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Amimnoch

Profile Information

Gender: Male
Hometown: Breaux Bridge, Louisiana
Home country: United States
Current location: Houston, TX
Member since: Tue Jul 3, 2007, 07:34 AM
Number of posts: 4,558

Journal Archives

State of the Battleground - December edition

Well, with the exception of Pennsylvania, ALL of our frontrunners are continuing to lose ground as the attacks on each other, instead of Trump ramps up. Biden overall still shows the strongest (and so remains in my signature), but do note, many of those light blues are BARELY there now. This is also the very first time any of our frontrunners maps show a loss vs Trump.

September edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287282316

October edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287299279

November edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287334724

Highlights: 4 new polls since the last update with updates in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and Wisconsin. All 3 of our frontrunners have gained ground in Pennsylvania when matched vs Trump, but have suffered losses in Michigan, Arizona, and Wisconsin. These issues attacks on each other are having effect.

States in bold have updated results:
Florida - 29 electoral votes - No new poll since the November report.
https://www.unf.edu/uploadedFiles/aa/coas/porl/FLStatewideNationalPollwCross.pdf
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/FL110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: UNF +5 win, NYT +2 win.
Warren: UNF +3 win, NYT -4 loss.
Sanders: no UNF, NYT -1 loss.

Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - New Morning Call Poll. MOE is 6.
https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/academics/polisci/PA_Pres_Nov_2019__Report_%20(1).pdf
Biden: +9 win, up from +3 win in November NY Times/Siena poll Net gain of 6 points.
Warren: +5 win, up from -1 loss in November NY Times/Siena poll - Net gain of 6 points.
Sanders: +5 win, up from +1 win in November NY Times/Siena poll - net gain of 4 points.

Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Emerson from early October (was used in last months figures) - MoE 3.2
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/ohio-2020-statistical-dead-heat-with-biden-sanders-and-warren-in-democratic-primary
Biden: +6 win - same poll used in October report.
Warren: +4 win - same poll used in October report
Sanders: +6 win - same poll used in October report

Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - new NY Times/Siena poll - MOE 5.1
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/MI110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: +1 win, down from +12 win in the October Emerson poll - net loss of 11 points.
Warren: -5 loss, down from +8 win in the October Emerson poll - net loss of 13 points.
Sanders: +4 win, down from +12 win in the October Emerson poll - net loss of 8 points.

Arizona - 11 electoral votes - New OH Predictive Insights poll. MOE 3.9
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6rhlttfgxw5gk95/Presidental%20Report.pdf
Biden: -2 loss, down 2 points from the October Emerson report.
Warren: -6 loss, down 6 points from the October Emerson report.
Sanders: -13 loss, down 11 points from the October Emerson report.

Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - New Marquette poll. MOE is 4.1.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/WI110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: +1 win, down 3 points from the October NY Times/Siena poll.
Warren: -1 loss, down 1 point from the October NY Times/Siena poll.
Sanders: -2 loss, down 4 points from the October NY Times/Siena poll.

Based on these polls, these maps are how the election would look if the polls were election reality. As before, ties remain battleground color, win/loss within the MOE are colored light red/blue as "leans", and a win or loss outside the MOE is dark red/blue.

Joe Biden Map


Elizabeth Warren Map


Bernie Sanders Map

Today, you are paying hundreds of thousands to Mar-A-Lago resort.

That’s right, YOUR tax dollars are, yet again, paying for Trump, his family, and his host of security to stay at one of his own resorts in Florida, relaxing and living it up on your tax dollars.. which.. in and of itself isn’t unusual.. after all.. ALL presidents take down time, especially during the holidays.

What is NOT normal here is all that money, spent by us, is going right back into his and his family’s pockets!!!

Emoluments clause please!!!

Just wanted to take a moment to remind everyone while our dumb asses are arguing over fucking bottles of wine in a fund raising event by Pete, or some wine event by Senator Warren a couple of years ago, or BS’s campaign buying up some books to sign and hand out to supporters..

FFS, how about we focus on the grifting, constitution breaking, democracy destroying fascist?? Maybe? Bloomberg’s looking better and better.. at least he has the right target identified in his campaign.

Start the next impeachment NOW!!

The House Intel committee should take the letter from Trump, on official Whitehouse stationary, with his signature in immediately as his only, and official statement regarding the current investigation, and open another impeachment hearing.

You know that I had a totally innocent conversation with the President of Ukraine. I then had a second conversation that has been misquoted, mischaracterized, and fraudulently misrepresented. Fortunately, there was a transcript of the conversation taken, and you know from the transcript (which was immediately made available) that the paragraph in question was perfect. I said to President Zelensky: “I would like you to do us a favor, though, because our country has been through a lot and Ukraine knows a lot about it.” I said do us a favor, not me, and our country, not a campaign. I then mentioned the Attorney General of the United States. Every time I talk with a foreign leader, I put America’s interests first, just as I did with President Zelensky


Treat this document as his official statement on the first impeachment, and between this statement and the official documents that were provided, we should go after false testimony.

You know full well that Vice President Biden used his office and $1 billion dollars of U.S. aid money to coerce Ukraine into firing the prosecutor who was digging into the company paying his son millions of dollars. You know this because Biden bragged about it on video. Biden openly stated: “I said, ‘I’m telling you, you’re not getting the billion dollars’…I looked at them and said: ‘I’m leaving in six hours. If the prosecutor is not fired, you’re not getting the money.’ Well, son of a bitch. He got fired.” Even Joe Biden admitted just days ago in an interview with NPR that it “looked bad.” Now you are trying to impeach me by falsely accusing me of doing what Joe Biden has admitted he actually did.


2nd verifiable and provable lie in his official statement.

And that’s just in the first few paragraphs, I’m certain someone with an actual legal background could find many others that a case could be based on in that long, rambling pile of shit.

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