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Amimnoch

Profile Information

Gender: Male
Hometown: Breaux Bridge, Louisiana
Home country: United States
Current location: Houston, TX
Member since: Tue Jul 3, 2007, 06:34 AM
Number of posts: 4,544

Journal Archives

My pre-Iowa prediction.. it will be candidate Sanders, but President Trump.

Yeah yeah yeah, I know, but it's a prediction only. One that I'll bookmark, and look back on later in the hope that I can look back and laugh at how wrong I was.

I do think Bernie is going to be a front runner coming out of the early states. A pretty strong one.

Super Tuesday would have been Bidens chance to come back strong, but while the field of candidates that have been running (including Biden) have been focusing on those early states, Bloomberg has been focusing almost 100% on the Super Tuesday states.

Bloomberg is not going to detract from Bernies Support base, he will detract from Biden's.

The exception I see is if Warren stays in, Buttigieg and Klobuchar drop out well before Super Tuesday.

If the primary prediction is right, then a candidate Sanders will lose the GE. Of the swing states that will decide, I see Michigan and Wisconsin being very within his taking, but Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Arizona are most likely going to end up going to Trump again. I also think there's a good chance that the Democratic Party leaning state of Virginia could very well swing Trump, and the 2x Republican leaning potential swing states of North Carolina and Georgia are off the table.

So.. who lied?

So, she says he said it. He says he didnít. has to be one or the other, itís binary.. one lied.

Personally, Iíd believe Senator Warren over him any day.

State of the Battleground - December edition

Well, with the exception of Pennsylvania, ALL of our frontrunners are continuing to lose ground as the attacks on each other, instead of Trump ramps up. Biden overall still shows the strongest (and so remains in my signature), but do note, many of those light blues are BARELY there now. This is also the very first time any of our frontrunners maps show a loss vs Trump.

September edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287282316

October edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287299279

November edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287334724

Highlights: 4 new polls since the last update with updates in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and Wisconsin. All 3 of our frontrunners have gained ground in Pennsylvania when matched vs Trump, but have suffered losses in Michigan, Arizona, and Wisconsin. These issues attacks on each other are having effect.

States in bold have updated results:
Florida - 29 electoral votes - No new poll since the November report.
https://www.unf.edu/uploadedFiles/aa/coas/porl/FLStatewideNationalPollwCross.pdf
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/FL110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: UNF +5 win, NYT +2 win.
Warren: UNF +3 win, NYT -4 loss.
Sanders: no UNF, NYT -1 loss.

Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - New Morning Call Poll. MOE is 6.
https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/academics/polisci/PA_Pres_Nov_2019__Report_%20(1).pdf
Biden: +9 win, up from +3 win in November NY Times/Siena poll Net gain of 6 points.
Warren: +5 win, up from -1 loss in November NY Times/Siena poll - Net gain of 6 points.
Sanders: +5 win, up from +1 win in November NY Times/Siena poll - net gain of 4 points.

Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Emerson from early October (was used in last months figures) - MoE 3.2
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/ohio-2020-statistical-dead-heat-with-biden-sanders-and-warren-in-democratic-primary
Biden: +6 win - same poll used in October report.
Warren: +4 win - same poll used in October report
Sanders: +6 win - same poll used in October report

Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - new NY Times/Siena poll - MOE 5.1
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/MI110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: +1 win, down from +12 win in the October Emerson poll - net loss of 11 points.
Warren: -5 loss, down from +8 win in the October Emerson poll - net loss of 13 points.
Sanders: +4 win, down from +12 win in the October Emerson poll - net loss of 8 points.

Arizona - 11 electoral votes - New OH Predictive Insights poll. MOE 3.9
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6rhlttfgxw5gk95/Presidental%20Report.pdf
Biden: -2 loss, down 2 points from the October Emerson report.
Warren: -6 loss, down 6 points from the October Emerson report.
Sanders: -13 loss, down 11 points from the October Emerson report.

Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - New Marquette poll. MOE is 4.1.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/WI110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: +1 win, down 3 points from the October NY Times/Siena poll.
Warren: -1 loss, down 1 point from the October NY Times/Siena poll.
Sanders: -2 loss, down 4 points from the October NY Times/Siena poll.

Based on these polls, these maps are how the election would look if the polls were election reality. As before, ties remain battleground color, win/loss within the MOE are colored light red/blue as "leans", and a win or loss outside the MOE is dark red/blue.

Joe Biden Map


Elizabeth Warren Map


Bernie Sanders Map

Today, you are paying hundreds of thousands to Mar-A-Lago resort.

Thatís right, YOUR tax dollars are, yet again, paying for Trump, his family, and his host of security to stay at one of his own resorts in Florida, relaxing and living it up on your tax dollars.. which.. in and of itself isnít unusual.. after all.. ALL presidents take down time, especially during the holidays.

What is NOT normal here is all that money, spent by us, is going right back into his and his familyís pockets!!!

Emoluments clause please!!!

Just wanted to take a moment to remind everyone while our dumb asses are arguing over fucking bottles of wine in a fund raising event by Pete, or some wine event by Senator Warren a couple of years ago, or BSís campaign buying up some books to sign and hand out to supporters..

FFS, how about we focus on the grifting, constitution breaking, democracy destroying fascist?? Maybe? Bloombergís looking better and better.. at least he has the right target identified in his campaign.

Start the next impeachment NOW!!

The House Intel committee should take the letter from Trump, on official Whitehouse stationary, with his signature in immediately as his only, and official statement regarding the current investigation, and open another impeachment hearing.

You know that I had a totally innocent conversation with the President of Ukraine. I then had a second conversation that has been misquoted, mischaracterized, and fraudulently misrepresented. Fortunately, there was a transcript of the conversation taken, and you know from the transcript (which was immediately made available) that the paragraph in question was perfect. I said to President Zelensky: ďI would like you to do us a favor, though, because our country has been through a lot and Ukraine knows a lot about it.Ē I said do us a favor, not me, and our country, not a campaign. I then mentioned the Attorney General of the United States. Every time I talk with a foreign leader, I put Americaís interests first, just as I did with President Zelensky


Treat this document as his official statement on the first impeachment, and between this statement and the official documents that were provided, we should go after false testimony.

You know full well that Vice President Biden used his office and $1 billion dollars of U.S. aid money to coerce Ukraine into firing the prosecutor who was digging into the company paying his son millions of dollars. You know this because Biden bragged about it on video. Biden openly stated: ďI said, ĎIím telling you, youíre not getting the billion dollarsíÖI looked at them and said: ĎIím leaving in six hours. If the prosecutor is not fired, youíre not getting the money.í Well, son of a bitch. He got fired.Ē Even Joe Biden admitted just days ago in an interview with NPR that it ďlooked bad.Ē Now you are trying to impeach me by falsely accusing me of doing what Joe Biden has admitted he actually did.


2nd verifiable and provable lie in his official statement.

And thatís just in the first few paragraphs, Iím certain someone with an actual legal background could find many others that a case could be based on in that long, rambling pile of shit.

Going Bloomberg.. for now.

From the beginning, my only focus has been on the key swing states that are needed to actually get to 270.

I don't give 2 shits about policy. I don't give 2 shits about history. I don't give 2 shits about the national (popular vote) polls. I don't care what California is polling at, or New York, or Alabama, or even where I live here in Texas (unless a candidate can really turn it into a winnable battleground like I thought Beto could early in the season).

He just announced, so there are no matchup's of Bloomberg in the battlegrounds yet, but as I have done with the other candidates, I will watch those most closely. I'm taking a leap of faith here. I think Bloomberg is just the kind of candidate that may really be able to take on Cheetolini in those states.

Right now, the single biggest concern I have about Bloomberg is that, if we get him a House and Senate majority, that no matter what, he will sign off on, not veto, any hard fought for legislation the party gets to his desk. This is the same major concern I have had about Bernie Sanders. All of the other candidates, not so much.

If the matchup polls don't show Bloomberg doing well in the battleground states like I think he will, I'll drop him like yesterdays left out potato salad.

Winning 2020 is all that matters. Popular vote doesn't do it, we've seen that already. 270. If Bloomberg, as I suspect, is the one that gives us the best showing in the battleground states like I suspect upcoming polls will show, I'm with him.

I'm especially interested to see how the next Texas matchup poll will go. Bloomberg may be able to do what Beto wasn't and get that reddish purple of my state into the bluish purple category.

State of the Battleground - November edition.

September edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287282316

October edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287299279

Highlights: 2 new polls in Florida during the month of October from UNF and NY Times/Siena. FINALLY a new poll in Pennsylvania (first update since May) from the NY Times/Siena. No new poll in Ohio. New Emerson poll in Ohio. 2 new Arizona polls, NY times and Emerson (Emerson most recent). And last, a new NY Times/Siena for Wisconsin. Overall, Florida and Michigan are looking better, but the rest of the states are losing ground. The total 270 maps are looking the worst they have since I started this tracking. Remember light blue is a win, but WITHIN the margin of error. If we don't want 4 more years of Trump, our candidates really need to stop going after congressional required issues, and start focusing on what they will be able to effect changes on as President to undo the damage Trump has done imo. These issues attacks on each other are having effect.

States in bold have updated results:
Florida - 29 electoral votes - 2 new polls UNF, and NY times/Siena in October. NYT is most recent, and used for the map. NOTE: The UNF poll did not have stats for Bernie. MOE for UNF is 3.8 and 4.4 for NYT.
https://www.unf.edu/uploadedFiles/aa/coas/porl/FLStatewideNationalPollwCross.pdf
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/FL110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: UNF +5 win, NYT +2 win. Gain of 3 points from the September FL Atlantic U poll.
Warren: UNF +3 win, NYT -4 loss. Loss of 4 points from the September FL Atlantic U poll.
Sanders: no UNF, NYT -1 loss. No change from the September FL Atlantic poll

Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - New NY Times/Siena. MOE is 4.4.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/PA110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: +3 win, down from the May Quinnipiac that had him winning by 11 points. VERY concerning.
Warren: -1 loss, down from +3 win in May Quinnipiac
Sanders: +1 win, down from +7 win in May Quinnipiac

Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Emerson from early October (was used in last months figures) - MoE 3.2
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/ohio-2020-statistical-dead-heat-with-biden-sanders-and-warren-in-democratic-primary
Biden: +6 win - same poll used in October report.
Warren: +4 win - same poll used in October report
Sanders: +6 win - same poll used in October report

Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - new Emerson October poll - MOE 3.0
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/michigan-2020-democrats-aim-to-take-back-the-state
Biden: +12 win, up 2 points from August EPIC-MRA
Warren: +8 win, up 2 points from August EPIC-MRA
Sanders: +12 win, up a whopping 8 points from August EPIC-MRA. Great gains on this one.

Arizona - 11 electoral votes - Another state that had 2 polls this week. Emmerson is the most recent, so using that one for the battleground maps below. MOE for Emerson is 3.2, and 4.4 for NYT/Siena.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/AZ110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/arizona-2020-toss-ups-in-presidential-and-senate-races
Biden: 0 points tie - down from +2 win from August OH Predictive insights.
Warren: 0 points tie - up from a -1 loss in the August OH Predictive insights.
Sanders: -2 loss - up from a -10 loss in the August OH Predictive insights.

Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - New NYT/Siena October poll. MOE is 4.4.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/WI110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: +4 win, down from +9 win from August Marquette poll
Warren: 0 tie, no change from the August Marquette poll
Sanders: +2 win, down from +4 win in the August Marquette poll

Based on these polls, these maps are how the election would look if the polls were election reality. As before, ties remain battleground color, win/loss within the MOE are colored light red/blue as "leans", and a win or loss outside the MOE is dark red/blue.

Joe Biden Map


Elizabeth Warren Map


Bernie Sanders Map

I LOVE my medical insurance!!!

I really do. My company provides for myself and my husband extremely well when it comes to the medical insurance they provide. With my primary care physician, the one that I really like going to, my office visit copay is $15. Urgent care visit? $25. ER visit $35. Neither of us ever have problems with our prescriptions, and very low copay on those as well.

That said, Iím still 100% behind either single payer enhanced ACA OR MFA, or any version of improvements to our healthcare system that we can put a CONGRESS into place to get for us.

Why? Because as good as mine is, I have family and friends that arenít so lucky. Because it still sickens me that so many donít have access to anything even close. Disgusts me that so many people go into bankruptcy.

Also, I am very aware that as good as mine is, I am only 1 kidney failure, or bad auto accident, or cancer, or heart failure, or liver/GI issue away from NOT having it. One firing or lay-off away. There is no guarantee or right to remain on the plan that i have or the job that I have.

And, even though I still think this is a ridiculous topic to have at all for POTUS candidates because itís a congress issue, I also think it only addresses a sliver of what needs to be addressed. WHEN we do get a congress that can pass improvements, and a POTUS that will sign off on whatever the congress we provided to them does get passed; it needs to be more than just healthcare insurance. It needs to be an infrastructure bill that increases the number of facilities around the country, number of clinics. It needs to be an education bill that helps us get MORE doctors, MORE nurses, MORE administrators, MORE technicians and phlebotomists. It needs to tackle medical research and pharmaceuticals.

Beto O'Rourke ends his presidential bid after campaign failed to take off

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/beto-o-rourke-ends-2020-campaign-says-he-ll-work-n1074811

DES MOINES, Iowa ó Former Rep. Beto O'Rourke dropped out of the 2020 presidential race Friday after a disappointing campaign that failed to build off the momentum generated from his longshot Texas Senate run.

"Though today we are suspending this campaign, let us each continue our commitment to the country in whatever capacity we can," he wrote in an email to supporters. "Though it is difficult to accept, it is clear to me now that this campaign does not have the means to move forward successfully."

Lagging in the polls and with fundraising, O'Rourke had yet to qualify for the Nov. 20 Democratic debate sponsored by MSNBC and The Washington Post.


Probably a good move at this point. Still a bit saddened, I had such high hopes early on for this candidate. Would have been a great thing for us to have had Texas as a strong battleground contender imo.

State of the Battleground - October edition.

1st and September edition here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287282316

Highlights: Only 2 new polls have come out in the battleground states since last months posting. Florida Atlantic University poll put out in the end of September, and an Emmerson poll covering Ohio. All 3 of our frontrunners have lost ground and are now in near tie ups when matched up against the Cheeto in Florida. In Ohio, Biden has slipped by 2 points while Warren and Sanders have both made gains of 5 points and 7 points respectively.

Below is the raw numbers from each of the most recent RCP polls that covers all 3 candidates available. Ones in Bold are the only changes with updated matchup polls.

Florida - 29 electoral votes - Florida Atlantic University - September 2019 (new poll) - MoE 3.1
https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2019/florida-poll-finds-trump-popular-in-the-sunshine-state-while-biden-dominates-democratic-field.php
Biden: -1 loss - Slipped from +9 win from the June Quinnipiac poll
Warren: 0 tie - slipped from +4 win from the June Quinnipiac poll
Sanders: -1 loss - slipped from +6 win from the June Quinnipiac poll


Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - Quinnipiac from May 2019 - MoE 4.2 no new poll
https://poll.qu.edu/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2620
Biden: +11 win
Warren: +3 win
Sanders: +7 win

Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Emerson from this past week - MoE 3.2
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/ohio-2020-statistical-dead-heat-with-biden-sanders-and-warren-in-democratic-primary
Biden: +6 win - slipped from +8 win from July Quinnipiac poll
Warren: +4 win - gained from -1 loss from July Quinnipiac poll
Sanders: +6 win - gained from -1 loss from July Quinnipiac poll


Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - EPIC-MRA August 2019 Moe 4.0
https://www.woodtv.com/news/elections/mi-poll-dems-top-trump-but-undecideds-could-tip-scale/
Biden: +10 win
Warren: +6 win
Sanders: +4 win

Arizona - 11 electoral votes - OH Predictive insights from August 2019 MoE 4.0
https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/poll-trumps-job-approval-decreases/
Biden: +2 win
Warren: -1 loss
Sanders: -10 loss

Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - Marquette from August 2019 MoE 3.9
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/MLSP53Toplines.pdf
Biden: +9 win
Warren: 0 tie
Sanders: +4 win

As before, here are what the maps would look like assuming these polls were election reality. Within the MoE remains battleground, within 2 points outside the MOE will indicate light blue/red indicating "leans", and >2 points outside the MoE will be solid Blue/Red.

Joe Biden Map


Elizabeth Warren Map


Bernie Sanders Map



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