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ancianita

Profile Information

Gender: Do not display
Hometown: New England, The South, Midwest
Home country: USA
Current location: Chicago
Member since: Sat Mar 5, 2011, 12:32 PM
Number of posts: 17,789

About Me

Human. Being.

Journal Archives

Calendar of Remaining Democratic Primaries

We need to think ahead. Worst case scenarios and all.

Coolest. President. Evah.




Governor Jay Inslee Addresses Washington On Everyone Taking Action By Looking Forward

Gov. Jay Inslee Tells Maddow What His State Is Doing

... in the face of laughable "stop testing" orders, and horrible classification of WH COVID-19 meetings.



MMM -- Whatever Wednesday

headphones always recommended

James Blake. “Retrograde”


Jesper Ryom. "Apolune”


!!!. (chk chk chk) “Me and Giuliani Down by the Schoolyard”


(lyrics)
Well the way I see it doesn't really matter
'Cause it don't make no sense to all those mad Manhatters
But I do believe that there must come a moment
When even the piggiest pig must get on up and move it

I got this friend named Neil, swears Nixon had a soul
But what I'd like to know is can Giuli' do the stroll?

People always ask me, "what's so fucking great about dancing?"
How the fuck should I know?
Yeah, even I can barely understand it
But when the music takes over, the music takes control

Here's a message to you Rudy and you sir, Mr. Bloomberg and the rest of you ties-too-tight dudes
Y'all could learn a lesson, by losing inhibitions, yeah
Losing yourself in the music, losing yourself in the moment

Because we have nothing more than this very second
You can't count on the one coming after, no one's sure about the one before
So forget about it, we live here and now dude, here and now, here and now, here and now
So get on down down down down down down down down down down down down down down

NYC is where the freaks come to be free and if I can't get my freak on, see
I'ma hang up Giuliani, he can sic his lackeys on me
But you can't stop a new age dawning

So if you got hips then shake them
And if you got fears, forsake them
Giuliani's got his rules but we ain't no fools, let's break them

Let's break them, let's break on down
And on the way we make them say
Everybody cut, everybody cut, everybody cut
loose

Cut and shake that butt
And on the way we'll make 'em say, make 'em say

Doodoodoodoodtodooo ... doodoodoodoodooodotodooo ...

Worldometer Coronavirus Numbers Update

United States new cases include:

- 5 new cases, including 1 death in South Dakota (Pennington County): a man in his 60s and with underlying health problems [source]
- 3 new cases in Tennessee: 2 in Middle Tennessee, 1 in Sullivan County (East Tennessee) [source]
- 2 new cases in Louisiana, all in the New Orleans area [source]

- 3 cases in Texas in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, all in same family: a man in his 30s, his wife, and their 3-year-old child (one of the family’s 4 children) [source]
- 1 new case in Oregon [source]
- 74 new cases and 2 new deaths in Washington state

- 8 new cases in Illinois [source]
- 51 new cases in Massachusetts [source]
- 5 new cases in Iowa [source]

- 1 new case in Minnesota (Anoka County) [source]
- 1 new case in Virginia (Loudoun County) [source]
- 1 new death in Washington (King County): a resident of the Life Care Center [source]

- 6 new cases in California (Santa Clara County) [source]
- 1 new case in Maryland (Prince George’s County) [source]
- 1 new case in Florida (Volusia County) [source]

- 2 new cases in Kentucky [source]
- 1 in Oklahoma: a woman in her 20's in Tulsa [source]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

An Interesting Look At Our Biases Re The Coronavirus.

I wanted to share Mark Manson's piece here for a few reasons.

1. Science can only take us so far as we go through a pandemic that's not existed in our lifetime.
2. This piece helps us look beyond our knowledge of the rates of contamination and death rates, etc.
3. I'm only focusing on his third part, but the first two are definitely worth a read.


3. Our Cognitive Biases in Action – I’ve written quite a bit in the past about how our minds are inaccurate and we form erroneous beliefs based on irrational feelings.

Coronavirus is interesting because people seem to default to either panic mode or denial. It’s either, “The world is ending!” or “What’s the big deal?”

The truth is, as usual, somewhere in the middle. Individually, most of us are not at much risk. Systemically, we are at great risk. It’s exactly these scenarios ... where there’s a large mismatch between individual and systemic risks ...

That’s because our minds default to view things through how they affect us, not how they affect the country, the community, or the world. We have cognitive weaknesses when it comes to stuff like that—and no, I don’t just mean being bad at math. For example:

We all tend to think linearly, not exponentially – Paul Graham had an excellent tweet about this where he said, “People aren’t surprised when I tell them there are 13,000 Covid-19 cases outside China, or when I tell them this number doubles every 3 days. But when I tell them that if growth continues at this rate, we’ll have 1.7 million cases in 3 weeks, they’re astonished.”
The economist Tyler Cowen pointed out that the people most alarmed about coronavirus seem to be people accustomed to thinking exponentially—people in tech, finance, and science. People who seem to think this is a bunch of crybabies crying about crybaby things are used to thinking about problems linearly.

We tend to focus on first-order effects, not second- or third-order effects – If I wreck my car, I’m most likely to be upset about my wrecked car (first-order effect), not how I’m going to pick up my kids from school each day or how higher insurance premiums will affect my monthly budget (second-order effects), even though the second- and third-order effects will have a bigger impact on my life than the damaged car.

Much of the analysis I’ve seen on coronavirus stops at the first-order effects. “Stay healthy, wash your hands, you’re going to be fine.” Hell, that was basically my analysis a few weeks ago.

But the second and third-order effects of this could potentially be quite large.

...one example:
the US healthcare system is utterly broken. Roughly 60% of Americans can’t afford to pay for an unexpected emergency and 10% of Americans don’t have health insurance at all. Medicare (which insures old people) is already on shaky financial ground. 20 million extra people hitting the hospitals over the next year could cause a different type of epidemic: bankruptcies.

Another potential second-order effect: de-globalization. Quarantines and broken supply chains will force countries to adapt by reinvesting resources within their own borders, cutting off trade ties, making them more skeptical of travelers and business relationships and causing all sorts of shifts in the political zeitgeist.

Another one: coronavirus is most dangerous to the elderly. And the elderly vote more than anybody else and tend to be the most politically conservative demographic. The United States, South Korea, Greece, and Poland are just some of the countries with major elections this year. With 10-20% of the elderly population unable to vote, that could shift electoral results in many places.

Another one! Western countries and Japan are generally older populations. They have more old people than young. The Middle East and Africa are incredibly young countries. Some countries will come out of this far more unscathed than others simply due to their age demographics. That means lower health care costs, smaller losses in productivity, less fear and panic in markets, etc.


I’m not saying these things will happen. I’m just saying these are some of the things that aren’t immediately obvious that we could be thinking about.

We tend to focus on one-off solutions, rather refining daily habits – And finally, as I’ve written before, we are biased towards single, big changes in behavior to accomplish something rather than accumulating many small, regular changes that create bigger benefits. For example, wearing a mask is almost useless. Whereas eating a healthy diet of fruits and vegetables and taking vitamins C and D regularly will boost your immune system immensely. Honestly, the single best thing you can do right now to protect yourself from coronavirus is all the same shit you should have been doing anyway: eat well, drink less, smoke not at all. And yes, wash your goddamn hands.
I’m sorry if this feels all doom and gloom.

Here are a few useful things to remember:

First, things like this are the norm throughout human history, not the exception. We’ve been spoiled lately in the disease department. We’ll make it through it. We always do.

Second, I know we call them economic “crises” but really, economic contractions are normal and healthy things for an economy. It’s where we cull the dead weight and sort out which businesses are actually creating value for society and which ones are just leeching off the rest of us. Or as Warren Buffett puts it, “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

And finally, we don’t know what we don’t know. There could be a miraculous vaccine discovery next month. Warm weather might eradicate much of this thing by summer. It might randomly mutate and become less lethal. The stress of this might force our healthcare systems to become more robust and cost-effective. The quarantines might change work-life culture across the world. Emissions might drop. Cybersex might make a roaring comeback. Who the fuck knows?

But if you look throughout history, the biggest and most necessary changes typically come in the wake of crises, much like our most important personal changes often come in the wake of our traumas. There’s always growth in pain. And there’s always opportunity for creation in destruction.

So stay safe. Stay clean. Stay home as much as you can. And… stay away from grandma for a while.


https://markmanson.net/newsletters/motherfcking-monday-21?fbclid=IwAR272Ytpr5sSlxwxGBRnKMIni2XBMQPzTVbquG-WuDr6wBVgkkRM4y9PLhk

Midday Music for Millennials - Jes' grew can't stop, won't stop Tuesday (last day)


Behind every artist this past week are unknown ancestor-originators of the R&B universe, and some, of course, are the modern originators we know.

One can’t even begin to post all that jes’ grew, or from who.

This week didn't even touch the cake walk, rags, gospel, blues, jazz, or boogie woogie.

Larry Heard. “Can You Feel It”


J Dilla. “Dime Piece” (w/ Dwele)


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J_Dilla


Mark Morrison. “Return of the Mack”




Scatman John. “Scatman”


Jes’ grew Week, over and out.


Tips On Hand Washing -- Short Version from Wikipedia

Because we'd be surprised what people know and don't know...

What microbial growth looks like with

A = no washing procedures
B = washing procedures
C = alcohol disinfection





The "German method" of hand disinfections


Hand sanitizers containing a minimum of 60 to 95% alcohol are efficient germ killers.

Alcohol rub sanitizers kill bacteria, multi-drug resistant bacteria (MRSA and VRE), tuberculosis, and some viruses (including HIV, herpes, RSV, rhinovirus, vaccinia, influenza,[29] and hepatitis) and fungi.

Alcohol rub sanitizers containing 70% alcohol kill 99.97% (3.5 log reduction, similar to 35 decibel reduction) of the bacteria on hands 30 seconds after application and 99.99% to 99.999% (4 to 5 log reduction) of the bacteria on hands 1 minute after application.[30]

Hand sanitizers are most effective against bacteria and less effective against some viruses.
Alcohol-based hand sanitizers are almost entirely ineffective against norovirus or Norwalk type viruses, the most common cause of contagious gastroenteritis.[31]

Enough hand antiseptic or alcohol rub must be used to thoroughly wet or cover both hands.
The front and back of both hands and between and the ends of all fingers are rubbed for approximately 30 seconds until the liquid, foam or gel is dry.
As well as finger tips must be washed well too rubbing them in both palms alternatively.


The Center for Disease Control and Prevention in the USA recommends hand washing over hand sanitizer rubs, particularly when hands are visibly dirty.[32]

The increasing use of these agents is based on their ease of use and rapid killing activity against micro-organisms; however, they should not serve as a replacement for proper hand washing unless soap and water are unavailable.

Drying hands matters. Generally, paper towels are cleanest. Blow dryers INCREASE microbe count.

In 2005, in a study conducted by TÜV Produkt und Umwelt, different hand drying methods were evaluated.[45] The following changes in the bacterial count after drying the hands were observed:

Drying method Effect on bacterial count:

Paper towels and roll --- Decrease of 24%
Hot-air dryer --- Increase of 12%


Many different hand dryer manufacturers exist, and hand driers have been compared against drying with paper towels.

Hand washing with wipes[edit]
Hand washing using hand sanitizing wipes is an alternative during traveling in the absence of soap and water.[46] Alcohol-based hand sanitizer should contain at least 60% alcohol.[47]

After washing and drying hands with the warm-air dryer, the total number of bacteria was found to increase on average on the finger pads by 194% and on the palms by 254%.

Drying with the jet-air dryer resulted in an increase on average of the total number of bacteria on the finger pads by 42% and on the palms by 15%.

After washing and drying hands with a paper towel, the total number of bacteria was reduced on average on the finger pads by up to 76% and on the palms by up to 77%.

The scientists also carried out tests to establish whether there was the potential for cross contamination of other washroom users and the washroom environment as a result of each type of drying method.

They found that:

The jet-air dryer, which blows air out of the unit at claimed speeds of 180 m/s (650 km/h; 400 mph), was capable of blowing micro-organisms from the hands and the unit and potentially contaminating other washroom users and the washroom environment up to 2 meters away.

Use of a warm-air hand dryer spread micro-organisms up to 0.25 metres from the dryer.
Paper towels showed no significant spread of micro-organisms.


Microbes. Can't live with them. Can't live without them.

Guess we have to accept less and and and more and .





Brazil Refuses To Drop Charges Against Glenn Greenwald; Appeal Judge's Ruling Throwing Out The Case

The Trump/Barr model is being beta tested.

... a court and law enforcement had already said that Greenwald did not break any laws in his reporting, and had followed ethical journalistic guidelines.

And yet, he was still charged with a crime for reporting on leaked documents, with prosecutors claiming that Greenwald's suggestions to the whistleblower on how not to get caught constituted a "clear role in facilitating the commission of a crime."

This was clearly a charade, as the Bolsonairo government in Brazil seemed mostly to just want to intimidate Greenwald and the press away from reporting on what now appears to be an extremely corrupt government.

A few weeks after the charges were announced, a court again said that it was clear that Greenwald broke no laws and refused to allow the case to go forward. However, as the Freedom of the Press Foundation has now announced, prosecutors have chosen to appeal that ruling and to continue to go after Greenwald...

The charges stem from that outlet’s investigative series documenting corruption involving high ranking prosecutors and Sergio Moro, the Justice Minister in President Jair Bolsonaro’s right-wing administration.

... whether you agree with Glenn or not, this is a blatant attack on a free press, and an obvious attempt at creating a chilling effect around necessary reporting on government malfeasance.
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