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Honeycombe8's Journal
Honeycombe8's Journal
July 1, 2019

I finally settled on someone to support.

I always said I'd wait until the debates to decide on someone. So I have. I've finally settled on supporting who I think is the best candidate - Mayor Pete. I know he's not likely to win the nomination. But there's no one else I feel I can support at this time. IMO, he's the best. I've consistently liked him from the beginning, and my admiration has only grown over time.

If he doesn't make it, he'll be dropping out. Then I'll have to decide again who to support. But for the time being, I'm going with the one I like for so many reasons.

(My second choice is Klobuchar, another dark horse.)

This is unusual for me. I usu. settle on someone who turns out to be the frontrunner. But this time there is no Pied Piper, no automatic (for me) candidate with everything...experience, charisma, intelligence, articulate, good sense of humor, fast on his feet. Pete has all these things except the great sense of humor. He's pleasant and sometimes humorous, but not the sense of humor of Obama or Bill Clinton. It could be because this big campaign is so new to him. Anyway, for me it's Pete. Phew. I finally decided!

June 29, 2019

Gambling odds after the debates (hint: Harris did well at the debate)

The latest betting odds. Good news for Harris & Warren. Bad news for Biden and Sanders (although Biden is still in 1st or 2nd place). Buttigieg is holding his own, steady as a rock. Beto is off the radar totally.

The bad news is that Trump is still favored to win the GE, but I'd expect this to change once the Democratic nominee is chosen, and the Democratic focus is on Trump.

Going into the debate, Harris was at-best fourth favorite with most oddsmakers, trailing Biden as well as Senator Bernie Sanders, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and, in some cases, Senator Elizabeth Warren.

After her standout showing Thursday, though, Harris has moved into second place in the betting with many firms. The former California attorney general, who gained national attention for her pointed questions to President Donald Trump's nominees, now has odds of 5/2, according to Bet Online. That puts her into the position of favorite for the nomination.

Biden, meanwhile, following his struggles to defend his record on race, slipped to odds of 13/4.

It was a similar story on the political prediction stock market Predict It. Harris' price on the site soared from 12 cents and fourth place up to 20 cents and a share of first place with Biden and Warren.

In terms of odds to win the presidency overall, Harris is now the second favorite, according to Bet Online, at 5/1. Donald Trump is the clear favorite, a product of him being the incumbent and being almost certain to garner the Republican nomination.


Who will win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination?

Kamala Harris...............22c
Joe Biden.....................22c
Elizabeth Warren...........20c
Pete Buttigieg...............14c
Bernie Sanders.............14c


Odds To Win The 2020 United States Presidential Election
Name................................. Odds
Donald Trump.................... EVEN
Joe Biden.......................... +450
Elizabeth Warren................ +750
Kamala Harris.................... +750
Pete Buttigieg................... +850
Bernie Sanders................... +1000


Candidate 2020 Democratic Party Presidential Nomination Odds at BetOnline
Kamala Harris.............. +250
Joe Biden.................. +325
Elizabeth Warren......... +450
Pete Buttigieg............. +650
Bernie Sanders........... +800


June 28, 2019

Swalwell's point when he quoted Biden's 1980-something "pass the torch" statement...

That was excellent. That was a younger Biden saying the older politicians should pass the torch to the younger ones. Swalwell said Biden was right then, and that it's time now, like it was then, to pass the torch to the younger generation.

June 28, 2019

It's not fair.

How is it that Kamala Harris is good at debating, smart...AND beautiful, too? Not fair!

June 27, 2019

538: What Went Down on Night One of the Democratic Debates


That’s A Wrap

OK, folks, that’s it. What a night! If you missed it and want to relive all the glory chronologically, just start at the bottom of this live blog and scroll up. If you’re not inclined to do that, though, I’ve got two options for you. First, check back here tomorrow — we’re partnering with Morning Consult to measure how the debates change voters’ views of the race. Second, I asked the live blog team to sum up the night’s events in a newspapery headline. Here’s what they came up with:

Nate: “In Debate, Democrats Exchange Barbs and Ideas”

Julia: “Democrats Run Against Corporations, Trump, and Mitch McConnell”

Nathaniel: “10 Democrats Try To Cram Six Hours Of Talking Points Into Two”

Amelia: “Whatever Beto Was Born To Be In, It Wasn’t This Debate”

Meredith: “Wednesday’s Debate: No Stand Outs, But No Stumbles”

Geoffrey: “Democrats Get Substantive — And A Little Feisty In The First Debate”

Chad: “Hard To Chip Away At Biden’s Lead Without Him On Stage”

Seth: “No Knockouts But Lots Of Policy In Largely Civil, Substantive Debate”

Maggie: “Political Candidates Still Failing To Check Google Scholar Before Making Statements About How We Need To ‘Figure Out’ What To Do About A Problem”

Laura: “Lots Of Policy Agreement — And Not A Lot Of Trump — In The First Debate”

Dan: “Democratic Debate Night One: Heavy On Substance, Light On Trump”

Meena: “No One Mentioned Biden. Only 496 Days Until Election Day.”

June 25, 2019

The state of the immigrant children, and the state of the Republican Party

As I listened to more descriptions of the state of the children of immigrants being kept by this administration, how they are being treated, I got more and more horrified and disgusted. Who would treat children, any children, this way? No showers for weeks. No toothbrushes or toothpaste. No change of dirty clothes covered in dirt and in some cases urine and feces. We don't treat people this way in this country, especially children. And yet, one political party not only does treat people this way, the others who don't do it stand in silence, supporting it.

Some don't criticize it, but try to place blame on the Democratic Party for not giving them more "humanitarian" money. That argument is Twilight Zone unbelievable, considering they have a generous budget. And when it's important enough, they will do a GoFundMe, like they did for The Wall. How ludicrous in the face of reports that we have paid over $100 Million to the Trump organization for 2 1/2 years of golfing and other trips to Trump properties. Over $100 Million, most of which went into Trump's pocket. $100 Million would buy a lot of water, a lot of toothbrushes.

This one thing alone, even if there were nothing else, goes to prove that the Republican Party has changed dramatically and at a deep level from decades ago. It shows that this Republican Party is not one that can be "united" with the rest of the citizens, cannot be "worked with" like a normal political party. I don't believe that if they lose the 2020 election, they will collectively have an epiphany and become the kind of people who wouldn't allow this sort of treatment of children to occur. They will not wake up from the foggy nightmare and become Americans who are better than that. When someone has reached this level of inhumane treatment of children, something horrendous at a deep level has occurred. They have crossed a line.

This is different from arguments over policy positions years ago. Anyone who thinks this is the normal Republican Party who has just made a few bad decisions because of Trump, and that they will wake up and revert to normality, is either not living in reality or is unaware of what's been going on.

Sorry for the vanity post, but I am so horrified over the reports of the state of the immigrant children, and so horrified that Americans are not only doing it, but went to Court to argue that it's not necessary to provide toothbrushes and shower water to children, that I just wanted to make the statement. There is no doubt in my mind that if Trump were re-elected, things like this would continue, and worse. There is no doubt in my mind that if in the future they were lead to do worse things by another authoritarian figure, they would. Once you cross certain lines, there's no going back, no turning back the clock.

June 20, 2019

Here's Biden's Eulogy @ Strom Thurmond's funeral. It's not that long. Judge for yourself.

Instead of talking around the subject of him giving a eulogy and (some say) "praising" a segregationist, here it is, in all its glory. The Biden eulogy at Stom Thurmond's funeral:

Fritz (looking directly at Senator Ernest "Fritz" Hollings), he was one complex guy. For what else would explain that he asked, I’m told by Nancy, a guy named Biden from the state of Delaware to be one of his eulogists? I’ll never figure him out.

And, Strom, I won’t forgive it.

Lindsey, I always thought I was in control, but I knew down deep I wasn’t, and I think this is his last laugh. For what else could explain a Northeast liberal’s presence here as the only outsider speaking today? With the possible exception of Vice President Cheney.

Strom Thurmond was the only man whom I knew who in a literal sense lived in three distinct and separate periods of American history, and lived what would have been considered a full life in each of those periods, particularly in his beloved South. Born into an era of essentially unchallenged and unexamined mores of the South, reaching his full maturity in a era of fully challenged and critically exam[in]ed bankrupt mores of his beloved South, and living out his final three decades in a South that had formally rejected its past on race. In each of these stages, in my observation -- and I was only with him the last three decades -- Strom represented exactly where he came from.

There's an old hymn that includes these lyrics:

Once to every man and nation comes the moment to decide,
In the strife of Truth with Falsehood, for the good or evil side;
...Then it is the brave man chooses while the coward stands aside....1

No one ever doubted Strom Thurmond’s physical courage. You’ve heard much written about it. Not 15 years ago I was reminded of this. I was coming across to vote in the Senate and going up the escalator, and a fellow who apparently had held a longtime grudge against Senator Thurmond, a tourist, literally interposed himself between me and Strom and then said -- and Thad may remember this -- and said, "If you weren’t so old, I would knock you" -- and, Reverend, I will not say what he said -- "I will knock you down." And I immediately stood between them. And Strom literally took off his coat and said, "Hold my coat, Joe." (Swear to God.) And I looked at him and said, "No, no, no, no, no, no." And with that, he went down and did 25 pushups. He had to be 88, 87. He stood up and looked at the man -- he said, "If you weren’t so young I’d knock you down."......(cont'd at link)

cont'd at link:
June 15, 2019

PBS: Shields & Brooks on Trump & foreign campaign help, the Dem Debates

Trump hasn't changed, which is obvious in his stance toward "help" from Russia. He acts like a real estate guy...if someone calls to give me an advantage, of course I'm gonna take it! He doesn't see things through the eyes of someone who should be concerned about the country, security, democracy. And no, he wouldn't call the FBI...he's no snitch! Why would I call the FBI?

McConnell is the one person, of everyone, who is stopping reforms to protect the election against Russia. He's been a rock for Trump.

Dem debates: Warren's placement is bad for her, since most of the front runner are on night two, so more people will watch that one. Two nights, two hours each. Candidates will try to shine for themselves, rather than go against each other.

First night: Booker, Castro, DeBlasio, Delaney, Gabbard, Inslee, Klobuchar, O'Rourke, Ryan, Warren.

Second night: Bennet, Biden, Buttegieg, Gillibrand, Harris, Hickenlooper, Sanders, Swalwell, Williamson, Yang.

June 13, 2019

Question: Which candidate is strongest on protecting Social Security & Medicare?

I'm thinking it's probably Warren?

Anyone know?

Social Security is so important as a social program and has been one of the most successful programs in the U.S. It is a big reason why seniors living in poverty decreased from over 60% to less than 20%. Investment companies have lobbyists pushing hard for privatizing it, calling it any number of other things. The latest thing is taking part of Social Security and putting it in 401K accounts for people. That's neither social nor secure. That's just privatizing part of SS and giving a chunk of it in fees to investment companies.

We all know the Godsend that Medicare has been for seniors in this country, the only one of the First World countries that doesn't provide health care to all of its citizens.

These programs aren't for "deadbeats." Workers pay into these programs for decades, usually, to get these benefits, at a time of life where people often don't have the option of working to replace these benefits.

I want to see a candidate who stands firm against the lobbyists and Republicans to protect Social Security and Medicare.

June 11, 2019

Republicans will try to look normal after losing in 2020.

They will walk among us, trying to look normal. But don't be fooled. In the end, they will revert to their true selves. (2 min. clip)

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