"I'm going to beat Donald Trump like a drum." - Joe Biden

“Look, it’s simple,” he continued. “They’re smearing me to try to stop me, and they know if I’m the nominee, I’m going to beat Donald Trump like a drum.”
The Biden campaign has long hoped that, in the final days before the caucuses, Iowans will grow more intensely attuned to arguments about electability. In recent weeks, Mr. Biden’s own argument on that front has been squeezed, especially by Senator Amy Klobuchar, a moderate Minnesota Democrat, as well as by Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a democratic socialist who has gained traction in the race, as the Biden campaign has privately acknowledged to donors.
In the speech, his campaign said, Mr. Biden plans to remind voters that Mr. Trump must be defeated in order to make progress on issues like health care, gun violence, climate change and how America is viewed on the world stage. And he will speak about the nature of the country, as he has done on the campaign trail this week in Iowa, where he has repeatedly declared that “character is on the ballot.”

My pre-Iowa prediction.. it will be candidate Sanders, but President Trump.

Yeah yeah yeah, I know, but it's a prediction only. One that I'll bookmark, and look back on later in the hope that I can look back and laugh at how wrong I was.

I do think Bernie is going to be a front runner coming out of the early states. A pretty strong one.

Super Tuesday would have been Bidens chance to come back strong, but while the field of candidates that have been running (including Biden) have been focusing on those early states, Bloomberg has been focusing almost 100% on the Super Tuesday states.

Bloomberg is not going to detract from Bernies Support base, he will detract from Biden's.

The exception I see is if Warren stays in, Buttigieg and Klobuchar drop out well before Super Tuesday.

If the primary prediction is right, then a candidate Sanders will lose the GE. Of the swing states that will decide, I see Michigan and Wisconsin being very within his taking, but Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Arizona are most likely going to end up going to Trump again. I also think there's a good chance that the Democratic Party leaning state of Virginia could very well swing Trump, and the 2x Republican leaning potential swing states of North Carolina and Georgia are off the table.

So.. who lied?

So, she says he said it. He says he didn’t. has to be one or the other, it’s binary.. one lied.

Personally, I’d believe Senator Warren over him any day.

State of the Battleground - December edition

Well, with the exception of Pennsylvania, ALL of our frontrunners are continuing to lose ground as the attacks on each other, instead of Trump ramps up. Biden overall still shows the strongest (and so remains in my signature), but do note, many of those light blues are BARELY there now. This is also the very first time any of our frontrunners maps show a loss vs Trump.

September edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287282316

October edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287299279

November edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287334724

Highlights: 4 new polls since the last update with updates in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and Wisconsin. All 3 of our frontrunners have gained ground in Pennsylvania when matched vs Trump, but have suffered losses in Michigan, Arizona, and Wisconsin. These issues attacks on each other are having effect.

States in bold have updated results:
Florida - 29 electoral votes - No new poll since the November report.
https://www.unf.edu/uploadedFiles/aa/coas/porl/FLStatewideNationalPollwCross.pdf
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/FL110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: UNF +5 win, NYT +2 win.
Warren: UNF +3 win, NYT -4 loss.
Sanders: no UNF, NYT -1 loss.

Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - New Morning Call Poll. MOE is 6.
https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/academics/polisci/PA_Pres_Nov_2019__Report_%20(1).pdf
Biden: +9 win, up from +3 win in November NY Times/Siena poll Net gain of 6 points.
Warren: +5 win, up from -1 loss in November NY Times/Siena poll - Net gain of 6 points.
Sanders: +5 win, up from +1 win in November NY Times/Siena poll - net gain of 4 points.

Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Emerson from early October (was used in last months figures) - MoE 3.2
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/ohio-2020-statistical-dead-heat-with-biden-sanders-and-warren-in-democratic-primary
Biden: +6 win - same poll used in October report.
Warren: +4 win - same poll used in October report
Sanders: +6 win - same poll used in October report

Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - new NY Times/Siena poll - MOE 5.1
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/MI110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: +1 win, down from +12 win in the October Emerson poll - net loss of 11 points.
Warren: -5 loss, down from +8 win in the October Emerson poll - net loss of 13 points.
Sanders: +4 win, down from +12 win in the October Emerson poll - net loss of 8 points.

Arizona - 11 electoral votes - New OH Predictive Insights poll. MOE 3.9
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6rhlttfgxw5gk95/Presidental%20Report.pdf
Biden: -2 loss, down 2 points from the October Emerson report.
Warren: -6 loss, down 6 points from the October Emerson report.
Sanders: -13 loss, down 11 points from the October Emerson report.

Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - New Marquette poll. MOE is 4.1.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/WI110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: +1 win, down 3 points from the October NY Times/Siena poll.
Warren: -1 loss, down 1 point from the October NY Times/Siena poll.
Sanders: -2 loss, down 4 points from the October NY Times/Siena poll.

Based on these polls, these maps are how the election would look if the polls were election reality. As before, ties remain battleground color, win/loss within the MOE are colored light red/blue as "leans", and a win or loss outside the MOE is dark red/blue.

Joe Biden Map


Elizabeth Warren Map


Bernie Sanders Map

Today, you are paying hundreds of thousands to Mar-A-Lago resort.

That’s right, YOUR tax dollars are, yet again, paying for Trump, his family, and his host of security to stay at one of his own resorts in Florida, relaxing and living it up on your tax dollars.. which.. in and of itself isn’t unusual.. after all.. ALL presidents take down time, especially during the holidays.

What is NOT normal here is all that money, spent by us, is going right back into his and his family’s pockets!!!

Emoluments clause please!!!

Just wanted to take a moment to remind everyone while our dumb asses are arguing over fucking bottles of wine in a fund raising event by Pete, or some wine event by Senator Warren a couple of years ago, or BS’s campaign buying up some books to sign and hand out to supporters..

FFS, how about we focus on the grifting, constitution breaking, democracy destroying fascist?? Maybe? Bloomberg’s looking better and better.. at least he has the right target identified in his campaign.

Start the next impeachment NOW!!

The House Intel committee should take the letter from Trump, on official Whitehouse stationary, with his signature in immediately as his only, and official statement regarding the current investigation, and open another impeachment hearing.

Going Bloomberg.. for now.

From the beginning, my only focus has been on the key swing states that are needed to actually get to 270.

I don't give 2 shits about policy. I don't give 2 shits about history. I don't give 2 shits about the national (popular vote) polls. I don't care what California is polling at, or New York, or Alabama, or even where I live here in Texas (unless a candidate can really turn it into a winnable battleground like I thought Beto could early in the season).

He just announced, so there are no matchup's of Bloomberg in the battlegrounds yet, but as I have done with the other candidates, I will watch those most closely. I'm taking a leap of faith here. I think Bloomberg is just the kind of candidate that may really be able to take on Cheetolini in those states.

Right now, the single biggest concern I have about Bloomberg is that, if we get him a House and Senate majority, that no matter what, he will sign off on, not veto, any hard fought for legislation the party gets to his desk. This is the same major concern I have had about Bernie Sanders. All of the other candidates, not so much.

If the matchup polls don't show Bloomberg doing well in the battleground states like I think he will, I'll drop him like yesterdays left out potato salad.

Winning 2020 is all that matters. Popular vote doesn't do it, we've seen that already. 270. If Bloomberg, as I suspect, is the one that gives us the best showing in the battleground states like I suspect upcoming polls will show, I'm with him.

I'm especially interested to see how the next Texas matchup poll will go. Bloomberg may be able to do what Beto wasn't and get that reddish purple of my state into the bluish purple category.

State of the Battleground - November edition.

September edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287282316

October edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287299279

Highlights: 2 new polls in Florida during the month of October from UNF and NY Times/Siena. FINALLY a new poll in Pennsylvania (first update since May) from the NY Times/Siena. No new poll in Ohio. New Emerson poll in Ohio. 2 new Arizona polls, NY times and Emerson (Emerson most recent). And last, a new NY Times/Siena for Wisconsin. Overall, Florida and Michigan are looking better, but the rest of the states are losing ground. The total 270 maps are looking the worst they have since I started this tracking. Remember light blue is a win, but WITHIN the margin of error. If we don't want 4 more years of Trump, our candidates really need to stop going after congressional required issues, and start focusing on what they will be able to effect changes on as President to undo the damage Trump has done imo. These issues attacks on each other are having effect.

States in bold have updated results:
Florida - 29 electoral votes - 2 new polls UNF, and NY times/Siena in October. NYT is most recent, and used for the map. NOTE: The UNF poll did not have stats for Bernie. MOE for UNF is 3.8 and 4.4 for NYT.
https://www.unf.edu/uploadedFiles/aa/coas/porl/FLStatewideNationalPollwCross.pdf
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/FL110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: UNF +5 win, NYT +2 win. Gain of 3 points from the September FL Atlantic U poll.
Warren: UNF +3 win, NYT -4 loss. Loss of 4 points from the September FL Atlantic U poll.
Sanders: no UNF, NYT -1 loss. No change from the September FL Atlantic poll

Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - New NY Times/Siena. MOE is 4.4.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/PA110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: +3 win, down from the May Quinnipiac that had him winning by 11 points. VERY concerning.
Warren: -1 loss, down from +3 win in May Quinnipiac
Sanders: +1 win, down from +7 win in May Quinnipiac

Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Emerson from early October (was used in last months figures) - MoE 3.2
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/ohio-2020-statistical-dead-heat-with-biden-sanders-and-warren-in-democratic-primary
Biden: +6 win - same poll used in October report.
Warren: +4 win - same poll used in October report
Sanders: +6 win - same poll used in October report

Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - new Emerson October poll - MOE 3.0
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/michigan-2020-democrats-aim-to-take-back-the-state
Biden: +12 win, up 2 points from August EPIC-MRA
Warren: +8 win, up 2 points from August EPIC-MRA
Sanders: +12 win, up a whopping 8 points from August EPIC-MRA. Great gains on this one.

Arizona - 11 electoral votes - Another state that had 2 polls this week. Emmerson is the most recent, so using that one for the battleground maps below. MOE for Emerson is 3.2, and 4.4 for NYT/Siena.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/AZ110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/arizona-2020-toss-ups-in-presidential-and-senate-races
Biden: 0 points tie - down from +2 win from August OH Predictive insights.
Warren: 0 points tie - up from a -1 loss in the August OH Predictive insights.
Sanders: -2 loss - up from a -10 loss in the August OH Predictive insights.

Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - New NYT/Siena October poll. MOE is 4.4.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/WI110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: +4 win, down from +9 win from August Marquette poll
Warren: 0 tie, no change from the August Marquette poll
Sanders: +2 win, down from +4 win in the August Marquette poll

Based on these polls, these maps are how the election would look if the polls were election reality. As before, ties remain battleground color, win/loss within the MOE are colored light red/blue as "leans", and a win or loss outside the MOE is dark red/blue.

Joe Biden Map


Elizabeth Warren Map


Bernie Sanders Map

I LOVE my medical insurance!!!

I really do. My company provides for myself and my husband extremely well when it comes to the medical insurance they provide. With my primary care physician, the one that I really like going to, my office visit copay is $15. Urgent care visit? $25. ER visit $35. Neither of us ever have problems with our prescriptions, and very low copay on those as well.

That said, I’m still 100% behind either single payer enhanced ACA OR MFA, or any version of improvements to our healthcare system that we can put a CONGRESS into place to get for us.

Why? Because as good as mine is, I have family and friends that aren’t so lucky. Because it still sickens me that so many don’t have access to anything even close. Disgusts me that so many people go into bankruptcy.

Also, I am very aware that as good as mine is, I am only 1 kidney failure, or bad auto accident, or cancer, or heart failure, or liver/GI issue away from NOT having it. One firing or lay-off away. There is no guarantee or right to remain on the plan that i have or the job that I have.

And, even though I still think this is a ridiculous topic to have at all for POTUS candidates because it’s a congress issue, I also think it only addresses a sliver of what needs to be addressed. WHEN we do get a congress that can pass improvements, and a POTUS that will sign off on whatever the congress we provided to them does get passed; it needs to be more than just healthcare insurance. It needs to be an infrastructure bill that increases the number of facilities around the country, number of clinics. It needs to be an education bill that helps us get MORE doctors, MORE nurses, MORE administrators, MORE technicians and phlebotomists. It needs to tackle medical research and pharmaceuticals.

Beto O'Rourke ends his presidential bid after campaign failed to take off