July 31, 2016

New Morning Consult Poll: Hillary's 7 point swing now puts her 3 points ahead.

The 3 point lead is within the 4 point margin of error -- but the 7 point swing is good to see.

https://morningconsult.com/2016/07/31/presidential-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/

Hillary Clinton is once again leading Donald Trump in the presidential race after her party’s Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.

The former secretary of State leads the brash businessman, 43 percent to 40 percent, in a new Morning Consult survey taken in the days following the DNC gathering. It’s a 7-point swing from the previous poll, in which Trump surged to a 4-point lead following the Republican National Committee’s convention in Cleveland.

Almost one in five voters (17 percent) remain undecided.

July 31, 2016

Can we please talk about Trump's voice? (Instead of Hillary's)

I've never seen one comment about Trump's voice in any media report, but I hate it.

It grates on me.

I think it's too high pitched, for a guy.

And it's too nasal.

And he needs to learn to modulate his tones.

And that NY accent seems phony. I know he's from NY, but none of the people that I know from NY sound like Trump.

(His daughter Ivanka sounds like she grew up in a whole different family. Oh wait -- she did.)

And he goes on and on and on and on.

Anyway, every time I hear that voice of his I just want to throw something at the TV. I'd make his head spin so hard!

July 31, 2016

PPP poll: Hillary now ahead by 5% and remaining undecided vote is "very Democratic leaning."

The conventions have improved her favorability ratings while leaving Trump's poor ratings unchanged.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/polls/

PPP's new national poll, taken completely after both party's conventions, finds that Hillary Clinton emerged with a much more positive image than she had a month ago. Donald Trump meanwhile is just as unpopular as he was before the conventions.

Clinton's net favorability improved by 9 points over the last month. She's still not popular, with a -6 net favorability at 45/51, but it's a good deal better than the -15 spread she had at 39/54 a month ago. The gains are particularly attributable to Democrats increasing in their enthusiasm for her, going from giving her a 76/15 rating to an 83/12 one. Trump, on the other hand, is at a -22 net favorability with 36% of voters seeing him favorably to 58% with a negative one. That's barely changed at all from the 35/58 standing we found for him in late June.

Clinton leads the race with 46% to 41% for Trump, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%. In a head to head just between Clinton and Trump, Clinton hits 50% and leads Trump 50-45. A month ago Clinton led 45-41 in the full field contest and 48-44 in the head to head so there hasn't been much change. But not much change is good news for Clinton. We've been writing for months that this race is shaping up pretty similarly both nationally and at the state level to the margins Barack Obama won by in 2012- not a huge landslide by any means, but a solid victory. The conventions have passed without any change to that big picture, and that leaves Clinton as the favorite going into the final three months.

It's also important to note that most of the remaining undecided pool is very Democratic leaning. They give Barack Obama a 55/33 approval rating, and they'd rather have him as President than Trump by a 59/10 spread. If they ended up voting for Clinton and Trump by those proportions, it would push Clinton's lead up from 5 points to 8. But they don't like Clinton (a 4/83 favorability) or Trump (a 2/89 favorability). A lot of these folks are disaffected Bernie Sanders voters, and even after the successful convention this week they're still not sold on Clinton yet. She and her surrogates will have to keep working to try to win those folks over and if they can the election enters landslide territory.

SNIP

July 31, 2016

Philadelphia Magazine: Bernie Delegates Scalping DNC Credentials

So some of the disruptors in the audience really were disruptors.

http://www.phillymag.com/news/2016/07/29/bernie-delegates-dnc-credentials-clinton/


“We made like $5,000 since Wednesday,” bragged one Ohio delegate (pictured, left) while standing in Room 224 of the Philadelphia Airport Econo Lodge in Tinicum Township, Pennsylvania on Thursday. (The delegate to his right confirmed that he had sold his pass as well.) At least six Ohio delegates at the party told me that they and some other members of the state delegation had been selling their DNC security credentials to anyone who wanted to buy them, and Philadelphia magazine was able to independently verify that many people at the party were, in fact, delegates.

The crew partying at the motel had all been ardent supporters of Bernie Sanders. In fact, some of them made the national news on Tuesday after staging a walkout from the convention floor.

“I’m the one screaming really loud in the videos,” one told me, pulling me into a quiet corner of the room to gleefully show me a video of him screaming. Once the walkout was done, the floor of the DNC was the last place these delegates wanted to be, and someone in the group came up with the idea of selling their DNC credentials for cold, hard cash.

SNIP

Scratching my head over this seemingly gaping hole in DNC security, I asked once more if the delegates are able to travel from their hotels in Center City to the DNC without showing anything with their photo on it.

“Correct, correct,” replied one of the delegates, this one from Philadelphia. “You don’t need ID for anything.”

-_________________________________________________

And they were also being sold on Craigslist:

http://fortune.com/2016/07/28/democratic-national-convention-tickets-on-craigslist-for-as-much-as-500/

Security is tight at the Democratic National Convention, but there is still a way to get in without being a delegate, donor, or member of the media. You’ll just have to reach into your wallet.
Credentials to enter the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia are currently available for purchase via Craigslist, according to a Fortune review of the online marketplace.

For example, one seller is offering a pair of delegate floor passes to Thursday night’s speeches — including Hillary Clinton’s acceptance speech — for $1,000. Plus, you’ll even get access to a DNC-related Lady Gaga concert in nearby Camden, New Jersey.

Another seller is offering three credentials for $675 total, while the low mark is this offer of a single pass for $200.

July 29, 2016

How Trump Could Make a Mint Off the White House: conflict of interest laws don't apply

to the President or to the Vice President. (That's why Cheney was never called to account for his Halliburton dealings.)

Up till now, Presidents were only putting their assets into blind trusts, or into mutual funds (like Obama) as a sign of good faith -- not because the law requires them to divest. It doesn't.

This makes it all the more critical that Trump release his tax returns. But there is almost no pressure for him to do so. Why is the media continuing to give him free air time?

http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2016/06/14/3785467/trump-conflicts-of-interest/

Every employee of the executive branch is required by law to avoid taking part in decisions that might directly affect their economic interests. But these laws do not apply to the president or the vice president. In practice, previous presidents have followed those rules anyway, putting their major holdings in blind trusts to avoid any real or perceived conflict of interest.

SNIP

Stuart C. Gilman, a longtime employee at the Office of Government Ethics (OGE) who now advises countries around the globe on anti-corruption efforts, said that the only analogous situation he has seen is disgraced former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. But even Berlusconi’s efforts to appear above-board were more substantive than what Trump has proposed. “He’d owned all of the private media in Italy, became prime minister, and then controlled public media,” Gilman said. “Initially, his senior judicial adviser came to the U.S. Office of Government Ethics about what can be done to resolve conflict of interest. We recommended he get a true blind trust.”

Having a president whose personal wealth could be impacted by his policy decisions presents a huge potential problem, according to Noah Bookbinder, executive director of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW). “Public officials need to be making decisions that are in the public interest, that are in the best interest of the American people,” he said. “Not decisions that are in their own financial interests.”

While Trump has not released his tax returns since 1981, he has filed a mandatory personal financial disclosure statement, listing his current holdings and estimating their value. The 104-page document identifies hundreds of Trump-run companies — foreign and domestic — and scores of businesses in which he owns stock.

These hundreds of entities pose nearly endless conflicts. In a Trump presidency, every government contract not awarded to his companies could be litigated, environmental regulations that affect his businesses could be instantly repealed, and long-fought banking regulations could be dismantled at the drop of a hat. And that’s just from looking at his financial disclosure form; because Trump refuses to release his tax returns, scores of conflicts of interest remain unknown.

July 29, 2016

CNN instant poll of speech watchers -- Hillary did better than Trump did last week.

very positive reaction Hillary 71% ( 57% of GOP convention watchers last week had very positive reaction)

July 29, 2016

I guess we had a few flags after all. n/t

July 29, 2016

"Donald, Donald," said Jennifer Granholm, "You are SO VAIN."

"You probably think this speech is about you."

July 28, 2016

That was a great video about the don's taxes!

July 28, 2016

The majority of voters in WA voted for Hillary and do NOT support a busters' walk-out tonight.

It is particularly galling that the WA state busters would choose to grandstand in this way, when they know that they don't represent the will of the primary voters.

Here in WA, Bernie swept the low-participation, elitist, non-representative caucuses, and Hillary decisively won the primary, in which three times as many voters participated. Years ago our voters approved a referendum replacing the caucuses with the primary. But the party insisted on choosing all the delegates at caucuses, and they won the court fight.

This is the reality and Hillary supporters recognize the results of the caucus are the only results that count, so this isn't about fighting the primary.

But all those busters who are grandstanding tonight know that the majority of voters in our state voted FOR Hillary and do NOT support their action. And yet they are planning to take this very public action against the Democratic nominee.

(Note: I'm deliberately using the term busters to distinguish them from Bernie supporters in general, who are not joining in the walk-out.)

http://thetab.com/us/2016/07/28/bernie-sanders-delegates-will-walk-out-of-hillary-clintons-speech-tonight-42493

PHILADELPHIA –– Bernie Sanders delegates furious with Hillary Clinton’s nomination are planning to storm out of her speech tonight, The Tab has learned.

Chris, a delegate from Washington State, told us: “Half the Bernie delegates walked out on Tuesday and didn’t come back. Today the other half are walking out.

SNIP

One delegate we spoke to, Catherine from Michigan, told us she won’t be participating.

She said: “I have heard about these plans. Bernie Sanders endorsed Hillary Clinton and I support his endorsement, so I won’t be walking out.

“I’ve also heard outside agitators are trying to convince Bernie delegates to leave tonight.”