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UncleNoel

Profile Information

Member since: Mon Jul 11, 2005, 11:05 AM
Number of posts: 858

About Me

White, male, expatriate living in the mountains of central Taiwan, Oregon permanent address, 34 years of age. Born in St. Louis. Army brat lived all over. Veteran of the Korean War (sieved in Libya and Austin, Texas). Ph.D. in anthropology and linguistics, Indiana University. Career in linguistics and ESL at numerous US and foreign institutions. Spent most of my career as a director of English as a Second Language programs. Taught at National Chi Nan Unversity, Puli, Taiwan over the years 1995-2016. Retired as an orchard keeper with my life partner Judy Wu of the Bunun Austronesian tribe in our mountain hideaway cabin, High Mountain Orchards.

Journal Archives

Steyer at around 12%. Imagine if those votes had gone for Joe!

Not complaining though. With about 30% of the votes counted, Joe is above 50%. Even if it drops a bit (and it may not), the pollsters did not call the scope of his victory. Second in Nevada set the stage. A stong debate, Clyburn
s powerful endorsement, and a grand CNN Town Hall turned it all around. Biden was in his stride and will leap forward from the Leap year surge-- or rather Tsunami!!

I am taking time to thank God for SC and America. Joe will beat Trump like a drum.


The Biden Burn and the Biden Bullet to the WH. Thanks for those words.

Biden gets a late burst of cash at a key moment

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/29/biden-donors-2020-118280


Joe Biden, who just days ago appeared at risk of losing the donors he relies on to power his campaign, is receiving a much-needed jolt of cash as he heads into the South Carolina primary.

Biden’s campaign fundraising has popped upward since Tuesday’s debate, totaling $2 million in four days ahead of the South Carolina primary. Supporters are coming out to his rescue: Hollywood fundraiser James Costos told POLITICO on Friday that he’s backing Biden and will be planning events and traveling for him in the coming weeks. And the pro-Biden Unite the Country super PAC raised $2.5 million on Thursday alone, enabling the group to book and then expand its first Super Tuesday ad buy, a seven-figure spend on digital and radio ads.


538 Election Update: Biden Surges In South Carolina

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-biden-surges-in-south-carolina/?yptr=yahoo

snip//

After former Vice President Joe Biden finished second in the Nevada caucuses, someone at his post-election speech shouted out, “Comeback kid!” It seemed like an odd claim at the time — Biden finished more than 26 percentage points behind Sen. Bernie Sanders (going by county delegates). But based on the latest polls, Biden may indeed be experiencing a comeback in South Carolina, which votes on Saturday.

As Nevada went to the polls last Saturday, the FiveThirtyEight forecast considered Sanders the slight front-runner in South Carolina, with a 1 in 2 (46 percent) chance of winning it. It gave Biden a 2 in 5 (40 percent) chance. Since then, in a reminder of how fluid primaries can be, Biden’s chances have skyrocketed. As of Thursday at 5:38 p.m. Eastern (?, Biden has a 14 in 15 (94 percent) chance of winning the Palmetto State, while Sanders’s odds are down to 1 in 20 (5 percent).tps://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-biden-surges-in-south-carolina

The first hint of Biden’s comeback came two days ago: Biden had only a small lead on Sanders in our South Carolina forecast at the time, but the first survey conducted entirely after Nevada, from Public Policy Polling, showed Biden up 15 points. At that point, the poll was an outlier. Well, not anymore. Since Wednesday, we’ve gotten six new polls of South Carolina, most of which have given Biden commanding leads.

....

It’s tempting to chalk up Biden’s comeback to his performance in Tuesday’s debate or his Wednesday endorsement by Rep. Jim Clyburn, who carries a lot of weight in South Carolina Democratic politics. But in reality, the polls above were mostly conducted before either of those two events. Instead, the dividing line seems to be the Nevada caucuses. In six South Carolina polls conducted between New Hampshire1 and Nevada, Biden averaged 26 percent and Sanders averaged 22 percent. In the six polls conducted entirely since Nevada,2 Biden has averaged 35 percent and Sanders has averaged 20 percent.

It’s certainly odd that Biden, and not Sanders, would have gotten a bump out of a state where Sanders won nearly twice as many raw votes, but that’s what it looks like. Perhaps it is the manifestation of establishment backlash against the suddenly-real prospect of Sanders becoming the nominee.

And accordingly, that prospect is now getting less likely again. As FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver wrote earlier today, Biden winning South Carolina — especially by a big margin — would put him in good position to win, or at least net many delegates from, the many Southern states that vote just three days later, on Super Tuesday. That could set the table for a drawn-out nomination fight between Sanders and Biden — one that could even lead to a contested convention.


I think Joe will continue to surge nationally in the primaries to come.

MoJoe!

Why My 'Nana' From South Carolina Bodes Well for Joe Biden on Saturday

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/28/my-nana-is-from-south-carolina-and-she-has-thoughts-about-the-primary-118105

Sweet, pleasant read:

snips//

BUCKSPORT, S.C. — If the vote of 82-year-old Ruby Brown is any indication at all, Joe Biden is going to do really well in South Carolina.
...
Since 1992, every eventual nominee other than John Kerry has won the state, buoyed by the black vote. Though black people aren’t a monolith, South Carolina is the first test of black support and a good barometer for how the black vote might shake out in other Southern states.


Go Nana, Joe is MoJoe!

Just sent my last 10 to Joe...Leap big on leap year day, Man!

Already cleaned out my schecking account so I maxed my credit card. No big deal. Joe is not supported by billionaires...

On the brink of th SC vote: New Emerson Poll has Biden 41; RCP Average 34.3

Lookin' Good, Joe! Kinda Nevada in reverse,but with more low numbers after Sanders.

Biden 41, Sanders 25, Sreyer 11, Buttigieg 11, Warren 5, Klobuchar 6, Gabbard 2



Biden seems to be really smashing it. I pray the voters turn out in droves and make it so.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html



POLITICO: "Joe Biden's campaign isn't dead yet"--in fact it is 'surging'

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/27/joe-biden-south-carolina-comeback-118006

Rare positive view from a Biden detractor:

snip//

CHARLESTON, S.C. — Just as his White House bid appeared to be sputtering to an ugly end, there are signs of life for Joe Biden still.

And perhaps more than that.

A second-place finish in Nevada, a major endorsement in South Carolina, a strong debate Tuesday and a pair of polls showing him with a staggering lead here have given new hope to his campaign. Money is flowing anew into his war chest, as well as to a super PAC supporting him.

Armed with those data points, the campaign and super PAC are telling donors that Biden — given his strength among African-American voters and momentum kicking in at the right time — is quickly emerging as the alternative to frontrunner Bernie Sanders.

“The debate was really a huge turning point,” said Amanda Loveday, a senior adviser with the PAC and former director of the South Carolina Democratic Party. Donors who had pulled back from Biden, wondering whether Mike Bloomberg would claim the moderate mantle, have started digging into their pockets again, she said. “That got them off their hands.”

And it got rank-and-file voters on their feet. For a campaign that regularly struggles to attract big and energetic crowds, Biden drew something rarely seen at his rally at Coastal Carolina University in Conway on Thursday: a long line of enthusiastic supporters.

On Thursday, Biden announced on social media that his campaign raised $1.2 million from nearly 30,000 donors the day after the debate, in which Biden turned in his strongest performance of the 10 encounters with his rivals.
Why is Biden still polling so well?

Unite the Country, the super PAC backing Biden, would not yet reveal the level of donations coming in but it did purchase digital ads in the six figures.

While that's a meager amount compared to how much rival campaigns are spending, Biden's surrogates are confident that a commanding win on Saturday will yield momentum and money.

“I feel confident that Joe Biden will win here by double digits. And he’s going to do well on Super Tuesday,” said Dick Harpootlian, a key South Carolina organizer for Biden. Harpootlian took it a step further. “Without Bloomberg in this race, he would sweep Super Tuesday and Bernie would be a distant memory.”

Cash-strapped, and with the campaign set to shift to an array of far-flung states, Biden has been more aggressive seeking out earned media. He's made a series of appearances on local and national TV recently, a noticeable shift from when he was the frontrunner and sitting on a bigger war chest.

The newest data point boosting Biden is a Monmouth poll showing he has a 20-point lead over Bernie Sanders in South Carolina, 36 percent to 16 percent. The poll, and others like it in South Carolina, was welcome news for a campaign buffeted by three straight losses in a row in the other early states. Those losses had insiders writing his campaign off for dead and Biden and his surrogates repeatedly insisting that he was in the midst of a comeback after last week’s second-place finish in Nevada.

A national poll from Fox News, however, was almost the inverse in showing Sanders with 31 percent support to Biden’s 18 percent.

But Biden’s campaign said that a big win in South Carolina will change the national polls. His campaign had always planned to use South Carolina as a springboard into the run of Super Tuesday states and beyond to make the case that he does better than any other Democrat with voters of color. But Sanders’s win in Nevada, where he racked up big margins with Latinos, challenged that narrative.

The newest data point boosting Biden is a Monmouth poll showing he has a 20-point lead over Bernie Sanders in South Carolina, 36 percent to 16 percent.

The state polls like FL are ticking up and the national polls will soon begin reflecting Biden's strength.

MoJoe GO!

2020 polls: Biden leading heading into South Carolina with Steyer a surprise second

https://www.yahoo.com/news/2020-polls-biden-leading-heading-194832262.html

snip//

Former Vice President Joe Biden has an 18 point lead over his Democratic rivals heading into Saturday's South Carolina primary according to a Clemson University poll released on Wednesday.

The poll reported that 35 per cent of respondents supported Mr Biden in the upcoming primary. Entrepreneur Tom Steyer, who has focused campaign advertising on the state, is in second place at 17 per cent.

The current party frontrunner, Senator Bernie Sanders, comes third, polling at 13 per cent.

Senator Elizabeth Warren and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg are tied at eight per cent, while Senator Amy Klobuchar is on four per cent. Congresswoman Tusli Gabbard is on two per cent.

JOE IS SURGING IN SC. MOJOE!

Joe Scarborogh: Biden turns in his best performance of the cycle

https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/biden-turns-in-his-best-performance-of-the-cycle-joe-79457861507

He also has a segment on ow Bloomberg is hurting Biden and what would happen to Biden's campaign if Bloomberg dropped out. He suggests that since Bloomberg got in the race because he saw Sanders and Warren tromping him, that if Biden wins big in SC that he should drop out Sunday morning so that Bidens lead in many states will be reinstated.

Joe considered Biden's strong debate performance and the Clyburn endorsement as a game changer.

https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/what-20-race-would-mean-for-biden-if-bloomberg-dropped-out-79523397895

538 is also looking at what a big win by Biden would mean for the race.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-race-looks-like-if-biden-wins-or-doesnt-win-south-carolina/?yptr=yahoo

snip//

But you can also see how momentum could start to turn against Sanders. By “momentum,” I don’t mean something ineffable, but rather the shifts in the polls that could occur as the result of Super Tuesday, as well as decisions by other candidates to stay in the race or drop out.1

In the scenario above — after a big South Carolina win — Biden would be the plurality favorite in every Southern state on Super Tuesday, namely: Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, Oklahoma and Arkansas. While Sanders would remain the favorite in every non-Southern state2 except Minnesota3 including — critically — California, where he has a huge polling lead and where 415 pledged delegates are at stake.

But even if Sanders racks up big margins in California, this isn’t a great outcome for him from a delegate standpoint. He’d only be about 150 delegates ahead of Biden out of a total of 3,979 pledged delegates eventually to be awarded.

And from a narrative standpoint — and the polling bounce that results from it — it could be fairly bad for him. Sanders might not get very many wins in the Eastern and Central time zone states that the media will cover heavily early in the evening. And the wins Sanders would get would mostly be in white, liberal states where he was expected to win — until California reports its results, but that creates its own problems for Sanders.




I'M SENDING JOR MY LAST 10 BUCKS IN MY ACCOUNT TODAY!!

BIDEN HAS THE MOJO(e)


Another Politico article solely on Biden--good, despite the corny title

Biden finally shows up to the debate stage — just in time
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/26/biden-democratic-debate-117654

The former VP's strongest debate performance to date could help reassure supporters ahead of a make-or-break stretch for his campaign. By NATASHA KORECKI 02/26/2020 12:33 AM EST


Joe Biden turned in a debate performance Tuesday night that might have just saved him from elimination.

Desperately in need of some positive news heading into the must-win South Carolina primary on Saturday and then Super Tuesday, the former vice president snapped a string of lousy debate outings that had stoked doubts about his viability as a candidate, let alone a frontrunner.

He went on the attack. He defended Barack Obama’s honor. Biden, who rarely riles a crowd, was often greeted by cheers, whistles and applause. When Bernie Sanders tried to hit back at Biden, he was booed.

Though not entirely devoid of the verbal misfires and rambling syntax that has plagued him, it was the strongest of his 10 debates. And it came just in time: South Carolina has long been Biden’s firewall, given his appeal to African American voters, who play an outsize role in the Democratic primary electorate.

The Biden team tried to sell his distant-second finish to Sanders in Nevada as the start of a turnaround. But only victory in South Carolina will truly reset his candidacy. His longtime lead in the polls began shrinking after his losses in Iowa and New Hampshire.

But Biden's outing Tuesday night, coupled with the expected endorsement from powerful House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, will likely help him reassure anxious supporters. Clyburn wields huge influence in South Carolina politics.

Early on, Biden laid into Sanders over the Vermont senator’s past votes on guns and on Sanders’ flirtation with primarying Barack Obama in 2012.

“When we talk about progressive, let's talk about being progressive,” Biden began.

Biden went on to cite the mass shooting at the nearby Mother Emanuel church where a white supremacist killed nine people in 2015. “Bernie voted five times against the Brady bill, and wanted a waiting period … of 12 hours. I'm not saying he's responsible for the nine deaths, but that man would not have been able to get that weapon with the waiting period" he wanted.

Sanders responded saying he regretted some votes in the Senate and pointed back at controversial votes Biden had taken, including on the Iraq war.

Biden also alluded to Sanders’ flirtation with attempting to primary Obama, an issue that’s the focus of a new digital ad from the Biden campaign.

Biden also had his fair share of luck. He was able to escape the crossfire since billionaire Mike Bloomberg played the role of villain all night. And Sanders, as the frontrunner, drew most of the arrows, not Biden.

But Biden likely scored points when Sanders attempted to defend recent controversial remarks about Fidel Castro by likening them to past remarks made by Obama.

“The fact of the matter is [Obama], in fact, does not, did not, has never embraced an authoritarian regime and does not now,” Biden said to applause.

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