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UncleNoel

Profile Information

Member since: Mon Jul 11, 2005, 11:05 AM
Number of posts: 858

About Me

White, male, expatriate living in the mountains of central Taiwan, Oregon permanent address, 34 years of age. Born in St. Louis. Army brat lived all over. Veteran of the Korean War (sieved in Libya and Austin, Texas). Ph.D. in anthropology and linguistics, Indiana University. Career in linguistics and ESL at numerous US and foreign institutions. Spent most of my career as a director of English as a Second Language programs. Taught at National Chi Nan Unversity, Puli, Taiwan over the years 1995-2016. Retired as an orchard keeper with my life partner Judy Wu of the Bunun Austronesian tribe in our mountain hideaway cabin, High Mountain Orchards.

Journal Archives

The Money Chase as of 2/21. UPDATED

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/president/democratic-primary/candidates/fundraising-and-campaign-finance-tracker/
Given in millions of course.
Bloomberg (55.1) , Steyer (17.9), Sanders(16.8), Biden (7.1), Buttigieg (6.6), Klobuchar (2.9), Warren (2.3)

Totals from official FEC reports Published 2/20/2020 | Updated 02/21/2020 14:08 PM )

There are reports of large sums garnered from the debate.Still, Buttigieg is reported trying to raise 13 million before super Tuesday. Reports of Biden being pinched are exaggerated it seems, but still all these will need big bucks to run strong in SC and Super Tuesday.

Democrat Warren, worried campaign will run out of cash, taps $3 million loan

By Grant Smith and Ginger Gibson
ReutersFebruary 21, 2020, 1:37 PM GMT+8
https://us.yahoo.com/news/democrat-warren-worried-campaign-run-053748789.html

I've been giving 10 bucks here and there all month to Joe. Cupboard is bare now. Hope others can make up the gap. Hope Warren can keep on a going now that she has revitalized her campaign. Pete does not seem to have the golden touch now that he had for the first two states.

Nevada Polling Aggregation: Sanders 27.2, Biden 16.2, Warren 13.1, Buttigieg 11.6,

Steyer 10.2, Klobuchar 8.5

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#Nevada_caucus



Last three polls:



Okay, let's get started. Here are the most recent aggregate polls for SC and NV

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#South_Carolina_primary
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#Nevada_caucus

Joe has a strong lead in SC and Joe and Bernie are head to head in Nevada.

We have to see how the upcoming polls play out after Iowa and NH results for Pete, Amy and Liz.

1. South Carolina. Joe a good deal ahead.



2. Nevada. Joe and Bernie back and forth, but polls are old. Bernie might get a bounce here.

RCP NH Averages 2/9 Sanders 26.2, Buttigieg 20.8, Biden 12.4, Warren 12.2, Klobuchar 8.8

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html

Sanders pretty solidlyin the lead with Buttigieg trailing by over 5%; Biden and Warren in tight race for third with Biden ticking up; Klobuchar's well-deserved bounce seems to have waned.

Wikipedia Poll Agregation 2/6 : Biden 26.1 (26.7) , Sanders 21.2 (19.5), Warren 14.2 (16.7)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#November_2019

The parentheses indicate the poll aggregation numbers on 1/15-17. So, Joe remains steady (-0.6) Bernie gained almost 2 (+1.7), apparently at the expense of Warren (-2.4) and a tick from Joe. All others, including Buttigieg remain in single digits except, ugh, Bloomberg 10.5..

Iowa and NH are not the big picture. Hopeful for a good showing in NH, but it is the "beyond" that will tell the tale up to Super Tuesday.

All the tails of financial woes, a failing campaign. and all the rest are no more true now than they were then.


I'm upbeat about Biden! Making my third Feb donation...

We are about to leave the unrepresentative states and roar into the real world of the diversified Democratic Party--Joe's world where he is the uniter who will bring together the forces that will thump Trump on his rump.

McConnell challenger McGrath endorses Biden

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/480838-mcconnell-challenger-mcgrath-endorses-biden
By Julia Manchester - 01/31/20 08:00 AM EST

snip//


McConnell challenger McGrath endorses Biden
© Getty

Amy McGrath, a 2020 Democratic challenger to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's (R-Ky.) seat, on Friday endorsed former Vice President Joe Biden's presidential bid.

“Honor and integrity are at the heart of everything Marines do. It’s why I believe so strongly that Joe Biden is the president who can return honor and integrity to the Oval Office," McGrath said in a statement released by Biden's campaign.

"Joe is the Democrat who can bring our country together, restore our reputation abroad, and bring real change to a nation torn apart by partisanship. We need that now more than ever," she continued.

McGrath, a Marine veteran who came close to flipping a Republican-held House seat in 2018, officially filed to run for Senate late last year.

WikipediA Poll Agregation as of 1/15 & 1/17: Biden 26.7, Sanders 19.5, Warren 16.7,

Buttigieg 7.2, Bloomberg 6.2. All others less than 5%. [Biden +7.2]

Aggregate of poll averages from 570 to Win, Real Clear Politics, the Economist, and FiveThirtyEight.
Bloomberg moving up on Pete, Yang and Amy low.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#November_2019

Biden's ship stayed on course. Some headlines and snips on debate Winners and Losers.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/democratic-debate-sanders-warren-flap-060024657.html

In Democratic debate, Sanders-Warren flap makes a winner out of Biden.
Bottom line: Biden's ship stayed on course.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/15/2020-democratic-debate-winners-losers-099136

Snips//

Who had the best night? Who had the worst?
Barrón-López: Biden emerged without taking major damage, again, and by default that makes him one of the winners — though Sanders had some notable exchanges with Biden, drawing contrasts on foreign policy. Buttigieg didn’t have any memorable moments, and that could hurt him as he’s slipped in the polls in Iowa. A strong showing in the first two states is critical for Buttigieg, who has failed to gain traction with black and brown voters.
Otterbein: That question would best be answered by voters! Before the debate, Warren and Sanders’ teams had telegraphed that they wanted to de-escalate — and they achieved that during the debate. As the Sanders campaign beat reporter, I’d say his team will likely feel that he effectively contrasted his record versus Biden’s on the Iraq War, NAFTA, etc. — and he did so at the beginning of the debate, when more viewers typically tune into these things. But he didn't get the Social Security debate he wanted with Biden — and he needs to do better among older voters, among whom he is running far behind Biden in polls.
Siders: Joe Biden won the night, as a beneficiary of circumstance. The debate opened on foreign policy, an area in which he has a deep well of experience, and Biden exploited it. Even better for Biden? The fight moderators really wanted, between Sanders and Warren — had nothing to do with Biden. The frontrunner left the debate unbruised.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/joe-bidens-still-winning-and-no-one-laid-a-glove-on-him?ref=wrap

Joe Biden’s Still Winning, and No One Laid a Glove on Him
JOEMENTUM



Nate Silver: If Joe Biden wins Iowa, 'he's off to the races' [Video]

Looking good, Joe!

https://www.yahoo.com/news/dems-iowa-loss-face-uphill-154714122.html



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