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Profile Information

Gender: Male
Hometown: Detroit Area, MI
Home country: USA
Current location: San Francisco, CA
Member since: Wed Oct 29, 2008, 02:53 PM
Number of posts: 36,806

About Me

Partner, father and liberal Democrat. I am a native Michigander living in San Francisco who is a citizen of the world.

Journal Archives

IN-SEN: Bayh leads by 7 points.

The poll shows a closer race than a previous Democratic internal survey, conducted in the immediate wake of Bayh’s announcement last month. That survey, commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, showed Bayh 21 points ahead of Young.
As of now, Bayh is winning enough crossover voters to claim the lead, despite Trump’s advantage: 16 percent of Trump voters also said they would cast their ballots for Bayh, with Young winning only 3 percent of Clinton voters.

Democrats will need to pick up four Senate seats to wrest control of the chamber away from the GOP — if Clinton defeats Trump for the White House — and Bayh’s candidacy is seen as a boon to their efforts. The GOP is already defending seven seats in states Obama won twice at the presidential level, and Trump’s overall slide in the polls has put other states in play, too.

Republicans have mounted a substantial effort to discredit Bayh, who worked for a lobbying firm after retiring from the Senate six years ago. The poll indicates they have made little headway so far, though there are still voters for whom Bayh is undefined: 46 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Bayh, while only 19 percent view him unfavorably. But more than a third, 35 percent, said they have no opinion of Bayh, who served two terms in the Senate, and two terms as governor prior to that.


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Clinton leads Trump by 10% in Michigan

We're 12 weeks to election day and soon, voters will decide on a new leader of the free world. According to the latest Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell Poll, Michigan voters look to be leaning towards Hillary Clinton.

The exclusive poll shows the Democratic nominee leading Donald Trump by a 10% margin, with 49% leaning towards Clinton, 39% towards Trump, 9% to Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, and 5% to Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein.

“Trump’s support is fueled by angry voters. We asked voters if they agreed or disagreed with the statement ‘I’m mad as hell and I won’t take it anymore.’” Of the 54% who said they agreed, Trump leads by a 2:1 margin (58%-28%). However, among the 26% who disagreed, Clinton leads by a huge margin (87%-9%). Among the 20% who were not sure if they agreed or not, Clinton led by a more than 2:1 margin (58%-25%),” Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said.

The race appears to be a two-horse race with Clinton expanding her lead in key demographics.

“Clinton’s lead has widened and the percentage of undecided voters has dropped since our July survey that showed Clinton leading Trump 40%-34%. She has a very strong eighteen percent lead with women (54%-35%) and leads with men as well (45%-41%). Clinton is also doing better with Democrats (88% support) than Trump is doing with Republicans (77%). Trump had been winning with independents but now trails with those voters in a two-way race by seven percent (42%-35%). Since the end of the two conventions, Clinton has solidified her lead in Michigan,” Mitchell concluded.


Donald Trump To Bring Adviser With Russia Ties To Classified Briefing

WASHINGTON ― Donald Trump will bring Michael Flynn ― a former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency who was paid by a Russian state-funded television network to speak at its 10th-anniversary gala ― to his first national security briefing on Wednesday.

Flynn, a retired lieutenant general and high-profile adviser to Trump, has attracted attention since he was pushed out of government in 2014 for criticisms of what he says is the Obama administration’s failure to confront “radical Islam,” his role as an analyst on the Russian network RT, and his embrace of Trump.

ABC News reported on Tuesday that Flynn, along with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, would accompany Trump to his first top-secret briefing, heightening critics’ fears that the Trump camp would gain access to secrets it could potentially leak to contacts in the Kremlin. But former intelligence officials familiar with the the briefings process said it’s unlikely that the presidential nominees or their advisers will be looped in on critical secrets until after the election in November.

It’s not unusual for presidential nominees to bring national security aides to classified briefings. The candidates are automatically eligible for briefings after receiving their party’s nomination, but aides must first be vetted and granted an expedited security clearance, David Priess, author of The President’s Book of Secrets, said in a phone interview. Priess, a former CIA analyst and briefer, said he was not aware of any nominee’s adviser ever being barred from attending a briefing.

A spokesman from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which oversees the classified meetings, declined to elaborate on the vetting process for the aides who accompany nominees.


Pence faces boos at rally over Trump rival Martinez.

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — Gov. Mike Pence faced a chorus of boos from the crowd at a rally here on Tuesday after he defended Gov. Susana Martinez, a fellow Republican who has declined to endorse Donald Trump in his presidential bid.

“Let me say Susana Martinez is a dear, dear friend of mine,” Pence said in a response to a question about why Martinez and other Republicans have not endorsed Trump.

“She’s a great governor, she’s done a great job for New Mexico,” Pence said Tuesday, drawing boos from the crowd. Pence had spoken with Martinez just a few hours earlier at the Republican Governors Association summer meeting in Aspen, Colorado.
Trump and Martinez do not have a warm relationship, with the GOP nominee saying in May that the New Mexico governor “has got to do a better job.”

It was not immediately clear whether the crowd was booing Martinez or Pence's defense of the governor.


The Punisher Could Be Coming to Netflix In 2017

A new landing page in the Netflix app on mobile is launching speculation that The Punisher, the spinoff of Daredevil starring Jon Bernthal as Frank Castle, The Punisher, may be coming sooner than we thought. When Netflix revealed in July their production schedule for their coming Marvel shows, they confirmed only that Iron Fist and Defenders would be coming in 2017. The latter is the uniting of the first four series' heroes. At that time, Netflix Chief Content Officer Ted Sarandos said Jessica Jones season 2, The Punisher, and Daredevil Season 3 wouldn't be coming until at least 2018.

Now, though, a landing page for The Punisher has been found in the mobile app (you can literally just search for The Punisher and it's right there). The landing page lists the title, and a very basic logline: "After the murder of his family, Frank Castle is both haunted and hunted. In the criminal underworld, he'll become known as The Punisher." So why does this make people think it might be coming sooner than we thought? Netflix's history has been to only post these landing pages when the show is about a year out. If that pattern held, then The Punisher would be set for a 2017 launch.

However, there are also aspects that hold that back from being a certainty. First, Netflix lists no date whatsoever (for the record, there's no date on Iron Fist or Defenders pages either). Also, things could simply be changing; now that Netflix has more than their initial five series officially announced, they could simply want that landing page to keep the average viewer interested - Netflix has a vested interest in keeping their paying customers around, after all. They also have yet to put out more than two in a year, and every indication at the TCA '16 panel was that they were happy and comfortable with that release schedule.

Still, the landing page is a positive step in the direction of Marvel's The Punisher coming to life once more, this time in his own series. For now, Luke Cage is next up on September 30, 2016.


538 Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Is Clear And Steady

I’m going through this somewhat tedious explanation because it’s basically how FiveThirtyEight’s forecast models calculate their trend line adjustment, which works by comparing polls against previous editions of the same surveys. The idea here is simple. If Trump is gaining ground on Clinton overall, we ought to see him gaining ground in individual polls (including state polls, which are also used to calculate the trend line adjustment). But he isn’t gaining on Clinton, mostly. In polls that had previously surveyed the race since the conventions, Trump is up a point or so in some polls and down a point or so in others — the overall trend is about flat. And in polls that are taking a post-convention snapshot for the first time, Clinton is generally polling better than she did before the conventions. Thus, our polls-only model continues to show Clinton ahead by around 8 percentage points. And it gives her an 89 percent chance of winning, close to where she’s been over the past week.

Still, I’m not quite ready to declare that Clinton’s lead is completely convention bounce free and that we’ve reached a new equilibrium in the race. That’s because I’d like to see another round of high-quality, traditional telephone polls — for instance, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll or the ABC News/Washington Post poll. Those polls generally showed excellent results for Clinton just after the conventions, with a larger bounce than some of the tracking polls had. But none of them have surveyed the race twice since the conventions, to give us a sense for whether Clinton’s bounce is holding. This more conservative attitude is closer to the one our polls-plus model takes, which still assumes the race is more likely than not to tighten. It shows mildly brighter prospects for Trump, giving him a 22 percent chance of winning.


Trump upsets Filipinos with proposal to block immigration

When GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump suggested that immigration from the Philippines should be stopped because it’s a terrorist nation, he likely ended any chance he may have had to compete for the Daly City vote.

Trump “is doing what he usually does, which is speaking without thinking,” said Mike Guingona, a councilman in Daly City, where a third or more of the 104,000 residents are Filipino Americans or of Filipino descent. “For someone to make such a broad and sweeping statement without any evidence is unacceptable.”

Speaking last week at a rally in Portland, Maine, Trump said allowing even legal immigration and tourism from countries plagued by terrorism is “pure, raw stupidity.”

Since last year, Trump has called for Muslims to be barred from entering the United States, and said last month that his position has “gotten bigger ... I’m talking about territories now.”

While he declined to say what nations would be included in a potential ban, he listed the Philippines as an example of where a resident legally moved to the United States and was arrested and sentenced last year to 25 years in prison for terrorist activities. However, there’s no evidence Filipino terrorism has permeated the U.S. — it’s a homegrown movement that generally stays there.

“We’re letting people come in from terrorist nations that shouldn’t be allowed because you can’t vet them,” Trump said. “You have no idea who they are. This could be the biggest Trojan horse of all time.”


Olympics: WTF is this all about?

Four years ago, Gabby Douglas was the darling of the U.S. women's gymnastics team, winning the all-around competition and leading the team to a gold medal as well at the London Games.

In 2016, Douglas was no longer the team's star. That would be Simone Biles who won the all-around gold this year, but Douglas did help the team to the gold with her performance on the uneven bars. When the team took to the medal podium to receive their golds as the U.S. national anthem played, there were some upset by Douglas not putting her hand over her heart.

That small gesture, or lack thereof, was enough to turn some against the woman who had been a national sensation in 2012. There were columns written about how it was disrespectful and nasty tweets directed at Douglas for an innocuous thing that she even apologized for later.

"I tried to stay off the internet because there's just so much negativity," Douglas told reporters on Sunday. "Either it was about my hair or my hand not over my heart [on the medal podium] or I look depressed. ... It was hurtful. It was hurtful. It was. It's been kind of a lot to deal with."

This is an athlete that's twice competed for the United States in the Olympics and has helped the team win two gold medals, but her standing at attention on the podium rather than putting hand over heart is enough to incite anger. Douglas, like many, finds it hard to believe these criticisms exist because she does do this for her country.


John McLaugjlin dead at 89

I tuned into the McLaughlin many Friday nights, especially during ejection years.
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