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UncleNoel

Profile Information

Member since: Mon Jul 11, 2005, 11:05 AM
Number of posts: 858

About Me

White, male, expatriate living in the mountains of central Taiwan, Oregon permanent address, 34 years of age. Born in St. Louis. Army brat lived all over. Veteran of the Korean War (sieved in Libya and Austin, Texas). Ph.D. in anthropology and linguistics, Indiana University. Career in linguistics and ESL at numerous US and foreign institutions. Spent most of my career as a director of English as a Second Language programs. Taught at National Chi Nan Unversity, Puli, Taiwan over the years 1995-2016. Retired as an orchard keeper with my life partner Judy Wu of the Bunun Austronesian tribe in our mountain hideaway cabin, High Mountain Orchards.

Journal Archives

Biden on bus tour bites Jill's finger! Not a gafffe, but a laugh!

Bo Erickson CBS

@BoKnowsNews

.@JoeBiden's "No Malarkey!" Iowa bus tour starts in Council Bluffs with laughs: An excited @DrBiden gestures and almost hits Joe in the head...and then he bit her finger:
https://twitter.com/BoKnowsNews/status/1200901715618222082
6:17 AM - Dec 1, 2019

SurveyUSA's summary of the race post-November debate. It pretty well sums it up to now...

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #25016
Data Collected: 11/20/2019 - 11/21/2019
Release Date: 11/26/2019

Neither Burisma Nor Bloopers Nor Unexpected Grand-Baby Can Take Bloom off Biden Rose for Democrats Desperate to Defeat Donald[Trump;

While Warren & Sanders Do-Si-Do for 2nd Place Nationally, Buttigieg Leaps into 4th, Doubling His Support In a Month; Then Came Bloomberg ...

10 weeks to the Iowa Caucuses, likely Democratic primary voters nationwide can't quit Joe Biden, according to SurveyUSA's newest tracking poll, conducted immediately after the 11/20/19 Democratic Candidate Debate in Atlanta. Though Biden's children and now suddenly a grandchild are in the news for all the wrong reasons, though Biden continues to demonstrate to all who pay attention that he struggles to express himself, though he inadvertently steps on the toes of his core constituents, and though Republicans see him as a punching bag, Biden's poll numbers are inert.

In 4 consecutive SurveyUSA tracking polls, Biden has never polled higher than 33%, never polled lower than 32%. Though some see the former Vice President's pants on fire, likely Democratic Primary voters stick with the devil they know. Biden has led in every SurveyUSA nationwide poll, never by less than 10 points, today by 15 points.

Given the chance to choose any of the Democrats still in the race, but before Michael Bloomberg is added to the mix, likely primary voters today appear to have second thoughts about Elizabeth Warren, who drops 6 points from October to November and now polls at 16%, one statistically-insignificant point behind Bernie Sanders, who today, for the 3rd consecutive month, polls at 17%.

Pete Buttigieg had been at 5% in both September and October, but today, as Americans set their Thanksgiving tables, Buttigieg leaps to 12% nationwide, materially ahead of the rest of the pack, 4 points behind Warren and 7 points ahead of Kamala Harris who, despite a strong performance in Atlanta, today finishes 5th.

Combined, Harris and Cory Booker, the other black Democrat on the debate stage, have the support of 12% of African American Democratic primary voters. By contrast, Biden is today backed by 53% of African American Democratic primary voters. Biden was backed by 35% of black Democrats in August, 42% of black Democrats in September, and now 53% of black Democrats in November. 1% of black voters back Buttigieg.

Among white middle-class Democrats, Buttigieg's support doubles month-on month, vaulting Mayor Pete past Warren and past Sanders and landing in Biden's rear-view mirror.


The Daily Beast posted a :Malarkey: piece on Biden's Iowa bust tour!

Iowa Democrats Brace for Biden on the Bus
ROAD TO VICTORY?
Hanna Trudo
Published Nov. 27, 2019 4:50AM ET
https://www.thedailybeast.com/iowa-democrats-brace-for-biden-on-the-bus?ref=wrap

Sample of irresponsible journalisg:

At a time when his numbers are declining and momentum is mounting around rival campaigns, the former vice president is about to open himself up to arguably the highest level of scrutiny so far: an extended bus tour in Iowa meant to turn his downward spiral in the other direction.


This is a bunch of Malarkey. Biden is not declining in the polls nor is he spiraling downward. And other than the undeniable Buttigieg boost, Warren is dropping. Just more of the Biden is sliden malarkey.

Ipsos poll (11/21-22) listed by 538/Economist: Biden 21, Sanders 17, Warren 11, Buttigieg 7

This Nov 21-22 poll does not show up in RCP, Wikipedia, 270towin, etc., but only in 538 and the Economist.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/
https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

It repeats the really low 11% for Warren as in their earlier November poll. It is an ADULT Poll (aka GP 'General Population') but rated B- by 538.

I wonder why it doesn't show up on any other site, not even the list of all polls on Election Projection. Hmmm! Anyway, here it is FWIW.

Biden 21,
Sanders 17,
Warren 11,
Buttigieg 7

"Biden is bacck on top of the pack...3-way race for 2nd."

That's the YAHOO title for a USA Today article that reads:
Pete Buttigieg surges to second, Joe Biden regains national lead in new poll
Savannah Behrmann, USA TODAY
USA TODAYēNovember 27, 2019
https://news.yahoo.com/joe-biden-regains-national-lead-010405443.html

It's a lousy poll IMHO. The figures have already been posted here, but it is an interesting take by the MSM.

Biden has been in the lead all along except for that one moment last month in the same poll.

WASHINGTON Ė Former Vice President Joe Biden has rebounded to take the lead of the crowded field of Democratic contenders in a new national Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday.

The new numbers come just one month after an October 24 poll put Biden 7-points behind Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 21%.

The November poll has Biden now leading the pack at 24%, with South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg receiving 16%, up 6 points from October. Warren polled at 14%, dropping from 28% in October, and Sen. Bernie Sanders came in at 13%.

Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said in the press release, "Biden is back on top of the pack but now there is a 3-way race for second. Buttigieg has broken into the top tier, apparently at the expense of Warren, who has taken a dive after being hammered for being too far left on health care and other issues."

Notably, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who recently announced he was entering the 2020 primary after much speculation, gained 3% in the Quinnipiac University poll, tying with Senators Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar, who have been in the race for months.

Businessman Andrew Yang, Sen. Cory Booker, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro, and Sen. Michael Bennet received 2% each. 11% of likely Democratic voters were undecided, and no other candidate topped 1%.

Biden again dominated on electability with 46% viewing him as the candidate who has the best chance against President Donald Trump. This was also the most important quality for a candidate to have, according to 35% of voters.

Warren and Sanders' drop in this poll coincides with their "Medicare for All" idea receiving only a 36% positive review from voters surveyed, while 52% say it is a bad idea.

MSNBC highlights the disconnect between the National polls fand the early states' polls

MSNBC's Steve Kornacki breaks down the numbers, highlighting the major differences between the national polls and the polling in early states.
11th Hour
Kornacki: We haven't seen this kind of disconnect in polls in decades."

This was aired Nov. 21st, but in the poll hiatus after the pre-debate polls and the upcoming swatch of post-debate polls, it is still relevant.

https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/kornaki-we-haven-t-seen-this-kind-of-disconnect-in-polls-in-decades-73788485796
Here are the poll screenshots for those who don't wish to go to the link.







It is of interest that Biden is 2nd in Iowa and NH and first elsewhere. Further, in Iowwa the two moderates are on top and the left candidates are on the bottom. Try combining Pete and Joe one one hand and Warren and Sanders on the other.

RCP POLL AVERAGES: Biden 29.8, Sanders 19.3, Warren 18.5 [Biden +10.5]. Also Wikipedia's Aggregate

Biden close to breaking into the 30+ lane again. Sanders nudging Warren out of the 20-25 lane and Warren swerving over into the 15-20 lane.

Based on the polls just before the November debate. Now let's see how it plays out.



Wikipedia includes earlier data in its aggregate of averages for a bit of a different picture.

UncleNoel's November Pre-Debate Polls Roundup: Biden 29.3, Sanders 20.3, Warren 18.6 [Biden +9]

Time to windup the pre-debate polls for November and get ready for the next batch of post-debate polls. The data show Bidenwell ahead, Sanders moving back into second place, but Warren not in free fall. Data from 538, RCP, and Wikipedia's aggregate totals.
They are all surely bouncing around, but while generally Biden is in his plus 25 lane, but Warren and Sanders are swerving back andbforth between he 20-25 land and the 15-20 lane.


POLITICUSUSA'S WINNERS AND LOSSERS - a bit of a different take than what I am reading in the thread

Posted on Wed, Nov 20th, 2019 by Jason Easley
https://www.politicususa.com/2019/11/20/winners-losers-democratic-debate-2.html

Here Are The Winners And Losers From The MSNBC Democratic Debate

Ten Democrats debated in Georgia on MSNBC, and here are the candidates who shined and some who stumbled at the debate.
Winners and Losers

Winners:
1). Amy Klobuchar Ė Klobuchar has continued to get better and better with each debate. She makes an interesting argument about being able to win in the Midwest. Klobuchar is poised to show a bit better in Iowa than in the national polls. She has become an interesting candidate in the center lane, who is showing well in the debates, but she will need a boost in Iowa to have a shot at the nomination.
2). Kamala Harris- Sen. Harris stopped going for the big homerun debate moments. She instead played into her strengths on criminal justice reform, her work as a prosecutor, and she really shined when she took on Tulsi Gabbard for her right-wing ties.
3). Pete Buttigieg Ė Mayor Pete had a really good night. Buttigieg took on Donald Trump for stealing from vets. He made strong policy points, and overall looked much more comfortable outside of the chaos that was the jammed 12 candidate event at the previous debate. The momentum in Iowa looks real for Buttigieg, but he canít get any support from minority voters. Unless Buttigieg wants to be an Iowa wonder, he needs to expand his base of support to reach the majority of Democratic primary voters.
4). Elizabeth Warren Ė Sen. Warren got lots of time to talk and did nothing to hurt her standing with her supporters. If anything Warren might have become more appealing to the left lane of the Democratic primary. Warren leaves this debate in the same strong position that she came in with.
5).Joe Biden- Former vice president Biden reaffirmed his brand. He was strong on foreign policy. His moderate healthcare position of expanding Obamacare and his message that he is the person who can get things done and get more Democrats elected to the House and Senate is going to appeal to those voters who are focused on winning. Biden had what have become his usual Biden verbal stumbles, but they havenít cost him with his supporters before, and they probably wonít now. The Democratic frontrunners stayed out of each otherís way, which means that like Warren, it was a good night for Biden.
6). Bernie Sanders Ė Sen. Sanders is another frontrunner who saw no harm come to his standing in the field. Sen. Sanders still has the same problem. He is getting squeezed from Warren on the left, and Biden in the middle. Sen. Sanders has stopped relying on the same talking points as the 2016 election and looked healthier than he has in years. Sanders probably didnít catch up to Warren and Biden, but he is still in the top three.
Losers:
1). Tulsi Gabbard Ė Gabbard got her head handed to her by Kamala Harris, and when a candidateís biggest moment of the debate is a bad one, it was not a good night. The common theme with all of the candidates on this half of the list is that they are low in the polls and didnít get a breakthrough moment.
2).<="" strong=""> Yang is popular on the campaign trail, but his most memorable moment was with Tom Steyer. Yang didnít get much airtime, and his quirky candidacy isnít moving him up in the polls or getting much-staying power in the primary. He did have a good moment when he talked about designating white supremacists as domestic terrorists. Yang could have a real future in politics, but this race isnít it.
3). Cory Booker- Sen. Booker is a candidate that just canít catch fire. Booker is a very good candidate, but he canít seem to get any traction. It continues to feel like Sen. Booker missed his window and should have run in 2016.
4).Tom Steyer Ė Tom Steyer is defined as a candidate. Steyer is another interesting candidate, but it is unclear what he stands for. Steyer talked about term limits and allowing the American people to directly vote on laws, but one wonders that after the election of Trump if America has the stomach for a wealthy inexperienced candidate assuming the presidency.
Overall, this was one of the best and easiest to watch Democratic debates. The chaos was gone and the candidates got to talk. There was very little conflict among the candidates, and the first-ever all-female moderation panel was fantastic. The questions were good. They kept the debate moving, and it would be great to see Maddow, Mitchell, Welker, and Parker do many more debates in the future.

Lynn Rosenthal Former White House Advisor on Violence Against Women: I know Joe!

I want to share this email from the Biden Campaign. " This is a series of stories from the Americans who know Joe Biden -- from his family, to his closest friends and colleagues, to the everyday Americans whose lives he's touched. These are their words."


Lynn Rosenthal:

Ten years ago, Joe Biden appointed me as the first ever White House Advisor on Violence Against Women.

This sent an important signal. But a signal alone would not bring about meaningful change. Change requires personal engagement, willingness to learn, and a real sense of urgency to get something done.

Over the course of 5 years, I would have the opportunity to witness countless moments where Joe Biden demonstrated compassion and determination in pursuit of meaningful change for survivors of domestic violence.

I want to share one of those stories with you.

Late one evening, I was in my office in the Executive Office Building, getting ready to leave for the night when the Vice President called over from the West Wing. Heíd been trying to reach the mother of a victim whose story heíd followed closely. He wanted simply to check inĖĖto see how she was doing on what was certain to be an incredibly difficult day for their family, a year after her daughter was killed.

ďLynn, Iíve been calling and calling, and I still havenít been able to get a hold of her. Iím just going to keep trying until I can get her on the phone.Ē Thatís exactly what he did. And he didnít give up until he got through.

An agent of meaningful change. Thatís who Joe Biden is. His compassion for those affected by domestic and sexual violence was constant.

The law enforcement officer who had spent his career helping children and whoĖĖwhile dying of cancerĖĖneeded to talk about his own story as a child victim. The woman whose sister was murdered by her husband during a child custody exchange. Rape victims whose forensic evidence kits sat on shelves in crime labs and law enforcement storage, untested. Countless survivors on rope lines and college campuses who poured out their stories, knowing he would understand. And the all-too-many parents he gathered every year at the Naval Observatory to remember the daughters they had lost and talk about how to end this violence for good.

Joe Biden never flinched from peopleís pain. He was never too busy, or in too much of a rush, to simply sit and listen.

From there, heíd go to Congress. To community leaders. To policymakers. Heíd get people to the table to work together, and get survivors the help and support they needed.

And it made a difference. From playing an instrumental role in the creation of the first National Domestic Violence Hotline, to strengthening Title IX, to protecting students from sexual discrimination and sexual violence, to launching a public campaign to help prevent campus sexual assault, Joe Biden made concrete changes in the lives of survivors and their families.

Joe Biden is not new to this work. He has done it with all his heart since authoring the Violence Against Women Act. And heís committed to further strengthening it to meet the needs of survivors and communities today, to prevent violence from happening in the first place.

I share these stories with you, because I know itís easy to get caught up in the day-to-day news cycle, or to find yourself caught up in a back-and-forth on social media with someone who has a different opinion than you do. Itís not easy to come by pure moments where a given leaderís character shines through, unobstructed by bias or partisan spin.

And thatís why itís on the people who know those leaders best to tell those stories.

I know Joe Biden.

He is a man of character. Of integrity. Of compassion. And I believe that he is the leader we need, at one of the most divided moments in our countryís history.

Letís elect a president with heart. Letís elect Joe Biden.

Thank you for listening.

-Lynn
Lynn Rosenthal
Former White House Advisor on Violence Against Women
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