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UncleNoel

Profile Information

Member since: Mon Jul 11, 2005, 11:05 AM
Number of posts: 858

About Me

White, male, expatriate living in the mountains of central Taiwan, Oregon permanent address, 34 years of age. Born in St. Louis. Army brat lived all over. Veteran of the Korean War (sieved in Libya and Austin, Texas). Ph.D. in anthropology and linguistics, Indiana University. Career in linguistics and ESL at numerous US and foreign institutions. Spent most of my career as a director of English as a Second Language programs. Taught at National Chi Nan Unversity, Puli, Taiwan over the years 1995-2016. Retired as an orchard keeper with my life partner Judy Wu of the Bunun Austronesian tribe in our mountain hideaway cabin, High Mountain Orchards.

Journal Archives

UPDATE: Corps d'Elite Day-by-Day Presidential Tracking Poll-October: Biden 28, Warren 22, Sanders 17

New YouGov Poll out. The good news is that Biden is up three though this does not show in the tracking averages. Always friendly to Warren, she is up a tab, but the bad news is that Sanders took a dip. Scroll down for previous chart.


Previous compilation:


Data Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/

Commentary:
Biden is rising, Warren flattening, and Sanders coming up on Warren.

Disclaimer:
All averages are mine alone. 538 does not provide averages. I am going cross-eyed reading polls and calculating. All errors are mine alone and any corrections, additions, or comments on the method will be appreciated.numbers

This is a work in progress. A & B rated polls(538) are tracked with day-by-day averages of polls available for each day with an aggregate average as given above. This provides a daily tracking so that trends can be seen rather than simply lumping all polls together with arbitrary listing of the number of polls covered. I am going from the October Debate until the November debate. However, aggregate averages can be made at any point.

Noel

I opened up the thread and saw three hit pieces n Biden

He must be doing well.

NEW: A & B-rated October Poll Averages (Top Tier): Biden 28, Warren 22, Sanders 16 (Biden +6)

I have adopted crazytown’s(Warren) suggestion to do only A and B rated (538) polls. Others have suggested eliminating HarrisX. Sinxce thia ia C+ rated poll, it will no longer be considered (along with Change Research, Zogby Analytics, USC Dornsife/LA Times, McLaughlin & Associates, and the D- Survey Donkey. We will also not consider polls that are not rated, such as Civiqs, unless there are some overwhelming factors to consider.

So Biden ranges roughly 25-30, Warren 20-25, and Sanders 15-20

Average 9/26-22: Biden 27.7, Warren 22.0, Sanders 16.4 (Biden +5.7)
NOTE: Similar RCP averages: Biden27.2, Warren21.8, Sanders17.3

YouGov B (LV) 10/20-22: Biden 24(-1), Warren 21(-7), Sanders 15(+2) [Biden +3]
Quinnipiac A- (LV) 10/17-21: Biden 21(-6), Warren 28(-2), Sanders 15(+2) [Warren +7]
CNN/SSRS A- (RV) 10/17-20: Biden 34(+10), Warren 19(+1), Sanders 16(+1) [Biden +15]
Emerson B+ (LV) 10/18-21: Biden 27(+2), Warren 21(+2), Sanders 25(+2) [Biden]
Morning Consult B- (LV) 10/16-20: Biden 30(-2), Warren 21(0), Sanders 18(-3) [Biden +9]
Ipsos B+ (RV) 10/17-18: Biden 24(+3), Warren 17(+2), Sanders 15(0) [Biden +7]
SUSA A (LV) 10/15-16: Biden 32(-1), Warren 22(+3), Sanders 17(0) [Biden +10]
FOX News A (LV) 10/6-8: Biden 32(+3), Warren 22(+6), Sanders 17(-1) [Biden +10]
IBD/TIJPP A- (RV) 9/26-10/3 Biden 26(-2), Warren 27(+3), Sanders 10(-2) [Watren +1]


All pols reach into or are solely in October. FOX and IBD/TIPP are before the October debate. Eliminat them does not change the averages by much since they balance out.
() indicates the +/- from previous poll of any pollster. Some polls are frequent, some occasional. The latter may go back as far as August or September, but at least we get some feeling for the tracking of the polls.
Only the latest of any one poll is given.

Curiously, FOX News and SUSA had the same figures in early October if I am not mistaken.

Source:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/

Disclaimer: 538 does not give averages. I have added them. Please let me know if I have inadvertently made any errors.




Morning Joe: Biden, Warren leading 2020 field in separate polling - Oct. 24, 2019

Link:
https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/biden-warren-leading-2020-field-in-separate-polling-71956037666

snip//

Former VP Joe Biden is maintaining his lead among 2020 Democrats in new polling, and could Trump's attacks on him be helping his numbers? Also, a new Quinnipiac Poll shows Sen. Warren in the lead.

At least they got it right about Biden, but they love the Quinnipiac Poll!

UPDATE: All Post October Debate Poll Averages: Biden 27.2, Warren 20.4, Sanders 18.8 (Biden +6.8)

Lest we forget: Biden is the clear frontrunner, Bernie rebounds (Warren surge leveling off?)

Candidates: Biden Warren Sanders
Average (rounded) 10/16-22: 27.2 20.4 18.8 (Biden +6.8)
McLaughlin & Associates C- (LV) 10/17-22: 28, 16, 18 (Biden +10 Over Sanders)
Quinnipiac A- (LV) 10/17-21: 21 28 [15 (Warren +7)
CNN/SSRS A- (RV) 10/17-20: 34 19 16 (Biden +15)
YouGov B (LV) 10/20-22: 24 21 15 ( Biden +3)
The Hill C+ (RV) 10/21-22: 27 19 14 (Biden +8)
Emerson B+ (LV) 10/18-21: 27 21 25 (Biden +2 over Sanders)
Morning Consult B- (LV) 10/16-20: 30 21 18 (Biden +9)
Ipsos B+ (RV) 10/17-18: 24 17 15 (Biden +7)
SUSA A (LV) 10/15-16: 32 22 17 (Biden +10)


Links:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#polls

New Poll (C-): Biden double digit lead, Rebounding Sanders bests Warren 18 to 16

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

Oct 17-22, 2019
McLaughlin & Associates C- 468 LV

Biden 28% [Biden +10]
Sanders 18%
Warren 16%
Harris 6%
Yang 6%
All others, including Buttigieg under 5%

For what it is worth.

Joe Biden, in Scranton, Says Trump Owes Current Economy to Obama Years

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/23/us/politics/joe-biden-scranton-speech.html

snips//

In a speech that was billed as an outline of Mr. Biden’s economic policy, the former vice president attacked President Trump’s biggest argument for re-election. Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. accused President Trump of “squandering” the economy he inherited from the Obama administration, and promised to reverse Mr. Trump’s tax cuts.

SCRANTON, Pa. — Joseph R. Biden Jr. returned to his native city on Wednesday seeking to undermine President Trump’s strongest argument to voters for re-election: the resilient economy. He accused Mr. Trump of inheriting an economic upturn, but “just like everything else he inherited, he’s in the midst of squandering it.”

Mr. Biden’s speech was billed as an economic policy address, yet it was light on new plans; he repeated many ideas he has previously advanced. Instead, he made an emotional appeal rooted in his middle-class biography to restore the “values” of an American compact, in which hard work allowed average families to afford a home, higher education and health care.

“There used to be a basic bargain in America: If you contribute to the well-being of the outfit you work with, you got to share in the benefits,” Mr. Biden said, speaking to a few hundred in a downtown auditorium. “That bargain’s been broken.”

Although corporate profits are up, Mr. Biden said, middle-class wages are stagnant and families are buckling under the burden of health bills and college. He promised to undo Republican tax cuts on corporations and the wealthy.

***

Mr. Biden hit many of the same themes later in a lengthy speech he gave in West Point, Iowa, where he again talked about his family story and cast Mr. Trump as impervious to the needs of the middle class. He also took several veiled swipes at Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has said she will soon detail her plans to pay for “Medicare for all.”

Mr. Biden supports building on the Affordable Care Act and adding a public option, but has suggested Medicare for all is unrealistic and too expensive.

“My competitors are really well-meaning people,” he said, but added: “None of them told you how Medicare for all is going to be paid for.”
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After the event, Mr. Biden, in response to a question from a reporter, again expressed regret for his 1998 use of the term “partisan lynching” in a discussion about impeachment proceedings against President Bill Clinton. Mr. Biden had also tweeted an apology on Tuesday for using the term.

“I was wrong to have said it and I apologize for having said it,” Mr. Biden said on Wednesday.

But he also criticized Mr. Trump for using the term “lynching,” with its legacy of racist murders of African-Americans, to describe the impeachment inquiry he currently faces. Mr. Trump, he argued, was using the term “as a dog whistle.”

“When has he ever taken, when has he ever said a negative thing about a white supremacist?” Mr. Biden said of the president. “Have you heard him say anything? I haven’t.”

Mr. Biden’s appearance in Scranton came the same day that a new CNN national poll showed him with a commanding lead in the Democratic primary, with the support of 34 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning registered voters, followed by Ms. Warren at 19 percent and Senator Bernie Sanders at 16 percent. It is Mr. Biden’s widest lead in the CNN survey since shortly after he announced his bid for president.

But there is no national primary, of course, and Mr. Biden’s advantage in the early-primary states Iowa and New Hampshire has ebbed or evaporated. The CNN survey is a sign that nationally he has retained strong support despite facing weeks of unproved attacks by Mr. Trump on him and his son Hunter over their activities in Ukraine, an issue driving the Democrats’ impeachment inquiry.

Mr. Biden’s economic prescriptions, less sweeping than those of other leading Democrats seeking the nomination, include a $15 federal minimum wage, tripling funding for schools with at-risk students, free community college and a plan for students to pay down their college debt by committing to community service.

Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate is only 3.9 percent, though it is 5.2 percent in Lackawanna County, where Scranton is. But a manufacturing downturn may be underway statewide, with 8,100 jobs lost this year so far, an issue that could cut into the president’s 2016 promises to restore industry in the Rust Belt.

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While Mr. Biden visited Scranton, in northeast Pennsylvania, Mr. Trump was scheduled to be in Pittsburgh, in the western part of the state, on Wednesday afternoon, to address natural gas drillers. The president’s visit comes close to the first anniversary of the Tree of Life Synagogue shooting in that city, when a gunman killed 11 worshipers.

Though Democrats made strong gains in the 2018 midterms in Pennsylvania, it is very much up in the air whether they will carry the state next year, and who would be their most formidable opponent to the president. Mr. Trump has held rallies both before and after his election at an arena in nearby Wilkes-Barre that drew some 10,000 people.

Although Hillary Clinton narrowly carried Lackawanna County, Mr. Trump cut deeply into the Democratic margin of more than 26,000 votes that Barack Obama piled up here in 2012.

Democrats have been arguing ever since about how to recapture those voters, mostly white and working class, and how much to focus on them. Mr. Biden, who is regarded warmly by many Pennsylvanians thanks to his history here, spent many minutes recounting family stories he has told regularly: his father moving alone to Delaware for a job but promising to send for the family when he could afford to; his father feeling ashamed when a bank turned him down for a loan to pay for his son’s college. His father telling young “Joey” that “the measure of success is not whether you get knocked down, it’s how quickly you get up.”

The split-screen moment in Pennsylvania comes after weeks of clashes between the Trump and Biden camps. In the last month, Mr. Biden has faced concerns from some Democrats over whether he was responding quickly and aggressively enough to Mr. Trump’s attacks. His campaign has settled on a strategy of frequently criticizing Mr. Trump and seeking to discredit his messages, while also focusing on policy matters — health care in particular.



All Post-debate#3 Poll Averages: Biden 27, Warren 21, Sanders 17, Buttigieg 7, Harris 5 (Biden +6)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#polls

All polls are listed from RCP and 538 except that if more than one poll occurred more than once, only the most recent one was chosen and the older one eliminated. Candidates who only had less than 5% were not listed below (sorry, go to the link to find there percentages). In some cases the figures from the two sources disagreed in which case I used those from 538.

Biden 27, Warren 21, Sanders 17, Buttigieg 7, Harris 5 (Biden +6)

Candidates Biden Warren Sanders Buttigieg Harris
RCP Average (rounded) 10/16-22: 27 21 17 7 5 Biden +6
Quinnipiac A- (LV) 10/17-21: 21 28 15 10 5 Warren +7
CNN/SSRS A- (RV) 10/17-20: 34 19 16 6 6 Biden +15
YouGov B (LV) 10/20-22: 24 21 15 8 5 Biden +3
The Hill C+ (RV) 10/21-22: 27 19 14 6 5 Biden +8
Emerson B+ (LV) 10/18-21: 27 21 25 6 5 Biden +2
Morning Consult B- (LV) 10/16-20: 30 21 18 6 6 Biden +9
Ipsos B+ (RV) 10/17-18: 24 17 15 5 4 Biden +7
SUSA A (LV) 10/15-16: 32 22 17 5 7 Biden +10

RCP is strange. One time they have 7 polls and then 3-5. Time frame doesn't seem to be the differences. Sometimes their figures differ from 538 (LV vs. RV? and sometimes entry error?). I chose the 538 figures and did not check the original sources.

CNN poll: Biden wins the "enthusiasm" factor! A record level of enthusiasm heading into 2020

So much for that meme!

1 hr 54 min ago
TL;DR: Biden leads Democrats and all top Democrats lead Trump
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/cnn-poll-10-23-2019/index.html

snip//

A record level of enthusiasm heading into 2020

Democratic elites may not like their choices, but voters do.

One of the most interesting nuggets from our poll is that 43% of potential Democratic voters would be enthusiastic if Biden were the nominee. Warren, at 41%, and Sanders, at 39%, post similar percentages.

I was interested if these were lower than normal, given that there are reports that party actors are unhappy with how the primary is playing out. They're hoping for someone new to jump in the race.

Well, the percentages for the leading Democrats this year look as good, if not slightly better, than the last two Democratic nomination fights at this point. Back in early November 2007, 30% said they’d feel enthusiastic if Barack Obama was the Democratic nominee. For Clinton, it was 39%. John Edwards rang in with a mere 18% on this score.

Jump ahead to 2015 and you see something similar. In September 2015, 43% said they would be enthusiastic if Clinton were the nominee. It was 37% for Biden and 31% for Sanders.

The MSM is jushing a new narrative: Dems looking for someone else

Clinton and Bloomberg being teased, pushing the Biden cash crunch as an excuse to make things exciting.

We need to contribute all we can to Joe and hope Clinton is not tempted to hope into the race. Same for Bloomberg.

We need Joe and his recent surge in the polls is exhilarating.
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