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UncleNoel

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Member since: Mon Jul 11, 2005, 11:05 AM
Number of posts: 858

About Me

White, male, expatriate living in the mountains of central Taiwan, Oregon permanent address, 34 years of age. Born in St. Louis. Army brat lived all over. Veteran of the Korean War (sieved in Libya and Austin, Texas). Ph.D. in anthropology and linguistics, Indiana University. Career in linguistics and ESL at numerous US and foreign institutions. Spent most of my career as a director of English as a Second Language programs. Taught at National Chi Nan Unversity, Puli, Taiwan over the years 1995-2016. Retired as an orchard keeper with my life partner Judy Wu of the Bunun Austronesian tribe in our mountain hideaway cabin, High Mountain Orchards.

Journal Archives

Politico snips on Biden's excellent performance

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/25/democratic-debate-takeaways-117653

Who had the best night? Who had the worst night? Politio seldom gives Biden the time of day, so this is choice.

snips//

For months, Biden only barely survived debates — pummeled here, bumbling there. On Tuesday, he offered a cogent defense of the Obama era, highlighting his experience on issues ranging from gun control to funding for the Centers for Disease Control. He said, “I’m not going to be quiet anymore,” and he wasn’t. Meanwhile, with Biden’s elevation, Buttigieg suffered. He could draw contrasts with Sanders. But Biden has a big part of that lane, and he didn’t give any of it up tonight.

Korecki: The Biden that his supporters and team always wanted finally showed up Tuesday night. He was substantive, feisty and forceful. Biden needs South Carolina to keep his presidential bid alive. He showed that tonight. He began by immediately laying into Sanders on the Vermont senator’s past votes on guns and on Sanders’ flirtation with primarying Barack Obama in 2012. Both points knocked Sanders on his heels — something that so far has rarely happened in this race.

Korecki: This debate may have just helped Biden seal the deal in South Carolina. As POLITICO reported on Sunday, powerful House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn is to endorse the former vice president Wednesday morning. Though the deal with Clyburn was already cut, Biden’s performance tonight only makes it an easier sell for Clyburn, who wields huge influence in South Carolina politics. The debate performance and Clyburn’s backing help create much-needed momentum moving into Saturday’s primary.


Despite their negatives on some good previous debate performances, they did not hold back this time. Thye also noted that astronger Biden is a negative for Sanders.


Markos Moulitsas: Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders winners SC debate

Markos Moulitsas, Founder of Daily Kos <campaigns@dailykos.com>

snip//

Winners and losers from the South Carolina Democratic debate
.
In the order that the winners were presented:

Winner: Joe Biden
Perhaps his best debate to date, he was comfortable in an audience in a state that clearly loves Joe. The fact that this is his make-or-break moment didn’t hurt. He was focused and cogent. Unlike other debates, Biden didn’t lose focus mid-answer, or trail off into incoherence at the end of one. It still grates how he wrote every bill and passed every law and met every person and nothing ever got done without him. Also, his interrupting all over Amy Klobuchar on the gun issue was painful. But overall, in an obnoxious, poorly moderated debate, he did what he needed to do. Perhaps more than anyone on stage, he was cognizant of where he was, and what Saturday’s electorate looked like (Black). His final-answer promise of a Black female Supreme Court justice was pitch-perfect.


Second Winner: Elizabeth Warren

Warren was the only candidate who didn’t think "louder is better”. She kept her composure and demeanor the entire debate, and even exploited the shitty moderation to good effect—more than once stepping in to answer a question without even bothering to raise her hand. Clearly, rules were for suckers, and she took advantage of the chaos.

Unfortunately, her performance wasn’t as strong as last week’s, and she should’ve pivoted off Bloomberg quite a bit more. There was no use in kicking that carcass dead. He isn’t siphoning votes from her. Bernie Sanders is. And other than some nods to effectiveness, she didn’t take him on directly.


Third Winner: Bernie Sanders
As was expected, Sanders took a great deal of incoming. However, he fended most off by simply ignoring the questions and talking about whatever it was he wanted to talk about. Obnoxious? Perhaps, but by the time he finished talking, everyone had forgotten the question. It was an effective debate tactic, and one that frankly, Mike Bloomberg should’ve used himself.

At one point, Sanders began looking flustered, unused to all the incoming, but he was bailed out by an opportune commercial break, and for the most part, in the second half of the debate, the rest of the candidates on stage forgot that they were supposed to challenge the frontrunner. A sustained attack might have damaged him more. So he either emerged with little overall damage, or the gun stuff, in particular, knocked him down a peg or two. I’m guessing the former.


Losers:

Amy Klobuchar: "...she continued to give no reason for sticking around."
Pete Buttigieg: "He, in particular, was a victim to the shitty moderation...".
The billionaires: "Mike Bloomberg’s carcass showed up on stage, just for Warren to kick it dead some more."
Tom Steyer:"there’s no reason for him to be in this race. There never was. There never will be. He should go back to doing what he was doing prior—funding progressive efforts to turn our country Blue."

Biden is smaking it in SC Poll Averages-Joe Soaring

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#South_Carolina_primary



Rising in the polls as moderates move to Joe:



And here are the 100% Nevada results.

Clyburn poised to endorse Biden in big boost before S.C. primary

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/23/clyburn-to-endorse-biden-south-carolina-116986

The House majority whip wields enormous sway in the state, especially among African Americans.

House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, who wields enormous influence in his home state of South Carolina, is planning to endorse Joe Biden on Wednesday, multiple sources with knowledge of the Democrat’s plans told POLITICO.

The planned endorsement is expected three days ahead of the state's Saturday primary, giving Biden an important boost in a state that will likely determine the fate of his candidacy. Clyburn, the highest ranking African American in Congress, has long been close with Biden and has been open about his affinity for the former vice president during the Democratic primary.


Biden won the majority support of Black voters in Nevada and still holds the lead in SC. The debate, Clyburn's endorsement, and the campaign this week will give Joe momentum this week.

Biden to grab second in Nevada, above threshold to win delegates, NBC projects

https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-grab-second-nevada-above-021845339.html

Only Bernie and Joe left standing (96.3% reporting). The only candidates to get Nevada delegates. .



NBC News•February 24, 2020

CHARLESTON, S.C. — Former Vice President Joe Biden will finish second in the Nevada Democratic presidential caucuses, NBC News projected Sunday night, and will likely earn seven national convention delegates.

The second-place finish, added to the endorsement of South Carolina's top Democrat, Rep. Jim Clyburn — which will come Wednesday, NBC News has learned — will give Biden momentum heading into this week's South Carolina primary.
***
Official backing from Clyburn, colloquially known as the "South Carolina Kingmaker" for his heavy influence in the state's Democratic politics, could help cement what Biden has predicted would be a first-place finish in South Carolina. Clyburn, who as majority whip is the third-ranking Democrat in the House, will formally endorse Biden ahead of the primary at an event Wednesday, according to two people with firsthand knowledge.

He is the highest-ranking person in House leadership to have backed Biden's candidacy to date.

In a live interview with MSNBC's Kasie Hunt on Sunday night, Biden said he was unaware of Clyburn's backing being made official, adding that it would be "the single most valuable endorsement."


Joe will go to SC with MOMENTUM.

Some details in NBC's entrance polls with Biden strengths that might loom large in the SC

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-primary-elections/nevada-results

Exaggerated statements that Sanders won in all demographic regions is not quite true, though he did very, very well across the board. We note the following caveats from NBC’s entrance polls.

While sanders fared better among POC in general (Non-whites (35%): Biden 23, Sanders 42), Biden fared a Great deal better among Black voters (11%): Biden 39, Sanders 27.

Biden also beat Sanders by a great deal for voters who were 65 or older (28%): Biden 29, Sanders 11, though in the age group 45+ (63%)the number was about even: Biden 23, Sanders 20.

Biden also edged Sanders for Moderates (34%): Biden 25, Sanders 22 and on issues Biden beat Sanders 29 to 15. On beating Trump there were about even, Sanders (23) edging Biden
(21) by two points.

Other than these provisos, Sanders win is impressive. But some of these exceptions might figure large in SC and some other states.

Biden running strong second at 25%. All others below 15%

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/nevada?xid=ec_btn_nevada
Well, Pete is right at 15%


Only 9%, but here it is. Go Joe!

Hope his numbers go up.

Poll: Biden leads Sanders, Steyer in South Carolina

https://www.yahoo.com/news/poll-biden-leads-sanders-steyer-222406583.html
Winthrop University poll released Thursday,
Biden 24%, Sanders’ 19%, and Steyer 15% [Biden +5]

All other candidates in double-digits: Buttigieg is at 7 percent, Warren is at 6 percent, Klobuchar is at 4 percent and Gabbard is at 1 percent

snip//

In the poll last September, Biden was at 37 percent, 20 points ahead of Warren, the second-place candidate.

Mike Bloomberg was not included in the poll because he is not on the ballot in the state.

The poll, which entered the field one day before the New Hampshire primary and concluded on Wednesday, shows a plurality of black voters still supporting Biden.

Among black voters, 31 percent support the former vice president, to 18 percent for Steyer and 17 percent for Sanders.


A definite drop, but still in the lead. Among Blacks Biden still maintains a double digit lead (+13).

Biden is trailing Sanders by less than you might think: new California poll

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/02/biden-is-trailing-sanders-by-less-than-you-might-think-new-california-poll/

Snip//

While recent surveys have consistently found Bernie Sanders winning in the Golden State, his lead may not be as big as some might think.A new poll released by Monmouth University on Thursday found 24% of likely California Democratic primary voters supporting Sanders, compared to 17% for former Vice President Joe Biden. The 7-point gap is far narrower than the 18-point lead the Public Policy Institute of California recorded Sanders having on Tuesday.


I think we are going to see an uptick in Biden's support. Bernie's lead is soft IMHO.

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