December 2, 2021

South Korea: Lee Jae-myung slightly ahead of Yoon Seok-yeol in presidential poll

(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 12.1.2021) Channel A News commissioned presidential polling 11.27- 11.29 results nationwide: Democrat Lee Jae-myung 35.5%, PPP (conservative) candidate Yoon Seok-yeol 34.6%, Justice Party Shim Sang-jung 4.9%, National Party Ahn Chul-soo 6.0%, Independent Kim Dong-yon 1.6%, others 2.8%, reserved judgement 14.6%. Lee's slight lead over Yoon is within the margin of error for polls of this nature which is usually 3 percent. Just over a thousand people were surveyed. The poll is believed to carry probative weight by the source democratic analyst as Channel A News is a conservative DongA media outlet.


(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 12.1.2021) Who will you vote for in next year's (3.9) presidential election? By age group, percentage of prospective votes for Lee Jae-myung on the left and Yoon Seok-yeol on the right. Voters in their thirties favor Lee by a significant margin. Voters in their forties overwhelmingly favor of the democratic candidate Lee Jae-myung. Voters in their fifties are about evenly split between the two candidates. Voters in the sixties or older favor the conservative candidate Yoon Seok-yeol by a wide margin. Lee Jae-myung has apparently changed the momentum among the voters 18 to 29 somewhat in his favor. Yoon's "talk concert" campaign at youth campaign venues may have been counterproductive (see my previous post "Bro" Seok-yeol, Nov. 30). Yet many of the youngest voters appear to be reserving their choice at this point. Not happy with their social and economic prospects during the current five year term of democratic President Moon Jae-in, they may not like what they're hearing from the conservative Yoon campaign either, particularly concerning housing, wages, and labor conditions. Yoon's polling bounce after his nomination at the PPP convention appears to be over. Democratic pundits believe the more campaign exposure Yoon and his family receive the more support he could lose because of multiple allegations of unlawful acts currently under investigation.

On the other hand, conservative media sources had accused Lee of spouse abuse after a recent incident in which his wife lost consciousness and fell injuring her head. She was taken to the hospital in an ambulance. The accusations appear to be unfounded but probably caused Lee to lose some votes among young women. Equal opportunity for women, and feminist issues have been a stumbling block for both parties in recent elections. A power struggle is under way in the conservative PPP between Yoon's camp and the party leader Lee Jun-seok. The struggle for control of the party's central committee involves both the youth vote and women's issues, as Lee Jun-seok is regarded as representing young male backlash against women's EEO issues. Democrats lost the mayoral campaigns in Seoul and Pusan in April this year in part because of deceased Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon's improper office affair with his young secretary. This led to the democratic mayor's suicide when he was publicly accused of rape and sexual assault and allowed the right to pose as defenders of women's rights.

*See Reality Check in Seoul and Busan, 4.7.2021
https://civilizationdiscontents.blogspot.com/2021/04/reality-check-in-seoul-and-busan.html
and Deceased Mayor Park Won-soon- Trial by Media in South Korea 9.14.2020 https://civilizationdiscontents.blogspot.com/2020/09/deceased-mayor-park-won-soon-trial-by.html


(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 12.1.2021) Prospective presidential voting survey results by region, with democratic candidate Lee Jae-myung, left, and conservative PPP candidate Yoon Seok-yeol, right. From top to bottom. Seoul where Yoon has a substantial lead; Incheon and Gyeonggido (where Lee is governor presently) Lee leads; Daejeon, Sejong, and Choongcheong, Lee has a significant lead; In Kwangju and Cholla, Lee has a huge lead ( because of Yoon's Chun Doo-won gaffes* ) ; In Daegu and Gyeongbok, Yoon has a huge lead (this is the center of conservative regional dominance); In Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam, Yoon has a significant lead, and finally Yoon has a small lead in Gangwon and Jeju Island.

*Yoon Seok-yeol's "apple" apology and the Chun Doo-hwan dictatorship, 10.23.2021;
https://civilizationdiscontents.blogspot.com/2021/10/yoon-seok-yeols-apple-apology-and-chun.html