When you think about it, it is amazing. On one side there are hollywood millions pumped into the campaign of a nasty, arrogant, dismissive, and ruthless guy who danced ballet and served with Israel's IDF. He made his first big impact in national politics by convincing a relatively unknown Arkansas Governor that money was not just an important part of campaigning, it was the only thing. In return, Clinton put him in ever higher positions. Rahmbo was instrumental in getting NAFTA drafted and passed. He also repeatedly, with many confirmed reports of the pleasure he took in doing so, told liberals and progressives to get fucked.
Rahm spent a reported $15,000,000, hogging the airways, pushing messaging on T&V, radio, and newspapers, and mailings to voters than can be measured by the kiloton per voter.
On the other side, you have an educated, polite, pleasant and very smart guy who, despite snarky and sneaky attacks by Rahmbo, is no novice when it comes to politics. He sat on the Chicago City Council, he was elected to the Cook County Board of Commissioners, and he is currently the floor leader of the Board. You don't get there by being a flyweight facing Mohammed Ali.
Chuy spent about 1.3 million, coming into the race quite late (due to another favorite to oppose Rahm, who would have run but her for diagnosis of brain tumors.)
The idea that they are tied is shocking, but pleasing. But that is a trusted indie poll that has been pretty accurate throughout its history. Polls purchased by Rahm show him ahead by 2-3 points, just at the margin of error. Even those results are striking and should cause Rahm to be checking his undies for telltale skidmarks.
From today's Crains Chicago Business, a relatively conservative, pro-business magazine:
"Garcia, experienced as an alderman, state senator and now county commissioner, is a genuinely amiable, personable guy. The worst thing opponents have to say is he's too professorial and perhaps too nice to be mayor of Chicago. In contrast, even Mayor Rahm Emanuel's best friends recognize that likeability is hardly his long suit. Obama candidly calls him "hardheaded" in a commercial.
"So a relatively unknown candidate, outspent $15 million to $1.3 million, makes history by forcing the incumbent into a runoff. There were numerous policy differences with Emanuel, but I believe that after being introduced to a wider public, Garcia's likeability factor came into play."
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20150304/OPINION/150309909/cant-buy-them-love-the-likeability-factor-in-chicagos-mayoral-race
I predict a couple of things.
1. Despite putting his heavy presidential thumb on the primary scales, Obama will be sure to stay away from the run-off election. There is too much to lose locally, and his presence is no guarantee that Rahmbo will benefit from his active support.
2. The grass roots funding for Chuy is shocking local political observers. Some of it is anti-Rahm, some of it is pro-Chuy, and some appears to be a block of people who are tired of what has been happening to this wonderful city. Watch for grass roots funding to have a large impact on the election. (Which is good for Chuy, since he doesn't have millions coming in from the West Coasters)
3. Get ready to record some of the attack ads from Rahm. Rahm has always been a "take no prisoners" type of jerk, but this time he actually faces a popular opponent and may lose. Like a cornered, rabid dog, his basest and most common instinct will be to strike, and strike hard.
How Chuy responds to the lies that Rahm will be sure to throw at him will be the key to this election. That, and the fact that people may tire of just how abusive Rahm will be towards the end.
The election is April 7th. If you are a progressive, if you want to donate (PLEASE!), go here:
http://www.chicagoforchuy.com/index.html
or here:
https://secure.actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/38787
