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UncleNoel

Profile Information

Member since: Mon Jul 11, 2005, 11:05 AM
Number of posts: 858

About Me

White, male, expatriate living in the mountains of central Taiwan, Oregon permanent address, 34 years of age. Born in St. Louis. Army brat lived all over. Veteran of the Korean War (sieved in Libya and Austin, Texas). Ph.D. in anthropology and linguistics, Indiana University. Career in linguistics and ESL at numerous US and foreign institutions. Spent most of my career as a director of English as a Second Language programs. Taught at National Chi Nan Unversity, Puli, Taiwan over the years 1995-2016. Retired as an orchard keeper with my life partner Judy Wu of the Bunun Austronesian tribe in our mountain hideaway cabin, High Mountain Orchards.

Journal Archives

Microsoft News Poll: 55% favor Trump Removal, 40% oppose his removal

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/daily-presidential-tracking-poll/ar-AADKLI1

Margin of Error for Removal of Trump: 52-58
Margin of Error for Not Removing Trump: 37-43

Bad news for Trump all around.



Who would you vote for:
Democratic Party Nominee: 49%
Trump: 40%

Country moving in right/wrong Direction:
Wrong Direction: 58%
Right Direction: 32%

Should this be posted on General Discussion? I'm so settled into this thread and it does impinge on the General Election and by implication on the primary. Ugh!





REMINDER:I like 270towin's poll selection and Aggregate Averages

Biden is pretty consistently breaking the 30s barrier and increasing his lead in polls and endorsements.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-democratic-nomination/


For comparison here is Wikipedia's Aggregate of Averages.



Sanders and Warren remain steady in the mid-/late teens, Buttigieg is not breaking the double digit mark anymore. He has Liz above and Amy below crimping his lead and this might begin to show up even in Iowa and NH. Can't underestimate Sanders' strength, but Biden is without doubt leading gthe pack as he has consistently done but he is still incdreasing his lead, ading endorsements, and will have a solid money chase disclosure in January

I want to contribute, but he cupboard is bare. Will manage $9 before next Tuesday to do my best.

The debate that didn't matter. Maybe its time to start voting!

https://www.yahoo.com/news/debate-didnt-matter-045136877.html

Kind of a cute take on the December debate.

Snip//

Biden will stay in the lead. Warren will continue her slow fade. Bernie Sanders will keep consolidating his position as the great left-populist alternative to the frontrunner. Buttigieg will settle in as the fallback option for centrists if Biden has a complete meltdown. Klobuchar will still fail to light anyone's fire. Yang will remain the true wild card. And Steyer will continue to be the guy who bought himself onto the debate stage. (Perhaps Michael Bloomberg will eventually figure out a way to do the same.)

Another debate in the can. Maybe it's time to finally start voting.


At least the next debate will focus on the first state to have a real vote...

3 winners and 4 losers from the December 2019 Democratic debate Winners: Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar.

3 winners and 4 losers from the December 2019 Democratic debate
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/12/19/21030908/who-won-december-2019-democratic-debate
Winners: Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar. Loser: Pete Buttigieg.
By Dylan Matthews, Zack Beauchamp, Ella Nilsen, Andrew Prokop, German Lopez, and Anna North Dec 19, 2019, 11:20pm EST '

Detailed presentation of the candidates performances.

snip//
Winner: Joe Biden

So far in 2019, Joe Biden has not been what anyone would call a debate superstar. His answers have often come off as rambling and incoherent, giving rise to questions about his age.

This debate was different. To be sure, Biden is still the frontrunner, with a very healthy lead in the national polls. So Biden could have just come into the debate, done enough to not lose, and he probably would have still remained on top.

But Biden didn’t just coast; he genuinely did well. Asked about his claims that he’ll be able to work with Republicans if he defeats Trump, Biden gave one of the best answers of the night....


continued//

In the less substantial moments, Biden was also sharp. When Politico’s Tim Alberta looked confused at Biden’s joke that Winston Churchill was the oldest president in US history, Biden quickly ribbed him: “I was joking. Politico doesn’t have much of a sense of humor.” When Bernie Sanders kept his hand raised through one of Biden’s answers, Biden quipped, “Put your hand down, Bernie.” The moments landed well with the audience, earning Biden the kind of laughs he rarely saw in previous debates.

Biden also benefited from the other candidates spending much of the night attacking each other instead of him. In particular, Pete Buttigieg — who’s had some good polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states to vote — came under fire from both Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren. (More on him below.)

Biden by and large avoided similar attacks throughout the night, while making some dents in concerns about his age and gaffes. For the frontrunner, that adds up to a big win.


snip//

Winner: Amy Klobuchar

A very different Amy Klobuchar was standing on the debate stage Thursday.

Gone was the shaky candidate with the quivering hair that Rachel Dratch parodied on Saturday Night Live. In her place was a confident Klobuchar who was in a groove all night, with personal anecdotes, quippy one-liners about wine caves, a snappy moment telling Pete Buttigieg to respect the experience of his fellow candidates onstage, and clear, substantive responses to policy questions.

“We should have someone heading up this ticket that has actually won and been able to show they can gather the support that you talk about — moderate Republicans and independents as well as a fired up Democratic base and not just done it once,” Klobuchar told Buttigieg at one point, methodically dismantling his pitch for a fresh face in the White House. “I have done it three times. I think winning matters.”

There’s a clear strategy to Klobuchar going after Buttigieg — she wants to be the main moderate alternative to Joe Biden in the Democratic field. Voters in Iowa and New Hampshire who like Buttigieg often mention Klobuchar in the same breath. “Feisty” is often the word voters use to describe her, adding they think she could stand up to Trump — if she can only break through the Democratic pack.


A good read throughout. The only other winner was Foreign Policy.

Here is where we are in the polls as of 12/19 from 270towin

https://www.270towin.com/2020-democratic-nomination/



Joe is breaking the 30 mark. Below is the Aggregate of all the averages from Wikipedia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#November_2019



Let's see what happens in the polls as we ring in the New Year in the next few days.

UncleNoel's National Dem Nomination Poll Roundup to date: JB 27.4, BS 17.5, EW 14.5, PB 9.8

As we begin the week of the December Debate, here is what it looks like.




Hope I got it all correct.
Commentary: Biden steady as she goes zooming along on the highroad, Sanders switching lanes with Warren as she dips lower while Bernie remains steady in his lane. Buttigieg just a bare blip on the national scene mostly off the highways and on the back roads with the other low-tier candidates but he and Warren are swerving around each other in some polls..

Reuters/Ipsos Poll: Biden 19, Sanders 14, Warren 9, Buttigieg 6!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/
Biden below 20?

Warren 9 and Buttigieg 6?

Only Sanders is remotely OK.

What is wrong with this poll anyway??? It is rated B- by 538. It's a D in my book, but we have to live with it.

At the bottom of the Reuters article is a link t their pdf withthe poll results.

'No Malarkey': Biden could shock the pundits and win

Andrew RomanoWest Coast Correspondent
,Yahoo News•December 3, 2019
https://news.yahoo.com/no-malarkey-biden-could-shock-the-pundits-and-win-215055718.html

Sorry for not snipping it up, no time to edit. But it is worth the read.

It’s been the Big Assumption driving the Democratic presidential primary, the thing that all the major players — from the savvy Sunday morning show pundits to the candidates themselves — have simply taken for granted: Joe Biden may be leading in the national polls now, but there’s no way he’s actually going to win the nomination.

It’s time to start wondering whether they’re wrong.

Consider the story so far. After months of speculation, the former vice president formally launched his 2020 bid on April 25. Observers described his rollout as “rocky” and said he had “stumbled” his way to the starting line. No matter — Biden immediately shot up to 41 percent in the national polls. The experts then said his bounce would fade amid further missteps. Not quite: It actually turned out to be “especially large compared with the post-launch bounces of other candidates.”

In the first round of debates, Kamala Harris eviscerated Biden over his resistance to federally mandated busing and his willingness to work with segregationists. Other racial fumbles — such as saying “poor kids” are just as bright as “white kids” — followed at a regular clip. But Biden’s national polling average never once dipped below 26 percent, or two points higher than his average in the three weeks leading up to his campaign kickoff, and whenever it fell at all, it would quickly rebound to about 30 percent.

Today Biden leads his closest national rival, Bernie Sanders, by more than 10 percentage points on average. Buoyed by the overwhelming support of black Democrats, he’s still polling at 27 percent.

Biden meets with residents of Storm Lake, Iowa. (Photo: Charlie Neibergall/AP)

As David Axelrod, former adviser to President Barack Obama, recently put it, “so many scenarios … are dependent on this idea that Biden is going to collapse.” It’s why a glut of relatively little-known centrists — Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado — remain in the race against all odds; they aspire to fill the void that will be left behind when Biden inevitably implodes. (Two who were in that category, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock and former Pennsylvania Rep. Joe Sestak, acknowledged reality and ended their campaigns over the weekend.) It’s why Harris and Cory Booker are still hanging on; they’re hoping to reap Biden’s support among blacks after his fall. It’s why Mike Bloomberg decided to jump in at the last minute. And it’s why Pete Buttigieg has rebranded himself as a pragmatic Midwestern moderate — to siphon off Biden backers in Iowa and ride the momentum of a strong finish there to victory in New Hampshire and beyond.

But as Axelrod went on to say, Biden and his fans have stubbornly refused to play along. “The Biden thing is the strangest thing I've ever seen in politics because the guy is up there in the air and everybody is just assuming he's going to come down,” Axelrod explained. “There is kind of a Mr. Magoo kind of quality to the whole thing, but he's still driving, you know? He's still moving forward. You worry that he's going to hit the wall at any given moment, but he hasn’t.”

Biden’s rivals will point out that the primaries take place in numerous states over several months, and that despite his impressive numbers in national polls he is in fourth place in the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire, behind Buttigieg, Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Biden’s support is a mirage, they argue. It’s all about name recognition and perceived electability. It vanishes wherever people are paying close attention. As soon as he loses the first two states, it’s going to vanish everywhere else. And another candidate will capitalize.

This has long been the prediction of Biden skeptics, and it’s still possible that it will come to pass. But the very durability of Biden’s support — particularly among older black voters — suggests another possible outcome. As the New York Times reported Monday, Biden doesn’t actually need to win Iowa or New Hampshire to accrue the 1,990 pledged delegates required to clinch the nomination. He simply needs to hold onto black voters in Southern states and urban areas.

If he does, Democratic Party rules will work in his favor. Districts with high concentrations of Democrats award more delegates, and black voters are overwhelmingly Democratic. The same is true of most urban areas in large states such as California and Texas, which both vote, along with Tennessee, Alabama, North Carolina and Virginia, on Super Tuesday (March 3). At that point, 38 percent of all pledged will have been allocated, making it difficult, if not impossible, for any candidate who isn’t at least close to the lead to catch up.

At the moment, Biden is on track to perform very well after Iowa and New Hampshire. In Nevada, he leads by nearly 10 points on average. In South Carolina, the last state to vote before Super Tuesday, he is currently averaging 35.3 percent in the polls — more than double his closest competitor. Among black voters there, Biden is ahead by 34 points. The latest surveys in California, Texas, North Carolina and Virginia also show him in the lead. And the last two national CNN polls showed Biden averaging 49 percent with black Democratic primary voters — “good enough,” notes Harry Enten, “not only for a 35-point lead over his Democratic competitors, but good enough to beat all of them combined by about 10 points.”

The question, then, is whether Biden’s voters will stick with him past his expected losses in Iowa and New Hampshire. If they do, he will be in position to arrive at Milwaukee’s Democratic National Convention next summer with more delegates than anyone else. And even if Biden’s backers are tempted to jump ship, where will they go? To Buttigieg, who is currently polling at zero percent among black Democrats in South Carolina and has repeatedly struggled to connect? To Harris or Booker, the two African-Americans in the race, who aren’t doing much better — and who are also barely registering in Iowa and New Hampshire? To Warren or Sanders, whom most older black voters consider too liberal and impractical to win?

Over the weekend, Biden launched an eight-day bus tour across Iowa. It will be his most extensive campaign swing to date, and with it he debuted a new slogan: “No Malarkey.” The reviews on Twitter (home to young anti-Biden progressives, both black and white) and in the press (which takes its cues from Twitter) were withering: “77-Year-Old Candidate Hopes ‘No Malarkey’ Bus Will Excite Voters,” New York magazine wrote snarkily.

It’s a familiar trope: The same old Biden — who’s been saying things like “malarkey” his entire political career — meets the usual chattering-class mockery. The pitch Biden is making this week in Iowa is familiar too: He is the only candidate who can “beat [Trump] like a drum” next November. Biden’s bet is that regardless of what happens in Iowa, more Democrats prefer the same old thing to something new. He has yet to be proven wrong.


Not really the same old thing, but a touch of the line that old wine, old shoes and old friends are the best things, as they say. Still, he is a progressive and the issues he has fought for are not the same old thing.

Biden on bus tour bites Jill's finger! Not a gafffe, but a laugh!

Bo Erickson CBS

@BoKnowsNews

.@JoeBiden's "No Malarkey!" Iowa bus tour starts in Council Bluffs with laughs: An excited @DrBiden gestures and almost hits Joe in the head...and then he bit her finger:
https://twitter.com/BoKnowsNews/status/1200901715618222082
6:17 AM - Dec 1, 2019

SurveyUSA's summary of the race post-November debate. It pretty well sums it up to now...

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #25016
Data Collected: 11/20/2019 - 11/21/2019
Release Date: 11/26/2019

Neither Burisma Nor Bloopers Nor Unexpected Grand-Baby Can Take Bloom off Biden Rose for Democrats Desperate to Defeat Donald[Trump;

While Warren & Sanders Do-Si-Do for 2nd Place Nationally, Buttigieg Leaps into 4th, Doubling His Support In a Month; Then Came Bloomberg ...

10 weeks to the Iowa Caucuses, likely Democratic primary voters nationwide can't quit Joe Biden, according to SurveyUSA's newest tracking poll, conducted immediately after the 11/20/19 Democratic Candidate Debate in Atlanta. Though Biden's children and now suddenly a grandchild are in the news for all the wrong reasons, though Biden continues to demonstrate to all who pay attention that he struggles to express himself, though he inadvertently steps on the toes of his core constituents, and though Republicans see him as a punching bag, Biden's poll numbers are inert.

In 4 consecutive SurveyUSA tracking polls, Biden has never polled higher than 33%, never polled lower than 32%. Though some see the former Vice President's pants on fire, likely Democratic Primary voters stick with the devil they know. Biden has led in every SurveyUSA nationwide poll, never by less than 10 points, today by 15 points.

Given the chance to choose any of the Democrats still in the race, but before Michael Bloomberg is added to the mix, likely primary voters today appear to have second thoughts about Elizabeth Warren, who drops 6 points from October to November and now polls at 16%, one statistically-insignificant point behind Bernie Sanders, who today, for the 3rd consecutive month, polls at 17%.

Pete Buttigieg had been at 5% in both September and October, but today, as Americans set their Thanksgiving tables, Buttigieg leaps to 12% nationwide, materially ahead of the rest of the pack, 4 points behind Warren and 7 points ahead of Kamala Harris who, despite a strong performance in Atlanta, today finishes 5th.

Combined, Harris and Cory Booker, the other black Democrat on the debate stage, have the support of 12% of African American Democratic primary voters. By contrast, Biden is today backed by 53% of African American Democratic primary voters. Biden was backed by 35% of black Democrats in August, 42% of black Democrats in September, and now 53% of black Democrats in November. 1% of black voters back Buttigieg.

Among white middle-class Democrats, Buttigieg's support doubles month-on month, vaulting Mayor Pete past Warren and past Sanders and landing in Biden's rear-view mirror.


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