s role in the impeachment drama ensures the matter will stay in the headlines, playing into Trump’s strategy to keep Biden on the defensive and at the center of melee.

Biden has been hitting back at Trump, most notably during a speech in Reno, Nev., this week in which he accused a “desperate and defensive” president of “smearing” his family.

The former vice president believes the attacks are borne out of Trump’s fears that he’d lose to Biden in the general election.

New: HarrisX: Biden 33, Warren 19, Sanders 16 (Biden +14)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

HARRISX Oct 4-7, 2019 C+ (774 LV)

Biden 33% (Biden +14)
Warren 19%
Sanders 16%
Harris 5%, Buttigieg 4%, O'Rourke 3%, Booker 3%, Yang 2%, Castro 1%, Klobuchar 1%
Steyer-Ryan-Gabbard-Delaney-Bullock 1%
All others 03

This poll is online, but surveys voter blocks essential to the GE and reflects Joe's strength.

IBD/TIPP Poll: Warren 27 and Biden 26 (UPDATE from RCP: Biden 26.3, Warren 26.0 (Biden + 0.3)

RCP updated based on this poll. Can't be any closer than this!
Okay, they are the two best candidates in my judgement. I still strongly believe we need Biden to take on Trump. See how other polls stack up later this week.

Sep 26-Oct 3, 2019 A- IBD/TIPP (RV)
Warren 27% (Warren +1)
Biden 26%,
Sanders `0%, Buttigieg 7%, Harris 3%, Yang 3%, O'Rourke 2%, Klobucha 1%, Gabbard 1%, Castro 1%
All others 0.

https://www.tipponline.com/
This is apparently one of the most accurate pollsters. If so, it is really only a two horse race between Biden and Warren.
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