May 11, 2019

US-DPRK: Mine's Bigger than Yours

(Source- Channel A News Top Ten, 5.9)

North Korea has fired two more guided missiles from a launch site inland near Sino Ri, North Pyongyan Province. The flight paths carried the missiles eastward toward the Sea of Japan/East Sea. The first launch at 4:30 pm Seoul time was estimated as a 420 to 430 km flight. The second launch at 4:50 pm was estimated at 270 km. The prior guided missile flight from the Hodo peninsula on April 4, was 240 km.

The US announced on April 9 that it had seized a North Korean coal freighter Wise Honest on or about April 2. The US also fired another Minuteman III ICBM in a second exercise on April 9, the missile was targeted at the Kwajalein range in the Marshal Islands. This was the second Minuteman III test launch in just over a week. It is believed that the US Minuteman ICBM launch on the 9th was almost contemporaneous with the two North Korean Sino Ri launches. Reportedly the Vandenburg launch took place ten minutes after the first North Korean launch. The claim that this second Minuteman launch was a routine exercise launch seems disingenuous. The USS Rhode Island test fired a Trident SLBM off the Florida east coast April 9, a few hours later. Some headlines appear to be trying to relate this Navy launch to the North Korean situation to get the most mileage out of it.


(Source- KBS 24 youtube podcast April 26) Panmunjeom Declaration, one year special edition discussion. Pak Ji Won, Democratic Peace Party representive; Jeong Se Hyun, former Unification Minister; Moon Jang In, President's special adviser for unification policy, foreign relations, and national security.

Stephen Biegun is in Seoul purportedly to discuss negotiating approaches to North Korea. South Korea intends to carry out humanitarian food aid to North Korea. The White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said the US would not oppose it. I have the distinct impression from listening to an open discussion among the three "wise men" of South Korea concerning unification policies, April 26, calling for more courage from the Moon Administration in a difficult situation, that the humanitarian aid would go ahead whether the US consented or not. The wise men also called for South Korea to draw up a road map for denuclearization with each step delineated on a schedule with tangible actions for North Korea and tangible reciprocal measures by the US including easing of sanctions incrementally as progress is made along the way. Why the US hasn't done this yet reflects on the character of its "negotiating" effort.

May 8, 2019

Hyunmoo 3 picture side by side

(Source Channel A Top Ten News 5.7)

North Korea tactical guided missile left. South Korean Hyunmoo tactical guided missile right. Both solid fueled.



Town says, "It actually makes it more difficult for the U.S. and South Korea to postpone military exercises." The problem here is that they had already resumed exercises in late April before this launch in North Korea. Several experts have linked the two events.

In any case, what happened in Hanoi was a rejection of negotiations and a return to regime change politics by the US despite Trump and Pompeo's statements to the contrary. This was signaled implicitly by the breakin to the Madrid embassy by the group "Free Joseon" (just before Hanoi); the adoption of an all or nothing approach to negotiations with no reciprocity at Hanoi; the rejection of the South Korean joint economic overtures to North Korea at Hanoi; the abandonment of the Singapore joint statement; the public complaints about human rights abuses in North Korea by US representatives to UN committees; and the human rights content of daily VOA broadcasts in Korean, including public statements from top republicans in Congress and the Senate on a daily basis concerning human rights, weapons of mass destruction and other items not outlined at Singapore. The import of these events is unmistakable. Even the conservative expert in South Korea, Thae Yong Ho (the former DPRK diplomat) has commented that a return to human rights issues is the code for regime change in North Korea and signals an end to negotiation.


(Source- Channel A News Top Ten 4,23) "US Forces Korea, last week conducted a THAAD deployment to Pyeongtaek...Photo made public on SNS."

In the last few weeks, the US has test fired a double ABM intercept on a single test target in the Pacific, conducted an exercise Minuteman III ICBM launch in the Pacific, deployed THAAD missiles to Camp Humphreys in a mobility exercise, and conducted a renamed version of the Max Thunder joint Air Force exercise with South Korea.