March 2, 2020

BREAKING: Pete Buttigieg is also planning to endorse Biden

Edit: Found a source! Not much to report yet.

https://whtc.com/news/articles/2020/mar/02/pete-buttigieg-plans-to-endorse-joe-biden-in-democratic-primary/990323/

February 25, 2020

Ugh, two more polls show Trump's approval rate going up. WTF?

Trump's approval rating jumped several points in two tracking polls, Politico/Morning Consult and Rasmussen. I know a lot of people don't consider Rasmussen a reliable pollster, but I still look at it for the trends. They are one of the few if not the only daily tracker now that Gallup stopped doing daily tracking.

Politico/Morning Consult 2/21 - 2/23 45% approve 52% disapprove
Politico/Morning Consult 2/23 - 2/23 42% approve 54% disapprove

Rasmussen Reports 2/19 - 2/23 49% approve 50% disapprove
Rasmussen Reports 2/20 - 2/24 52% approve 47% disapprove

Actually, after looking closer, it looks like Politico/MC did 2 different polls, one only on 2/23 and one from 2/21-2/23. The one only on 2/23 had a lower approval rating, but it was released first so it looked like his approval rating had jumped. Anyone know what the deal is with this poll? Both the one-day and three-day one were conducted online using similar sample sizes, and both with registered voters. Why do they have a one-day and a three-day covering the same period?

February 21, 2020

Here's how Bloomberg can help save us from defeat in November

Run negative, Republican-style attack ads against Bernie in swing states and Super Tuesday states now. Run ads in Florida of him praising Fidel Castro. Take the whole opposition research book that Republicans supposedly have on Bernie and put it all out there now. Run the ads we expect Trump to run in the fall if Bernie is the nominee. Simultaneously, commission tracking polls in swing states doing head-to-head matchups against Trump and see if they change in response to the ads.

If he does that, one of two things will happen. Either Bernie will tank as much as some people expect, both in the primaries and the head-to-head matchups against Trump, and someone believed to be more electable gets the nomination. Or the ads don't have much impact, in which case many Democrats will be more comfortable voting for Bernie, he wins the primaries and we avoid a contentious convention, and anything Trump might throw at him in November is old news already. Win-win as far as I am concerned.

Really, anyone could do this, but I think Bloomberg is in the best position to do so with his unlimited resources and amazing ad staff.

February 20, 2020

Breaking: New Florida head to head matchups

Sanders 48, Trump 48
Trump 49, Buttigieg 45
Biden 49, Trump 48
Bloomberg 50, Trump 44
Trump 47, Warren 47
Trump 48, Klobuchar 44

UNF poll of live voters, methodology seems decent except that they weight on party registration. According to another article I read this morning, this could make the poll a little bit more favorable for Democrats, which I don't like.

https://www.unf.edu/uploadedFiles/aa/coas/porl/Feb20.2020.pdf

I'm not too surprised that Bloomberg is doing better than the others in Florida, given the large influx of New Yorkers there. I am surprised that Bernie isn't doing worse, since Florida is the state I think the socialist label will hurt him the most because of the large Cuban population. I'm a little surprised Biden isn't doing a bit better there.

In these head to head match-ups, I think the most important thing is not the Democrat's number but Trump's number, because Democrats that are less well-known nationally are going to have lower numbers because more people will be undecided until they get to know them. By that metric, it seems Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar are doing better than Sanders, Warren and Biden, which is interesting.

February 16, 2020

My recent interactions with real life "Bernie people"

As some of you know, I supported Bernie in 2016 but am not supporting him in the primaries this year. In 2016, I volunteered for his campaign a couple times in New York in advance of the primary, so for the past 6 months I've gotten text messages from at least five different people who are either campaign staff or volunteers asking if I can volunteer to help get signatures to get his name on the ballot or come to a debate watch party. Each time, I politely tell them that I am not supporting Bernie in the primaries this year, but will support him if he gets the nomination.

Based on all of the stories we've heard in the media recently, you're probably expecting me to say that I've been the victim of nasty attacks by Bernie Bros calling me a sellout and a corporate shill. Except, that's not what happened. Not once.

Most of the people who texted me just said thanks for letting them know. One or two politely asked me who I was supporting, and when I responded that I didn't know, but gave them my reasons for not supporting Bernie this time, they remained polite and thanked me for responding.

They seem to be slightly disorganized here, based on how many different people have contacted me, but they have all been polite and nothing like the "Bernie Bros" we keep hearing about from the media.

This is just anecdotal, obviously, but it makes me wonder how many of the nasty "supporters", especially online, are actually Bernie supporters. My grandfather told me once that Nixon used to send people to burn American flags at anti-war rallies in order to discredit the anti-war movement, and I would not be at all surprised if Trump's campaign (or some third party group) is doing something similar.

February 12, 2020

NY Daily News: Bernie Sanders is the frontrunner. Now, treat him like it.

Now that Bernie Sanders has won New Hampshire after basically tying in Iowa, it’s time to finally declare him the official frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for president of the United States. So let’s start treating him that way.

Bernie skated through 2016 as the anti-Hillary Clinton, and his policy pronouncements were treated as such. If Clinton came out with a real plan to help make college more affordable — with an actual strategy for how to move it through Congress and yes, a way to pay for it — Sanders would respond with a speech about making college free for everyone, no details or plan necessary. If Clinton proposed ponies for every child under 6, Sanders would promise universal unicorns and rainbows for all.

It didn’t matter that Bernie had no idea how to deliver actual results on any of his promises because no reporter or pundit believed he would ever be the nominee, let alone the president. Sadly, the last time we were all convinced of something like that, it didn’t work out that well. The results are in the White House for all to see.

So let’s accept that Bernie is now the frontrunner and that he deserves to be treated like a potential president. How would that change coverage of the Sanders campaign?

https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-sanders-frontrunner-20200212-24c4e6ug6nfhfea7k2own7lcxe-story.html

This may be derided as an anti-Bernie hit piece, but as someone who supported him in 2016 I think it makes some good points. I would like Bernie - and every other candidate - to be vigorously vetted in the primary so we get whatever Trump may throw at the nominee out there early so we see how they respond and so it's old news by the time November comes around. So I agree with this article but I think it applies also to other candidates like Buttigieg and Klobuchar who have been vetted less than Bernie because they are only now rising to the top of the pack.

If Bernie is able to withstand attacks (in general election polling as well as in the primaries) based on quotes from his past praising socialist leaders and based on how much his plans would increase taxes, I'd strongly consider supporting him again (although I might still be hesitant because of how some of his most militant supporters are). So I encourage Bernie supporters to welcome the kind of vetting the article calls for instead of dismissing such efforts as the establishment being desperate to crush Bernie. Ditto for supporters of all the candidates - we should want them all fully vetted now, rather than letting this lawless president abuse his power to do it for us.

February 12, 2020

Best news of the night so far - turnout on par with 2008!

Already surpassed 2016 with 10% yet to report.

Just heard this on MSNBC.

February 12, 2020

I've gotten 3 hearts. Thank you!

Thanks to whoever sent them

February 12, 2020

I'm liking this CNN panel

It seems pretty balanced - one person was on Bernie's campaign in 2016 (I forget her name), then there's David Axelrod, Terry McAuliffe, and a woman - Jessica something - who is a Clinton campaign veteran. It seems pretty balanced overall. Glad to see someone who is a Bernie 2016 veteran so people can't complain it's rigged against him. And they are doing a good job of putting things in context. Axelrod has been suprisingly complimentary of Bernie. They're being pretty hard on Biden though.

February 7, 2020

I didn't vote against Romney in 2012

I didn't have to. I had a president I was very excited to vote for. I didn't want Romney to be president because I disagreed with most of his policies and didn't want more conservative judges, but I never thought he was a terrible person and I figured he would be a bad but not terrible president, probably not as bad as Bush. But I was way more excited to vote for Obama's re-election than I was passionate about stopping Romney.

I don't have a preference yet in the primaries because I just can't get as excited about any of the candidates running as I was about Obama. All of the candidates have strengths and weaknesses, but none of them inspires me as much as he did. This is probably in part because I am older and less starry-eyed now than I was during Obama's elections, but I really wish I could feel the same passion I felt back then. To quote Leo McGarry on West Wing when Josh tried to get him interested in joining a campaign for Bartlett's successor, "I already got my guy." Am I the only one feeling this way?

I'm voting against Trump in November no matter what. But I really hope by the time the primaries are over, whoever the nominee is, most of us can feel like we have someone to vote for, because I feel like when most of a party's voters are voting more against the other guy than for their own candidate the party doesn't win.

I hope this is okay to post here, since it's not in favor or or against any specific candidate. But if you feel this belongs in the Primaries board I will move it.