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UncleNoel

Profile Information

Member since: Mon Jul 11, 2005, 11:05 AM
Number of posts: 858

About Me

White, male, expatriate living in the mountains of central Taiwan, Oregon permanent address, 34 years of age. Born in St. Louis. Army brat lived all over. Veteran of the Korean War (sieved in Libya and Austin, Texas). Ph.D. in anthropology and linguistics, Indiana University. Career in linguistics and ESL at numerous US and foreign institutions. Spent most of my career as a director of English as a Second Language programs. Taught at National Chi Nan Unversity, Puli, Taiwan over the years 1995-2016. Retired as an orchard keeper with my life partner Judy Wu of the Bunun Austronesian tribe in our mountain hideaway cabin, High Mountain Orchards.

Journal Archives

Politico's First and Second Choices for week ending 9/22/2019

The week ending 9/22/2019 from Politico

Top Tier:
1 Joe Biden 32%
Biden supporters' second choices: Warren, Sanders, Harris.

2 Elizabeth Warren 20%
Warren supporters' second choices: Biden, Sanders, Harris Sanders, Harris.

3 Bernie Sanders 19%
Sander supporters' second choices: Biden, Warren, Harris.
Others
4 Kamala Harris 6%
5 Pete Buttigieg 5%
6 Beto O'Rourke, 7 Andrew Yang, 8 Cory Booker: All 3%
9 Amy Klobuchar 2%
10 Tulsi Gabbard 1%

Biden is the seconde choice for both Sanders and Warren! This shows a strong standing, not the shaky lead theme.
Warren is the second choice of both Biden and Sanders supporters.
Harris is consistently the third choice.

Updating with Favorable ratings. Note top tier are not known by only 1%

Voters' opinion of the candidates
Candidate Favorable / Unfavorable / Never Heard of
Bernie Sanders 73% / 20% / 1%
Joe Biden 71% / 21% / 1%
Elizabeth Warren 66% / 14% / 8%
Kamala Harris 55% / 20% / 11%

Scroll down on he link to see the 0thers.

Three Polls up to 9/26 still have Biden ahead by double digits

Haven't seen this posted Maybe I missed it The three previous polls had Warren up higher, but this is the latest and in line with polls before those three came out.

CP Average 9/13 - 9/24 28.4 21.1 17.1 5.5 5.0 3.3 2.5 1.8 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.8 Biden +7.3
Harvard-Harris 9/22 - 9/24 28 17 16 3 6 3 3 2 1 2 1 -- 2 Biden +11

Not posted on CP:

HarrisX C+) from 538 (LV 9/13 - 9/24) has JB 31, EW 20 BS 13 Harris 7...Biden +11

HarrisX C+) from 538 (RV 9/13 - 9/24) has JB 28, EW 15 BS 14 Harris 7...Biden +13

The movement upward in the three polls for Warren is not reflected ion these polls.

I ike the sound of it: MSNBC's Morning Joe caes Trumps mess the "Ukraine cnspiracy"!

https://www.rawstory.com/2019/09/msnbcs-morning-joe-breaks-down-shocking-revelations-against-barr-attorney-general-looks-like-hes-part-of-the-ukraine-conspiracy/

The VP and AG have been thrown under the bus. Hope the VP and AG are included among those impeached. Nancy as acting Prez until the election? Sounds good to me also.acting

Reuters/Ipsos Data: Trump/Biden/Ukraine Survey

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/reuters-ipsos-data-Trump-Biden-Ukraine-2019-09-24
Full Story:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/biden-rises-in-poll-as-ukraine-scandal-unfolds-interest-in-impeachment-drops-reuters-poll-idUSKBN1W9335

Washington, D.C., September 24, 2019 – A new Reuters/Ipsos public opinion survey of 1,005 Americans shows that 74% of Americans have heard of the situation involving President Trump, Joe Biden and the president of Ukraine, and 17% say they have heard a “great deal” about it. When asked what they have heard about Trump, Biden and the president of Ukraine:

37% say they heard that the story came about because of a whistleblower complaint that the administration tried to cover up;
29% say they heard President Trump is trying to coerce Ukraine into investigating Joe Biden;
27% say they heard President Trump is abusing the power of the office of the presidency;
14% say they heard Joe Biden has improperly pushed for the firing of a Ukrainian general prosecutor.

When asked what they think of the situation involving Trump, Biden, and Ukraine, 39% say that President Trump is trying to smear Joe Biden ahead of the 2020 presidential campaign, 26% say they believe Joe Biden is trying to cover up a potential scandal that could hurt him in the 2020 presidential campaign, and 35% are unsure. Partisanship plays a large role in perceptions: 72% of Democratic registered voters believe Trump is trying to smear Biden, compared to just 17% of Republican registered voters. More than half of Republican registered voters believe that Biden is trying to cover up a potential scandal (53%) compared to just 9% of Democratic registered voters who feel the same way.


New Reuters/Ipsos Poll Sep 23-24:

Biden 22
Warren 17
Sanders 14
Buttigieg 4
Harris 4
Margin of error +/- 4

This is cited by the Economist:

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

I don't see it on the Ipsos site?

Double Whammy! Hits on Warren and Biden from The Hill

Welcome to the Dual Front runners 'The Hits are On Page'.

Rising with the Hill's Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti jump in with both feet on our two great candidates. Watch at the link below.

Krystal Ball: Dems on track to nominate Warren and lose to Trump; Saagar Enjeti: Ignore media, investigate Bidens

More power to the Democratic nominee, I will vote Blue and fight for either one of them or any other Dem until I'm blue in the face.

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) came out against former Vice President Joe Biden this weekend

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but she is dead wrong about Joe.

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) came out against former Vice President Joe Biden this weekend, saying it’s “very clear” that he’s the wrong choice to take on President Donald Trump in next year’s election.

“There are few people who fit into the kind of progress that we all want to see in this country. And I would say he is not one of them,” Omar told the Guardian, adding: "I think it has been very clear to many of the people who have been creating the kind of movement that is exciting generations, that we want somebody who really has a plan that is going to tackle a lot of the systematic challenges that we have, and he doesn’t.”


There will be no systematic changes from a "movement that is exciting generations," if the candidate who passes this muster cannot be elected, or if elected, cannot pass legistlation to further the agenda. We need to get someone elected who can get things done.

Go Joe!

Corn Pop & Pop Corn: Post-Debate (3) Poll Analysis

Good analysis of where we stand on Presidential Pimary polls since the third debate on VOX:

[link:https://www.vox.com/2019/9/18/20872216/warren-biden-yang-democratic-presidential-polls|

Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren are the top two candidates in the presidential race, according to most polls taken since last week’s debate.

Of the five national polls taken since then, all show the former vice president continuing to lead, and four show Warren in second place — and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in third. (The fifth poll shows Sanders in second and Warren in third).

A poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal shows Warren 11 points ahead of Sanders, but polls from HarrisX, SurveyUSA, and YouGov show her leading him by 1 to 4 points, and a Morning Consult poll shows her trailing Sanders by 2. On average, that’s a 3.2 percent margin for Warren over Sanders. That’s bigger than before, but it’s not clear whether it will hold up (or expand) in the coming weeks.

As for the other candidates, the worst news is for California Sen. Kamala Harris. Every new national poll shows her clearly falling behind the top three candidates. In fact, she’s barely ahead of South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg in two polls, tied with him in a third, and trails him in the other two.

And beyond the top five, Andrew Yang, Beto O’Rourke, and Cory Booker all have about 3 percent support each in national polls since the debate — a slight improvement for all three but not enough to bump any of them up to the top tier of candidates.

The big picture is that the debate may have solidified the shape of the field — with Biden in first and Warren and Sanders probably in that order behind him.

But one big question going forward is whether Warren will manage to put some distance between herself and Sanders, emerging as the clear second-place candidate rather than essentially tied with Sanders (as polling averages currently show).


RCP is still showing the average with one pre-debate poll. If we drop that poll and only have the six post-debate polls (updated to include Florida Atlantic University) plus one HarrisX poll from 538, we get the following:

(I left out the lower tier candidates; the polling there is also interesting, but I am focusing on the upper and mid-tier candidates.

Post-debate (3) Polling Data [Hope I got it all correct--done on the run]

Average: JB 31, EW 20, BS 16, Harris 6, Buttigieg 6 (Biden +11)
HarrisX (LV) 9/15-9/18: JB 34, EW 18, BS 14, Harris 5, Buttigieg 5 (Biden +16)
FOX (LV) 9/15-9/17: JB 29, EW 16, BS 18, Harris 7, Buttigieg 5 (Biden +13)
Economist 9/14-9/17: JB 26, EW 21, BS 14, Harris 6, Buttigieg 9 (Biden +5)
SUSA 9/13-9/16: JB 33, EW 19, BS 17, Harris 6, Buttigieg 5 (Biden +14)
FLAtlanticU 9/12-9/15: JB 34, EW 24, BS 14, Harris 4, Buttigieg 5 (Biden +10)
NBC/WSJ 9/13-9/16: JB 31, EW 25, BS 14, Harris 5, Buttigieg 7 (Biden +6)
Morn-Cons 9/13-9/15: JB 32, EW 18, BS 20, Harris 6, Buttigieg 5 (Biden +12)


This clearly shows Biden well ahead despite the Corn Pop, and Warren not so much closing the gap as the Pop Corn show of the media hype. In fact, Sanders cannot be ruled out here as Sanders and Warren are playing leapfrog for second place. More power to her, though. While I am a Biden supporter, I respect Warren and her supporters. She is strong, smart, and knowledgeable and would make a great President. I worry though about her electability.

As for Biden, his durability belies the narrative that his lead is fragile. It is, in fact, solid.

I like statistics. Though not an expert, I worked with Morris Dees years back when he was first beginning the Southern Poverty Law Center. I did over a hundred attachments to a federal court redistricting suit for the state legislature demonstrating racial bias in the gerrymandered Alabama legislative districts ([E.D.] Nixpn vs Brewer). We won the case and 15 Blacks were elected in the redrawn legislative districts. The first time Blacks were elected to the legislature since Reconstruction after the civil war. I also presented a paper written with Amrit Lal, Black Power Alabama, to the McGovern Committee on Party Reform in Meridian, Mississippi (Birch Bayh chairing). Almost got fired when the governor saw my testimony on TV. Eventually had to resign when thrown in jail by a Montgomery policeman who later became a body guard for Wallace during his jpresidential campaign. More on my involvement here:

[link:https://www.crmvet.org/vet/schutz.htm|

We went all the way with McGovern which is one of the reasons I am a moderated-left Obama-Biden Dem.

Bloomberg: Joe Biden took a victory lap Friday

Another opinion piece that points out Joe's strong performance.

[link:https://news.yahoo.com/biden-rivals-learn-attacks-only-211324509.html|

Biden’s Rivals Learn That Attacks Only Made Him Stronger


The Democratic presidential front-runner boasted about his performance in the third Democratic debate during a fundraiser in Houston, telling guests that most of the other candidates on stage highlighted their policy differences with him rather than attacking him directly.

“Fewer and fewer criticize me,” Biden said Friday to laughter from donors at a sprawling apartment in the affluent River Oaks area.

Most of the candidates who have directly criticized Biden on the debate stage or campaign trail haven’t benefited from doing so. Julian Castro’s confrontation with Biden on Thursday was largely panned after he seemed to question the 76-year-old former vice president’s mental acuity in one of the sharpest clashes of the night. Candidates including Cory Booker and Kamala Harris who had singled out Biden at previous debates largely held their fire.

“I think Secretary Castro, who likes to talk about learning from history, clearly didn’t learn from the first two debates that taking personal cheap shots at Vice President Biden actually doesn’t work out that well for the candidate who throws that shot and particularly because it was factually inaccurate,” said Anita Dunn, Biden’s top communications adviser.

“What I saw last night is fewer and fewer personal attacks that were, you know, it was about what are you going to do in the future,” Biden later told reporters as he returned to the campus of Texas Southern University to tour its student center.

Other campaigns are seeing peril in attacking Biden without a clear game plan.

“The voters are smarter than candidates sometimes give them credit for. And if a cheap shot is a cheap shot, they see that,” said Lis Smith, a top aide to Pete Buttigieg. “If a sucker punch is a sucker punch, they see that. And if you think that having your consultants create a made-for-TV moment is going to make you president, you’re wrong and people can see right through it.”

Having witnessed Biden survive attacks and his own self-inflicted wounds since he entered the race nearly five months ago, other campaigns and their allies are still hoping he will falter and that their candidates will be able to capitalize.

“It’s always going to be difficult to take down someone like Biden when there’s 10 people in the field,” said Arizona Congressman Ruben Gallego, who endorsed Harris before Thursday’s debate.

“I do think when voters get to focus on four or five candidates they’re going to be able to do more of a comparison,” Gallego said. “Biden, to his credit, is a very well-respected vice president with a very popular president. I think candidates like Kamala are going to be able to overcome the natural incumbency that Biden has, but it’s not going to be done overnight.”

In particular, candidates have tried to highlight weaknesses in Biden’s long political record, arguing he is out of step with the current Democratic electorate, which has become more diverse and left-leaning in recent years. But Biden said Friday that he didn’t mind when the moderators dug into his record from his earliest years in politics, taking a gentle jab at Elizabeth Warren, who was a Republican until the 2000s.

“This is about the future, this is not about the past,” he said. “I love it when people say, ‘in 1972 you said.’ Well, in 1972, half the people on the stage were Republican for God’s sakes. You all think I’m kidding!”

Biden also took veiled shots at Warren’s long list of policy proposals, which she has been praised for and turned into a campaign slogan.

“We need more than plans. We need a president – we need someone who can execute plans,” he said. “And that’s what I hope this debate gets down to ultimately: What is it not that you want to do but what do you think you can do.”

Heading out of the debate, Biden is also in some ways campaigning on a different track than the rest of the field. While others will spend the weekend in Washington for a Congressional Black Caucus meeting — where he will be represented by his wife, Jill — he’ll be the featured speaker at a Sunday ceremony commemorating the 56th anniversary of the bombing that killed four girls at the 16th Street Baptist Church in Birmingham, Alabama.

The Birmingham appearance is yet another moment of “elevating him” and reminding voters that he is “able to do something that Donald Trump can’t,” senior adviser Symone Sanders said. “Regularly, we talk about Donald Trump never really rising to meet the moment when the country is faced with something and this will just be another contrast to that.”

Doug Schoen, of Fox News, has this take of Biden's performance in the Debate.

What he says matches what I felt about Joe's performance and how many eople will see it. It's Fox News, but Douglas E. Schoen has more than 30 years experience as a pollster and political consultant. He also has a new book is "Putin's Master Plan" and has been critical of Trump.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/doug-schoen-democratic-debate-detroit-joe-biden-kamala-harris-gabbard-inslee

I am only posting what he said about Joe. I don't believe his opinion that Sanders and Warren were losers, but as far as the health care debate goes, W4A might have be seen as the loser.

Former Vice President Joe Biden dominated the debate stage and weathered the attacks of nine opponents for the Democratic presidential nomination Wednesday night, emerging the clear winner and standing by his promise to not be “overly polite.”
In possibly the most contentious Democratic primary debate thus far, frontrunners Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris of California sparred with each other and the other candidates over the issues of health care, immigration, race relations and climate change.
Following Harris’ and Biden’s heated exchange over busing to achieve school integration in the first debate, Biden was far more aggressive than in his previous debate performance in responding to attacks from every candidate on stage.
The former vice president delivered his message compellingly and convincingly. Even during his less strong moments, Biden remained the focal point of the conversation, speaking for over 21 minutes – more than any other candidate on stage.
On health care, in particular, Biden displaying his in-depth policy knowledge while also rebutting repeated attacks from Harris. Biden gave a strong defense of his pragmatic plan to strengthen ObamaCare, while the confusion and lack of clarity around Harris’ plan hindered her position.
Biden also successfully took aim at what he has called Harris’ “have it every which way approach.”
Health care “is the single most important issue facing the public,” Biden said to Harris. “To be very blunt ... you can't beat President Trump with doubletalk on this plan.”


However, I disagree with him on the seismic shift away from the centrist position. I think Joe is right on mark.

Despite Biden’s strong performance and solid frontrunner status, it is clear that the party has seismically shifted away from the centrist Democratic Party of the 1990’s, making his path to the nomination far from certain.
Moreover, despite Biden’s strong performance and solid frontrunner status, it is clear that the party has seismically shifted away from the centrist Democratic Party of the 1990’s, making his path to the nomination far from certain.
Though Biden controlled this debate in many ways, his two leading opponents were absent from the stage of the CNN debate in Detroit. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, both competing for the support of the far left, debated Tuesday night.
***
Under attack for being too moderate, Biden delivered a powerful response when asked how he can appeal to progressives in the Democratic Party. He drew on his past success in winning elections and scoring major achievements in governing during his long career and emphasized his clear appeal to Midwest and working-class voters.
“I was asked to manage an $87 billion plan that would be spent in a total of 18 months that revived this state and many others … and it kept us out of a depression,” Biden said, referring to his work as vice president to help the auto industry and the country as a whole climb out of the Great Recession shortly after he took office with former President Barack Obama.

Biden said he led the economic recovery effort with just a fraction of 1 percent waste or fraud, “and our administration pushed bailing General Motors out saving tens of thousands of jobs here in this state.”
Ultimately, the strength of Biden’s performance made it clear that he is prepared to combine the policy knowledge and experience necessary to take on President Trump and potentially win in November 2020. He clearly remains the candidate who will be tough to beat for the Democratic presidential nomination.


Other aspects of his presentation might be criticized, but on the health issue I think he knocked it out of the park.


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