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Member since: Mon Jan 30, 2006, 06:07 PM
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Poll: Clinton leads Trump by 7 points after convention

Source: Politico

Last week’s Democratic National Convention has vaulted Hillary Clinton back into the lead in the presidential race, according to a new poll released Monday.

The former secretary of state leads her Republican opponent Donald Trump by seven percentage points, 46 percent to 39 percent, in a fresh CBS News national poll. Clinton’s seven-point lead comes just one week after last week’s poll, in which she and Trump were tied at 42. Since then, Clinton’s support among poll respondents grew by four points while Trump’s dropped by three.

The Democratic convention also offered Clinton a substantial bounce to her favorability numbers: The number of respondents who said they had positive views of Clinton climbed to 36 percent from 31 percent a week ago. Similarly, the number of respondents who said they viewed the former secretary of state unfavorably dropped six points, from 56 percent to 50 percent, in the wake of the Philadelphia convention.

More than half of those who responded to the poll said they hold an unfavorable opinion of Trump, while just 31 percent said they view him favorably, down three points from his own post-convention bounce a week ago.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/cbs-poll-226493

More details here:


Slate: Longtime Trump advisor claims Khizr Khan is a terrorist double-agent.


The Donald Trump campaign's response to bereaved Muslim American military father Khizr Khan's speech at the Democratic National Convention has been, shall we say, erratic. Trump suggested Khan's wife Ghazala Khan had appeared beside him but not spoken as the result of misogynistic Muslim oppression; she subsequently wrote in the Washington Post that Trump was wrong. Trump also asserted that Khizr Khan "has no right" to attack him for being ignorant of the Constitution; as many observers immediately pointed out, the Constitution itself grants Khan that right. Then Sunday night, at about the same time that Trump's running mate Mike Pence put out a respectful statement praising the Khans' son for his sacrifice, longtime Trump adviser and friend Roger Stone escalated things way, way further than all but the most cynical/drug-addled among us could have imagined:

Roger Stone @RogerJStoneJr
Mr. Khan more than an aggrieved father of a Muslim son- he's Muslim Brotherhood agent helping Hillary


What The Media Is Not Telling You About The Muslim Who Attacked Donald Trump: He Is A Muslim Brotherhood Agent Who Wants To Advance Sharia Law And Bring Muslims Into The United States


Roger Stone is not just some guy; in fact, he appears to have been Donald Trump's primary political adviser for decades. Hell, maybe Trump won't try to distance himself from Stone. Maybe this is the response to Khizr Khan that Trump has decided to go with. At this point, would that really be all that surprising?

Did the Don himself leak his wife's nude photos as a distraction from the Khan story?

It seems all too plausible a theory . . . . What a monster, if he sacrificed his wife this way.

But he failed miserably. Since Dems are not Rethugs, he couldn't push the re-set button on the ongoing political controversy.


Late on Saturday night, amid Donald Trump’s ongoing feud with Gold Star parents Khizr and Ghazala Khan, the New York Post, which endorsed Trump in April, published several nude photographs of the candidate’s wife. “THE OGLE OFFICE,” the Post’s Sunday edition punned.


At the DNC last week, Khizr Khan, whose son, U.S. Army Captain Humayun Khan, was killed by a suicide bomber while fighting in Iraq in 2004, said that Trump had “sacrificed nothing” in his life. Trump said that yes, he has made sacrifices, and he works very hard, and also why didn’t Khizr’s wife speak at the DNC, is it because she is a Muslim woman and Muslim women are not permitted to speak? No, actually, it is because she is a mother overcome with grief. Trump’s comments, Khizr said later, were “typical of a person without a soul.”

This, coming on the heels of a pretty terrible Republican National Convention, makes for a rather inauspicious start to the general election for Donald Trump. Still, is it any wonder that his campaign might want to create a diversion? It’s also the second time in two weeks that Melania has gotten thrown under the bus for the Trump campaign’s ineptitude and routine mediocrity. So much for being “really good” for women!

Everybody knows that Melania is a former model, although that never seems to stop Trump from missing an opportunity to mention it. (Perhaps the most convincing argument that they were purposefully leaked is the fact that Trump hasn’t tweeted about it.) To use her past now as a political plow only feeds into his self-conception as a Strong Man and a Great Leader, further exoticizing and eroticizing his (largely silent!) mysterious European wife.

New Morning Consult Poll: Hillary's 7 point swing now puts her 3 points ahead.

The 3 point lead is within the 4 point margin of error -- but the 7 point swing is good to see.


Hillary Clinton is once again leading Donald Trump in the presidential race after her party’s Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.

The former secretary of State leads the brash businessman, 43 percent to 40 percent, in a new Morning Consult survey taken in the days following the DNC gathering. It’s a 7-point swing from the previous poll, in which Trump surged to a 4-point lead following the Republican National Committee’s convention in Cleveland.

Almost one in five voters (17 percent) remain undecided.

Can we please talk about Trump's voice? (Instead of Hillary's)

I've never seen one comment about Trump's voice in any media report, but I hate it.

It grates on me.

I think it's too high pitched, for a guy.

And it's too nasal.

And he needs to learn to modulate his tones.

And that NY accent seems phony. I know he's from NY, but none of the people that I know from NY sound like Trump.

(His daughter Ivanka sounds like she grew up in a whole different family. Oh wait -- she did.)

And he goes on and on and on and on.

Anyway, every time I hear that voice of his I just want to throw something at the TV. I'd make his head spin so hard!

PPP poll: Hillary now ahead by 5% and remaining undecided vote is "very Democratic leaning."

The conventions have improved her favorability ratings while leaving Trump's poor ratings unchanged.


PPP's new national poll, taken completely after both party's conventions, finds that Hillary Clinton emerged with a much more positive image than she had a month ago. Donald Trump meanwhile is just as unpopular as he was before the conventions.

Clinton's net favorability improved by 9 points over the last month. She's still not popular, with a -6 net favorability at 45/51, but it's a good deal better than the -15 spread she had at 39/54 a month ago. The gains are particularly attributable to Democrats increasing in their enthusiasm for her, going from giving her a 76/15 rating to an 83/12 one. Trump, on the other hand, is at a -22 net favorability with 36% of voters seeing him favorably to 58% with a negative one. That's barely changed at all from the 35/58 standing we found for him in late June.

Clinton leads the race with 46% to 41% for Trump, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%. In a head to head just between Clinton and Trump, Clinton hits 50% and leads Trump 50-45. A month ago Clinton led 45-41 in the full field contest and 48-44 in the head to head so there hasn't been much change. But not much change is good news for Clinton. We've been writing for months that this race is shaping up pretty similarly both nationally and at the state level to the margins Barack Obama won by in 2012- not a huge landslide by any means, but a solid victory. The conventions have passed without any change to that big picture, and that leaves Clinton as the favorite going into the final three months.

It's also important to note that most of the remaining undecided pool is very Democratic leaning. They give Barack Obama a 55/33 approval rating, and they'd rather have him as President than Trump by a 59/10 spread. If they ended up voting for Clinton and Trump by those proportions, it would push Clinton's lead up from 5 points to 8. But they don't like Clinton (a 4/83 favorability) or Trump (a 2/89 favorability). A lot of these folks are disaffected Bernie Sanders voters, and even after the successful convention this week they're still not sold on Clinton yet. She and her surrogates will have to keep working to try to win those folks over and if they can the election enters landslide territory.


Philadelphia Magazine: Bernie Delegates Scalping DNC Credentials

So some of the disruptors in the audience really were disruptors.


“We made like $5,000 since Wednesday,” bragged one Ohio delegate (pictured, left) while standing in Room 224 of the Philadelphia Airport Econo Lodge in Tinicum Township, Pennsylvania on Thursday. (The delegate to his right confirmed that he had sold his pass as well.) At least six Ohio delegates at the party told me that they and some other members of the state delegation had been selling their DNC security credentials to anyone who wanted to buy them, and Philadelphia magazine was able to independently verify that many people at the party were, in fact, delegates.

The crew partying at the motel had all been ardent supporters of Bernie Sanders. In fact, some of them made the national news on Tuesday after staging a walkout from the convention floor.

“I’m the one screaming really loud in the videos,” one told me, pulling me into a quiet corner of the room to gleefully show me a video of him screaming. Once the walkout was done, the floor of the DNC was the last place these delegates wanted to be, and someone in the group came up with the idea of selling their DNC credentials for cold, hard cash.


Scratching my head over this seemingly gaping hole in DNC security, I asked once more if the delegates are able to travel from their hotels in Center City to the DNC without showing anything with their photo on it.

“Correct, correct,” replied one of the delegates, this one from Philadelphia. “You don’t need ID for anything.”


And they were also being sold on Craigslist:


Security is tight at the Democratic National Convention, but there is still a way to get in without being a delegate, donor, or member of the media. You’ll just have to reach into your wallet.
Credentials to enter the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia are currently available for purchase via Craigslist, according to a Fortune review of the online marketplace.

For example, one seller is offering a pair of delegate floor passes to Thursday night’s speeches — including Hillary Clinton’s acceptance speech — for $1,000. Plus, you’ll even get access to a DNC-related Lady Gaga concert in nearby Camden, New Jersey.

Another seller is offering three credentials for $675 total, while the low mark is this offer of a single pass for $200.

How Trump Could Make a Mint Off the White House: conflict of interest laws don't apply

to the President or to the Vice President. (That's why Cheney was never called to account for his Halliburton dealings.)

Up till now, Presidents were only putting their assets into blind trusts, or into mutual funds (like Obama) as a sign of good faith -- not because the law requires them to divest. It doesn't.

This makes it all the more critical that Trump release his tax returns. But there is almost no pressure for him to do so. Why is the media continuing to give him free air time?


Every employee of the executive branch is required by law to avoid taking part in decisions that might directly affect their economic interests. But these laws do not apply to the president or the vice president. In practice, previous presidents have followed those rules anyway, putting their major holdings in blind trusts to avoid any real or perceived conflict of interest.


Stuart C. Gilman, a longtime employee at the Office of Government Ethics (OGE) who now advises countries around the globe on anti-corruption efforts, said that the only analogous situation he has seen is disgraced former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. But even Berlusconi’s efforts to appear above-board were more substantive than what Trump has proposed. “He’d owned all of the private media in Italy, became prime minister, and then controlled public media,” Gilman said. “Initially, his senior judicial adviser came to the U.S. Office of Government Ethics about what can be done to resolve conflict of interest. We recommended he get a true blind trust.”

Having a president whose personal wealth could be impacted by his policy decisions presents a huge potential problem, according to Noah Bookbinder, executive director of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW). “Public officials need to be making decisions that are in the public interest, that are in the best interest of the American people,” he said. “Not decisions that are in their own financial interests.”

While Trump has not released his tax returns since 1981, he has filed a mandatory personal financial disclosure statement, listing his current holdings and estimating their value. The 104-page document identifies hundreds of Trump-run companies — foreign and domestic — and scores of businesses in which he owns stock.

These hundreds of entities pose nearly endless conflicts. In a Trump presidency, every government contract not awarded to his companies could be litigated, environmental regulations that affect his businesses could be instantly repealed, and long-fought banking regulations could be dismantled at the drop of a hat. And that’s just from looking at his financial disclosure form; because Trump refuses to release his tax returns, scores of conflicts of interest remain unknown.

CNN instant poll of speech watchers -- Hillary did better than Trump did last week.

very positive reaction Hillary 71% ( 57% of GOP convention watchers last week had very positive reaction)

I guess we had a few flags after all. n/t

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