Tweet of the Day

VA-SEN: Roll Call Rating Change: Race Moves to Solid Democratic

The Democratic presidential nominee has carried Virginia in each of the last three elections, including Hillary Clinton’s 5-point victory in 2016. More recently, in 2017, Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam defeated Gillespie 54 percent to 45 percent in the gubernatorial race and Democrats nearly took over the House of Delegates in an election night surprise.

Had 2017 turned out better for Republicans, the party might have been able to recruit a strong challenger to Kaine. But as things stand, the GOP Senate field includes a candidate determined to run a Trump-esque campaign and a conservative firebrand, both of whom are likely to get pounded in the suburbs, and one unproven state legislator.

There’s scant evidence that Corey Stewart, chairman of the Prince William County board of supervisors (who lost narrowly to Gillespie in the 2017 Republican primary), and minister E.W. Jackson (who lost to Northam 55 percent to 45 percent in the 2013 race for lieutenant governor) have the statewide appeal necessary to knock off an incumbent in Virginia.

State Del. Nick Freitas, who served in the Iraq War, could be interesting but is a long way from being a top-tier candidate. The GOP field is so underwhelming that Sen. Cory Gardner, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, met with Gilmore, who hasn’t won an election in 20 years, according to The Washington Post.

Putting the state-specific dynamic aside, Republicans are just unlikely to have the money to invest in Virginia to combat Kaine’s financial advantage when all of the Senate races across the country are taken into account. Before focusing on Virginia, Republicans will prioritize their own vulnerable seats in Arizona, Nevada and potentially elsewhere, along with those of the 10 Democratic senators running for re-election in states Donald Trump carried.



https://www.rollcall.com/news/gonzales/tim-kaine-virginia-senate-gop-prospects

Royce Retirement Moves CA-39 from Lean Republican to Lean Democratic

Democrats got a boost they desperately wanted when GOP House Foreign Relations Chair Rep. Ed Royce announced his retirement from California's 39th CD. Royce has held the northern Orange County seat easily since 1992, in part because he's built a deep relationship with immigrant communities in a district that is 29 percent Asian and just 31 percent white. But without Royce, Republicans will struggle to hold the seat.

The 39th District encompasses upscale Fullerton and Yorba Linda in Orange County, Diamond Bar in Los Angeles County and Chino Hills in San Bernardino County. In 2012 it voted for GOP nominee Mitt Romney 51 percent to 47 percent. But in 2016, as Donald Trump struggled with the non-white and college-educated voters who dominate the 39th, Hillary Clinton carried it 51 percent to 43 percent.

With President Trump's approval rating languishing south of 40 percent, a Republican lacking Royce's reputation and $3.5 million would be a considerable underdog in November, particularly without a competitive GOP candidate for governor or senator to drive out turnout.

However, if Republicans do have a chance to hold this seat, it probably rests with the state's top-two primary system. Before today, Royce had five announced Democratic opponents with over $100,000 in the bank. If they split the vote enough ways and only two name-brand Republican run, the Republicans could theoretically win both general election slots in the June top-two primary and shut Democrats out of the seat.


https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/california-house/royce-retirement-moves-ca-39-lean-republican-lean-democratic

CA-39: With numbers like these, Republicans will likely abandon this seat

Billionaire Tom Steyer pledges $30 million to help flip the House, impeachment or no impeachment.

Marvel Studios' Black Panther - Rise TV Spot (VIDEO)

Trump Weighs Limited Strike on North Korea

“As one sign of how fraught the confrontation with North Korea remains despite the tentative onset of diplomatic activity, consider this: U.S. officials are debating whether it’s possible to mount a limited military strike against North Korean sites without igniting an all-out war on the Korean Peninsula,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The idea is known as the ‘bloody nose’ strategy: React to some nuclear or missile test with a targeted strike against a North Korean facility to bloody Pyongyang’s nose and illustrate the high price the regime could pay for its behavior. The hope would be to make that point without inciting a full-bore reprisal by North Korea.”

“It’s an enormously risky idea, and there is a debate among Trump administration officials about whether it’s feasible. North Koreans have a vast array of artillery tubes pointed across the Demilitarized Zone at Seoul, the capital of South Korea, with which they could inflict thousands of casualties within minutes if they choose to unleash all-out barrage.”


https://politicalwire.com/2018/01/08/trump-weighs-limited-strike-north-korea/

Mitt Romney diagnosed with prostate cancer this past summer.

Came as a bulletin on my phone. Prognosis was good and he is being encouraged to run for the Senate.

Idaho Group pursues Medicaid expansion

A group hoping to expand Medicaid in Idaho will kick off its campaign in Blaine County this week, hosting two open houses to recruit the signatures to put the issue on the ballot this year.

Medicaid for Idaho, a division of Reclaim Idaho, will hold events on Thursday, Jan. 4, from 5:30-7:30 p.m. at The Smokey Bone in Hailey, and Friday, Jan 5, from noon to 1:30 p.m. at the Leadville Espresso House in Ketchum.

Its goal: to close the so-called Medicaid gap, which consists of people who earn too much money to qualify for Medicaid, but too little to receive federal help buying insurance.

The Idaho Department of Health and Welfare, which is pursuing a separate plan to fill the gap, puts that number at 78,000 Idahoans. Others estimate it lower; Close the Gap Idaho, an organization aiming to expand insurance access, puts the number between 51,000 and 62,000.


http://www.mtexpress.com/news/blaine_county/group-pursues-medicaid-expansion/article_e889d6f6-f013-11e7-93ac-53d9708a56fb.html

The CDC wants the public to be prepared for nuclear war

he CDC wants the public to be prepared for nuclear war.

The agency has posted a notice touting a Jan. 16 briefing about the work that federal, state and local governments are doing in case of a possible nuclear strike.

“While a nuclear detonation is unlikely, it would have devastating results and there would be limited time to take critical protection steps,” the notice states. “Despite the fear surrounding such an event, planning and preparation can lessen deaths and illness.”

Presenters include Dan Sosin, CDC's deputy director and chief medical officer in the Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response, and experts on radiation safety and environmental hazards.

The briefing comes amid rising tensions between the United States and North Korea. President Donald Trump earlier this week fired off a taunting tweet in which he bragged that his nuclear arsenal is more powerful than North Korea’s. The CDC notice preceded that message.


https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/04/nuclear-war-cdc-briefing-266633