Ghost Dog
Ghost Dog's JournalBrexit:What changes after the 31st?
WHAT CHANGES ON JAN 31?
Effectively, nothing. There will be a business-as-usual transition period until the end of 2020, meaning that investors in Britain and the EU will see no change in services on Monday, Feb. 3.
All EU financial rules will still be applicable in Britain until the end of December...
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-finance-factbox/the-city-and-brexit-what-changes-and-when-idUKKBN1ZR1ES?il=0
... Britain and France, the EU’s two nuclear armed U.N. Security Council permanent members, have long been by far the bloc’s leading military powers. Britain was also the bloc’s only member of the “Five Eyes” intelligence sharing group, giving it privileged access to the output of U.S. spies. To contain the damage from Britain’s exit, the bloc is keen to keep London in a tight security and defence relationship in the future.
The departure of a traditional proponent of trans-Atlantic ties will leave more say to Paris, which has greater ambitions for the integration of European defence...
... With Germany seen leaning more towards a traditional French model of a strong state role, Britain will be an absence in discussions about industrial policy, vetting foreign investment, state aid to industry and creating national champions...
... Britain was by far the largest EU state outside the euro zone, meaning the other eight countries that have kept national currencies lose their most important ally when their interests diverge from those of states that use the euro...
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-dynamics-explainer/missing-you-already-how-brexit-tilts-eu-political-alliances-idUKKBN1ZR1BE
Trump's reckless rampage quickens Rapture
... The impeachment-fearing president - a permanent foreign policy novice - proudly understands nothing about the region, its politics, or its religions.
That means that like Bush before him, Trump remains susceptible to manipulation from top advisers who have larger plans. Just as Bush got steered down the road of Iraqi ruin by Dick Cheney, who kept one eye on his Halliburton stock, as well as a flock of neoconservatives who remained committed to their decades-long plot of Iraqi regime change, Trump's advisers on Iran include key players like Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Vice President Mike Pence.
Both believe there is a battle between good and evil that will end with the "Rapture" - following an apocalyptic war in the Middle East, Jesus Christ will return to Israel, bestowing eternal redemption to Christians, who will be "raptured" or ascended, into heaven...
If extremists like Pompeo and Pence want Trump to create chaos in the Middle East in order to quicken the Rapture, they ought to just say so and let swing state voters this year decide if that's America's best path forward.
https://news.sky.com/story/trumps-reckless-middle-east-rampage-makes-mad-bushs-rush-to-war-look-thoughtful-11906088
Australia: Indigenous peoples' rightful role as guardians and caretakers
These contradictory lies have necessitated a phenomenal amount of cognitive dissonance within the population in order for them to feel that patriotic pride that usually comes out so strongly in the form of flags, flag capes, flag thongs and alcoholism...
... Australia is home to the oldest living cultures on Earth – cultures that understood the health of the land, the water, the animals and the people are one and the same. We cannot take Australia back to its pre-invasion state, but we can move forward into the future embracing these same principles, and returning Indigenous people to our rightful role as guardians and caretakers...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/10/australia-is-built-on-lies-so-why-would-we-be-surprised-about-lies-about-climate-change
Pedro Snchez voted back in as Spanish prime minister by Congress
... As expected, the leader of the Socialist Party (PSOE) won a simple majority of just two more “yes” than “no” votes. In the end, 167 deputies voted in favor (PSOE, Unidas Podemos, the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), Más País, Compromís, Nueva Canarias, Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG) and Teruel Existe); 165 against (Popular Party (PP), Vox, Ciudadanos (Citizens), Together for Catalonia, Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP), Navarra Suma, Coalición Canaria, Foro Asturias and the Regionalist Party of Catalonia (PRC)); and there were 18 abstentions: (Catalan Republican Left (ERC) and EH Bildu).
Sánchez will now head the first coalition government since the days of the Second Republic (1931-1939). Sources at La Moncloa, the seat of the Spanish government, said that he could be sworn in and appoint his Cabinet as early as Wednesday.
The new PSOE-Unidas Podemos administration is planning to introduce tax hikes for higher earners and large corporations, and to increase the minimum wage. But the coalition government falls short of an absolute majority in Congress, and will require bill-by-bill support in order to get legislation passed...
https://elpais.com/elpais/2020/01/07/inenglish/1578391109_970993.html
Hubo un lugar (Diego el Cigala)
Brucia La Terra - LUPA
People Get Ready (Joss Stone)
So Anglosphere and Commonwealth take priority over EU on trade
... As to this fabulous agreement, it will be "a new relationship based on free trade and friendly cooperation, not on the EU's treaties or EU law". Furthermore, "there will be no political alignment with the EU". It will "keep the UK out of the single market, out of any form of customs union, and end the role of the European Court of Justice".
Just so that there is no misunderstanding, the Manifesto goes on to list the attributes of this future relationship. It will, we are told, allow us to take back control of our laws and our money and control our own trade policy. We are also to have an Australian-style points-based immigration system. A new Conservative government would also raise standards in areas like workers' rights, animal welfare, agriculture and the environment. And it would ensure we are in full control of our fishing waters.
But then comes the key part. "We will negotiate a trade agreement next year", the Manifesto says, "one that will strengthen our Union". Crucially, it then tells us, in bold, "we will not extend the implementation period beyond December 2020"... The thing is that there are no "new post-Brexit freedoms" that come to us on 31 January, the date Brexit is supposed to be "done". We move immediately to the transition period where we are still bound by the full range of the EU treaties, the only difference being that we no longer have any representation in the Commission, the Council or the European Parliament... The thing is, though, that we know that a trade deal is possible by the end of December 2020, as long as Johnson elects for a "quick and dirty" agreement. And there is nothing in the Manifesto which precludes him taking that line. The word "comprehensive" attached to the trade agreement does not appear anywhere...
... Here, we have an interesting conundrum as the Manifesto pledges that the new government will aim to have 80 percent of UK trade covered by free trade agreements within the next three years, starting with the USA, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. These deals are supposed to be negotiated in parallel with the EU deal... But the very fact that a deal with the US, for instance, could only be concluded once Brussels had been squared, might actually incentivise Johnson to get the EU out of the way as quickly as possible, regardless of short-term problems... What we could be looking at, therefore, is a major sea-change in trade policy, breaking away from Euro-centric deals in favour of the Anglosphere and the Commonwealth. And as long as Johnson sees no great harm in weathering a few years of lean times while he settles his new trade policy, there is every reason why he should aim for concluding negotiations with the EU by the end of December 2020...
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87436
Brexit Brokenomics: The Economic Consequences
... In the short term we could be looking at a substantial increase in unemployment (though from a very low level now), depressed wages and lower investment. Much of the “pent-up” investment supposedly waiting to “unleash Britain’s potential” would be cancelled. Key sectors that rely on EU markets and European Union supply chains would suffer most grievously – cars, aerospace, pharmaceuticals, agriculture and the City and financial services.
Geographically, places such as the northeast and West Midlands that depend on manufacturing (and in which many districts voted Leave) would be hardest hit. Northern Ireland (which voted Remain) may find it derives some advantages from its anomalous position of staying in aspects of the EU customs union or single market. Overall, the continuing contraction in business investment is especially problematic, because it implies slower productivity growth for the future, which in turn means lower economic growth, wages and the funds to pay for (expensive) improvement in public services such as social care...
... The usual adjustment mechanism for an open economy in such a situation is via the exchange rate – the value of the pound against other currencies. Remember, too, that the UK is even now running a large trade deficit at about 6 per cent of GDP. Another sharp depreciation of sterling seems inevitable, to make UK exports more competitive. However, that will mean higher prices for imported goods and, possibly, higher wage claims (and higher minimum wages) and the sparking of an inflationary spiral – how the Bank of England reacts to these trends will be crucial. If they decide to ramp up interest rates to choke off inflation that will, in turn, hit the housing market, property values, investment and consumer spending...
... The few winners under such a set of circumstances would include those individuals and companies who derive much of their income or own assets denominated in foreign currencies, and those who are most able to reform their operations to make them globally competitive in a hostile trading environment...
How to compete in a hostile environment? By behaving very badly yourself.
Turkey is broadcasting its version live here:
Eg:
https://www.trtworld.com/
... They argue that only a small minority of Kurds are PKK or YPG members, and that in the 30km deep border zone they are to occupy and secure Syrian Arabs are the great majority.
Some of the landscape under discussion is being filmed from the Turkish side of the border here:
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Gender: Do not displayHometown: Canary Islands Archipelago
Home country: Spain
Member since: Wed Apr 19, 2006, 01:59 PM
Number of posts: 16,881
