October 30, 2012

New poll: Obama up 6 in Nevada, Heller/Berkley is dead heat (IMPORTANT INTERNALS)

Obama is leading Romney among independents in the poll by 51 percent to 40 percent. If that sub-group number is accurate, Romney is dead in Nevada.

A couple of notes on the sample for Republicans already wailing this is a Democratic poll:

The partisan breakdown is: 36 percent of the sample are registered Republicans, 42 percent are registered Democrats, and 23 percent are not affiliated with either party. The Democrats actually have a 7 percent registration lead, so this assumes a slight GOP turnout advantage. Looks as if they will need a much bigger one to turn these numbers around.

Grove also has only 12 percent Hispanics in the mix. That would seem to be a low estimate. I have heard some pessimistic Democrats say it may not get to 15 percent again, but it's hard to argue that 12 percent is anything but a very conservative estimate.

Bottom line: Grove has done work in Nevada and knows the state. While any pollster can produce bad data, if this one is right, there is almost no way for Romney to win Nevada.


http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/new-poll-obama-6-nevada-hellerberkley-dead-heat#.UI80bX30O_4

October 30, 2012

Krugman: The war on Nate Silver.

Brad DeLong points me to this National Review attack on Nate Silver, which I think of as illustrating an important aspect of what’s really happening in America.

For those new to this, Nate is a sports statistician turned political statistician, who has been maintaining a model that takes lots and lots of polling data — most of it at the state level, which is where the presidency gets decided — and converts it into election odds. Like others doing similar exercises — Drew Linzer, Sam Wang, and Pollster — Nate’s model continued to show an Obama edge even after Denver, and has shown that edge widening over the past couple of weeks.

This could be wrong, obviously. And we’ll find out on Election Day. But the methodology has been very clear, and all the election modelers have been faithful to their models, letting the numbers fall where they may.

Yet the right — and we’re not talking about the fringe here, we’re talking about mainstream commentators and publications — has been screaming “bias”! They know, just know, that Nate must be cooking the books. How do they know this? Well, his results look good for Obama, so it must be a cheat. Never mind the fact that Nate tells us all exactly how he does it, and that he hasn’t changed the formula at all.



http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/28/the-war-on-objectivity/

October 29, 2012

Mellman Group has Obama up 49% to 44% in Ohio.

With just over a week until ElectionDay, our recently completed surveyshows President Obama leading MittRomney in Ohio by 5 percentage points(49% Obama, 44% Romney). Obama’slead in the Buckeye State is bolsteredby a strong performance among the 23% who say they have already voted.In that segment he garners more thantwice as many votes as Romney (63%Obama, 29% Romney).

Obama also performs well with swingvoters, holding a 7-point lead overRomney among independents (44%Obama, 37% Romney) and a 15-pointlead among moderates (52% Obama, 37% Romney). Moreover, Obama’s margin among Democrats(+90 points) is larger than Romney’s among Republicans (+83 points). Obama’s strength amongindependents, coupled with his fully consolidated base, puts him in a solid position going into the final week.

Ohioans also like President Obama better than Governor Romney. Fifty-three percent (53%) viewPresident Obama favorably, compared to 45% who view him unfavorably. By contrast, only 46% viewRomney favorably while 50% are unfavorable. Obama also holds a clear image advantage amongindependents, with a majority viewing him favorably (53% favorable, 42% unfavorable). Romney, onthe other hand, is viewed unfavorably by a majority of these swing voters (41% favorable, 52 unfavorable).

http://www.scribd.com/doc/111497027/12mem1029-f-Oh-Auc

October 29, 2012

NV: Democrats boost lead by 3,000 voters in Clark, up to 47,000 with five days left

Turnout slowed on Sunday in Clark County, with only about 24,000 people going to the polls and the Democrats adding fewer voters (3,000) to their lead than any day so far.

So five days of early voting left and the state of play: The Democrats have a lead, but not one that guarantees victory for President Obama. Republicans, though, have to be worried about Washoe County, where the Democrats have been building a small lead -- it's about 1,600 votes or so now. Republicans will win Election Day there and elsewhere. But if the Democrats keep it close in Washoe, it's almost impossible to see a path to a Romney victory.

The latest numbers (no mail counted Sunday) in Clark:

Democrats -- 146,937, or 49 percent

Republicans -- 99,515, or 33 percent

Others -- 54,540, or 18 percent


http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/day-9-democrats-boost-lead-3000-voters-clark-47000-five-days-left#.UI7ALH0pvnA

October 29, 2012

Whose glum faces do you look forward to seeing November 7.

My list:

1. Josh Romney
2. Ann Romney
3. Entire crew of Fox News
4. Unskewed polls blogger Drew Baker
5. Franklin Graham
6. Hank Williams, Jr.
7. Ted Nugent
8. Wolf Blitzer
9. David Gregory
10. Chuck Todd
11. David Gergen

October 29, 2012

Panic in Freeperville over new Politico Poll

"Politico/GWU/Battleground Poll - O49/R48 w/leaners (BRIT HUME WAS WRONG!)

On Fox News Sunday, Brit Hume said the poll would show Romney +5. He was very wrong."


http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2951744/posts

October 29, 2012

CNN: Giants win World Series. This is no doubt good news for John McCain!!

October 29, 2012

Another good day in Nevada early voting.

Jon Ralston ?@RalstonReports
Dems have big day in Washoe today, win early vote by 400 votes. Smallest turnout yet (4,326). Reg even, but Dems have 10-point win Sunday.


https://twitter.com/RalstonReports

October 29, 2012

Romney pollster skeptical about winning Nevada, Pennsylvania.

In a piece that posted on POLITICO a short time ago, reporters Anna Palmer and John Bresnahan write that during a recent conference call, "Romney pollster Neil Newhouse told participants that he 'was skeptical' about the GOP challenger’s chances in Pennsylvania and Nevada."

They also point out that Newhouse's comments "contradicted the assessment Friday by Rich Beeson, Romney’s political adviser, in an interview with POLITICO where he asserted that while Nevada 'has been the toughest nut for us to crack,' Romney was still within a couple of points of Obama there."

I am sure the folks on the ground here have told Boston they have a chance to win the state. I've heard them say it. And while I believe there are several reasons why Romney is still fighting here (and he visited Vegas and Reno last week), I have to believe that smart people at the top of the campaign are indeed skeptical.


http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/romney-pollster-skeptical-about-winning-nevada#.UI3c5X13m10

October 28, 2012

Ok let's play Sandy politics. Does which counties in trouble are red/blue?

I am a little worried about eastern PA. Are the counties hardest hit in VA and NC red or blue?