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ancianita

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Gender: Do not display
Hometown: New England, The South, Midwest
Home country: USA
Current location: Chicago
Member since: Sat Mar 5, 2011, 12:32 PM
Number of posts: 10,879

About Me

Human. Being.

Journal Archives

Jeff Tiedrich

On The Green New Deal Resolution



Some Democrats believe that with the New Deal Resolution, you have to "present what you have."

While it's true that resolutions can "bring more people on board" -- even those who've believed the climate crisis to be a hoax -- Democratic leaders and Justice Democrats of the GND will need to prep, if they haven't already, for legislative and budget challenges that ignore the GND.

While Jay Inslee is out of the campaign, he supports the Green New Deal, and many here feel sure that he'll be part of a Democratic cabinet that implements it.

That a future Democratic president would use Inslee's lifetime of executive/legislating experience to pull this country out of the morass of fossil's grip, is not a guarantee. It's not a given. No national climate "debate" (for lack of a better word) will be part of the 2020 election, despite polls, though there may be random campaign speeches on climate numbers, science and workable projects.

Considering these possibilities, Inslee's package of four projects remain as a long term public good to learn about. When it comes to the current climate events we see, one can't know too much.

Timing is everything when it comes to workable solutions for the climate crisis.

Washington DC should have acted yesterday on the climate crisis. And I get that just to win the presidency and win the Senate is the Democrats' immediate goal. Inslee's plans will have to wait.

In the meantime, Jay Inslee isn't. His paid for projects on clean energy transformation are already underway in WA state. He's transitioning his state out of all fossil/coal sources to clean (as in "not renewable)
energy.

Most who acknowledge the climate crisis see the worth of the Green New Deal. The sooner it's implemented, the better. Yet it's only a start. To solve the climate crisis will take more and longer action, and not just from other countries.

Inslee's 4-level climate crisis package extends the Green New Deal from the nation's economic sectors to regions to global. In scope they are bottom to top.

Primary candidates need not endorse them. We don't have to "know" them. But rather than walk away from these plans, we Democrats can be more familiar with them, then file them away for future reference.

-- “100 percent Clean Energy for America” — a plan to get to 100 percent clean energy in electricity, new cars, and new buildings. https://www.jayinslee.com/issues/100clean

-- “Global Climate Mobilization” — a plan for reshaping foreign policy around climate change https://www.jayinslee.com/issues/global-climate

-- “Freedom From Fossil Fuels” — a plan to phase out US fossil fuel production. https://www.jayinslee.com/issues/freedom-from-fossil-fuels

-- “Community Climate Justice” — a plan for a just transition to a clean economy.https://www.jayinslee.com/issues/climate-justice

Good luck winning your third term in Washington, Governor Inslee.

The Fight Before Today's Amazon Fire -- "We Are Not Animals"

Unregulated capitalism has always killed nature and all those at one with it.

Unregulated "free" markets drive this.

If we enjoy Brazilian trade, we are not innocent of this destruction.

Alissandra Munduruku is the face of the fight against mindless plunderers' racism, and western capitalism's history.




"You all tell us the Indian is inferior, incapable; the Indian is an animal.

We are not animals. An animal is one who lives [without rights].

They are taking away our rights, our guaranteed rights.

They are taking away our land, delivering it wolves.

And I tell you, who are right here: We will not deliver over our lands. We are going to fight.

The illegal mining is invading our lands.

The loggers are invading our lands.

Our leaders are becoming sick (or sickening) themselves.

Because now, no one can even plant.

Evangelicals are entering our lands to divide our people, steal our culture, and now they want to steal our soul!

And to Bolsonaro, I want to tell you and all you arguers here:

Respect our life!

Respect our territory!

Respect our rights!

Respect our ancestors!

We've resisted since 519 years ago.

Although you've cut at our root, she is still buried there.




Woke 2020 Does Not Put Jay Inslee & the Pentagon On The Shelf

This is every bit about the primary and general election that we're moving on to.

Inslee's left, but everything he's said and done is not gone.

UNLESS we backburner climate change. Then everything is gone.

UNLESS you see the disasters, you can't understand how climate does not care about your political issues. Climate change does not care about your justice. Climate will only respond to your attention to Earth.

Remember that when not talking about climate change, Inslee had also been ignored -- yes, ignored, in the rush to clay pigeon shoot him down as a one-issue candidate -- about his other accomplishments on

employment,
family leave,
gun control,
women's issues,
utility reconfiguration to clean energy,
permaculture development in agriculture, etc.

Regardless, I still hold that climate change should never, ever be second to the so-called issues of the 2020 campaign.

Because Inslee has had a state to run, he didn't daily hit the campaign trail to remind oblivious Americans, or Americans habitually distracted by their identity issues, or Americans who don't want to think long term, about how climate change work will solve a lot of other "issues" they want other candidates to solve.

At this moment or the short "grace period" climate change gives us, we Americans do not get to benignly shelve Inslee's climate and campaign work without paying dearly.

Before Americans "move on," they need to give Inslee one last review.


1.
Of all the candidates whose issues are PLANS, Jay Inslee STILL stands out as the only one who has already DONE the following in his state:

-- Marijuana laws
-- free college tuition laws,
-- clean energy laws,
-- immigration laws,
-- income inequality and minimum wage laws,
-- family leave laws,
-- union laws,
-- sweeping voter registration laws.

He sued Trump over the Muslim ban and won -- multiple times.

Inslee, like America's Millennials, is still a doer, not a talker.

Sure, the primaries are for people to stand up for candidates with the best ideas and records. And being right is what Democrats do best.

But not just Democrats -- we ALL -- have to learn that being right and DOING right are the real proof of presidential executive know-how.
Right now, Biden, very arguably, fills that slot.

2.
BUT Jay Inslee stands right now as more accomplished than Biden or Sanders or Harris or Warren.
Like the rest of the Democratic candidates, Inslee's been on Rachel Maddow, ABC,NBC, CBS, Bill Maher and all kinds of media interviews. All while governing a state, while the other candidates are not.

3.
Jay Inslee has implemented scaleable models for transforming energy;
he's implemented construction models for the country, and
he vows to re-establish America's international work with other countries doing the same things through the Paris Climate Accord.

As for realistic PLANS, Jay Inslee's Climate Change Mobilization Project is far reaching beyond our borders, and will be taken seriously by America's allies.

Jay Inslee still stands as the only Democratic leader who knows how to do what it takes to stay below the 2 degree Celsius threshhold from which THERE WILL BE NO RETURN, and how to get the funding to do it.

4.
What STILL makes Governor Jay Inslee the best qualified?

As a state governor, he'll run for a third term. The only CURRENT governor who has run for president for 2020.

Inslee is still governor of the #1 ranked state in America. His two terms as governor have been a whole level of executive experience -- "execution" of decisions, law writing, shepherding bills through both parties of the statehouse, implementing and monitoring laws -- experience that none of the other Democratic candidates have. None of them.

Inslee has spent NINE terms in the U.S. House of Representatives, therefore has had a federal knowledge of its processes in serving both national interests and his state's interests -- a breadth of governing experience the other candidates don't have. He lost his House seat because he cared more about DOING his job than KEEPING his job, and voted to KEEP THE ASSAULT WEAPONS BAN.

As past president of the National Governors Association, Inslee still has good relations with a lot of red state governors -- experience the other candidates haven't got.

There is no oppo research on Jay Inslee -- he's clean.

His donor list was clean -- unions, SIX FIRST NATIONS TRIBES, university and tech money.

Inslee's also had the chops for a national debate. AND he's got zingers like "Trump couldn't run a two-car funeral..." "Trump is the #1 threat to our national security," and others. If all it takes is for any of our Democratic candidates not to lose in front of Trump, he'd have handily won the Democratic Party's cause.

Finally, and not for nothing, his YOUTH put him into the same age advantage category as the younger candidates.

Inslee will continue to be a green new deal torch bearer. Inslee has already ...

-- made scalable green projects in his state,
-- developed green banking,
-- assured our allies of our future commitment to foreign energy policy, and
-- signaled markets on how to grow trillions of dollars while decreasing national debt.

-------------------

Jay Inslee has put forward Two Big Plans, solid in science and funding sources, one of which he's already implementing in his state as you read this.

He has open sourced both his (domestic) Evergreen Economy Program, and his (international) Global Climate Mobilization Program at his departure from the 2020 presidential race.

In my view, Jay Inslee's departure from the 2020 presidential race is America's loss.

It is my deepest conviction that because of Jay Inslee, there's still time to learn what a first green president can do.

There may be time left to ensure a way for our grandchildren and Earth -- by putting climate change projects first in executive and legislative action -- to have life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness without unnecessary economic or physical suffering. But not too much time.

In my view, to shelve Inslee's programs with the best of intentions, or to kick like a can down the road the climate change manhattan project we must start, is to invite passive acceptance of global catastrophe. Climate change doesn't postpone itself for all the "issues" your candidates have, and no amount of blame gaming this WH occupant will stop it, either.

Or, because climate change absolutely does not care about Americans' political or other concerns, there will come the time to learn how our grandchildren will never forgive our excuses, our bad spending, our crisis management, as we turned away from a global problem we had a short time to solve for them.

They will not forget how we could have taken the time up front to save our economy, our Constitution and the Earth at the same time, justice from bottom to top.



?_nc_cat=111&_nc_oc=AQmUFrBlHdC3zIuQ5jIgF_eo5EY24-rK8jxvYNygVNzbfldxSu6mYOdJhzwxzQnZ9w1i_wQr0rskyJrmZHgsWJpz&_nc_ht=scontent-ort2-2.xx&oh=cb1c842e7d429c6c763f904346e48cf7&oe=5DDE94EE

Woke 2020 Does Not Put Jay Inslee & the Pentagon On The Shelf


Inslee's left, but everything he's said and done is not gone.

UNLESS we backburner climate change. Then everything is gone.

UNLESS you see the disasters, you can't understand how climate does not care about your political issues. Climate change does not care about your justice. Climate will only respond to your attention to Earth.

Remember that when not talking about climate change, Inslee had also been ignored -- yes, ignored, in the rush to clay pigeon shoot him down as a one-issue candidate -- about his other accomplishments on

employment,
family leave,
gun control,
women's issues,
utility reconfiguration to clean energy,
permaculture development in agriculture, etc.

Regardless, I still hold that climate change should never, ever be second to the so-called issues of the 2020 campaign.

Because Inslee has had a state to run, he didn't daily hit the campaign trail to remind oblivious Americans, or Americans habitually distracted by their identity issues, or Americans who don't want to think long term, about how climate change work will solve a lot of other "issues" they want other candidates to solve.

At this moment or the short "grace period" climate change gives us, we Americans do not get to benignly shelve Inslee's climate and campaign work without paying dearly.

Before Americans "move on," they need to give Inslee one last review.


1.
Of all the candidates whose issues are PLANS, Jay Inslee STILL stands out as the only one who has already DONE the following in his state:

-- Marijuana laws
-- free college tuition laws,
-- clean energy laws,
-- immigration laws,
-- income inequality and minimum wage laws,
-- family leave laws,
-- union laws,
-- sweeping voter registration laws.

He sued Trump over the Muslim ban and won -- multiple times.

Inslee, like America's Millennials, is still a doer, not a talker.

Sure, the primaries are for people to stand up for candidates with the best ideas and records. And being right is what Democrats do best.

But not just Democrats -- we ALL -- have to learn that being right and DOING right are the real proof of presidential executive know-how.
Right now, Biden, very arguably, fills that slot.

2.
BUT Jay Inslee stands right now as more accomplished than Biden or Sanders or Harris or Warren.
Like the rest of the Democratic candidates, Inslee's been on Rachel Maddow, ABC,NBC, CBS, Bill Maher and all kinds of media interviews. All while governing a state, while the other candidates are not.

3.
Jay Inslee has implemented scaleable models for transforming energy;
he's implemented construction models for the country, and
he vows to re-establish America's international work with other countries doing the same things through the Paris Climate Accord.

As for realistic PLANS, Jay Inslee's Climate Change Mobilization Project is far reaching beyond our borders, and will be taken seriously by America's allies.

Jay Inslee still stands as the only Democratic leader who knows how to do what it takes to stay below the 2 degree Celsius threshhold from which THERE WILL BE NO RETURN, and how to get the funding to do it.

4.
What STILL makes Governor Jay Inslee the best qualified?

As a state governor, he'll run for a third term. The only CURRENT governor who has run for president for 2020.

Inslee is still governor of the #1 ranked state in America. His two terms as governor have been a whole level of executive experience -- "execution" of decisions, law writing, shepherding bills through both parties of the statehouse, implementing and monitoring laws -- experience that none of the other Democratic candidates have. None of them.

Inslee has spent NINE terms in the U.S. House of Representatives, therefore has had a federal knowledge of its processes in serving both national interests and his state's interests -- a breadth of governing experience the other candidates don't have. He lost his House seat because he cared more about DOING his job than KEEPING his job, and voted to KEEP THE ASSAULT WEAPONS BAN.

As past president of the National Governors Association, Inslee still has good relations with a lot of red state governors -- experience the other candidates haven't got.

There is no oppo research on Jay Inslee -- he's clean.

His donor list was clean -- unions, SIX FIRST NATIONS TRIBES, university and tech money.

Inslee's also had the chops for a national debate. AND he's got zingers like "Trump couldn't run a two-car funeral..." "Trump is the #1 threat to our national security," and others. If all it takes is for any of our Democratic candidates not to lose in front of Trump, he'd have handily won the Democratic Party's cause.

Finally, and not for nothing, his YOUTH put him into the same age advantage category as the younger candidates.

Inslee will continue to be a green new deal torch bearer. Inslee has already ...

-- made scalable green projects in his state,
-- developed green banking,
-- assured our allies of our future commitment to foreign energy policy, and
-- signaled markets on how to grow trillions of dollars while decreasing national debt.

-------------------

Jay Inslee has put forward Two Big Plans, solid in science and funding sources, one of which he's already implementing in his state as you read this.

He has open sourced both his (domestic) Evergreen Economy Program, and his (international) Global Climate Mobilization Program at his departure from the 2020 presidential race.

In my view, Jay Inslee's departure from the 2020 presidential race is America's loss.

It is my deepest conviction that because of Jay Inslee, there's still time to learn what a first green president can do.

There may be time left to ensure a way for our grandchildren and Earth -- by putting climate change projects first in executive and legislative action -- to have life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness without unnecessary economic or physical suffering. But not too much time.

In my view, to shelve Inslee's programs with the best of intentions, or to kick like a can down the road the climate change manhattan project we must start, is to invite passive acceptance of global catastrophe. Climate change doesn't postpone itself for all the "issues" your candidates have, and no amount of blame gaming this WH occupant will stop it, either.

Or, because climate change absolutely does not care about Americans' political or other concerns, there will come the time to learn how our grandchildren will never forgive our excuses, our bad spending, our crisis management, as we turned away from a global problem we had a short time to solve for them.

They will not forget how we could have taken the time up front to save our economy, our Constitution and the Earth at the same time, justice from bottom to top.




?_nc_cat=111&_nc_oc=AQmUFrBlHdC3zIuQ5jIgF_eo5EY24-rK8jxvYNygVNzbfldxSu6mYOdJhzwxzQnZ9w1i_wQr0rskyJrmZHgsWJpz&_nc_ht=scontent-ort2-2.xx&oh=cb1c842e7d429c6c763f904346e48cf7&oe=5DDE94EE

Number one, we made a governing document on clean energy

.. for the United States.

Now that document is going to be open sourced, and I’m going to call on the other candidates to be more committed to the issue.


Thank you, Governor Inslee

You’re down but you’ll never be out. You’ve got grandchildren, and you care for America’s, too.

Amazon Death 2019








From 1,700 miles away, smoke plunged Sao Paolo into night.

?downsize=700%3A%2A&output-quality=auto&output-format=auto

Jay Inslee Is For Edwin Ngugi Wanji

Inslee Got 130,000! Thanks, DU!

Inslee might or might not make the polls, but at least he's got donor numbers, so thanks for all you did to help him out.

Man, I love this place and everyone in it.

Rachel Bitecofer -- DNC, Listen To Her

Bitecofer was the ONLY predictor that got the 2016 win number right.

Lawrence O'Donnell just interviewed her, and her look at leaners and voters is the analysis that the DNC needs to drive its ground game.

Salon's interview with Bitecofer offers the best path because she knows how we won the House better than our leadership does. They need to listen to her. (all bolding is mine)

With a record like that, you’d think that Bitecofer's explanation of what happened would have drawn universal attention and become common sense — but you’d be sadly mistaken. She’s barely beginning to get the recognition she deserves, and more troubling for the country, the outdated assumptions her model dispensed with continue to cloud the thinking of pundits and Democratic Party leadership alike. (Follow her on Twitter here.)

This hampers efforts to counter Donald Trump’s destructive impact on a daily basis, and spreads confusion about both Democratic prospects and strategy in the 2020 election prospects. Above all, the mistaken belief that Democrats won in 2018 by gaining Republican support (aka winning back "Trump voters" fuels an illusory search for an ill-defined middle ground that could actually demobilize the Democratic leaners and voters who actually drove last year's blue wave.


from Bitecofer herself:

The explanation, of course, is that it was this giant turnout of core constituencies, that either are Democrats or favor Democrats — they’re independents who favor Democrats — and they have a huge turnout explosion. So it's not the same pool of voters changing their minds and voting Democrat after voting Republican because of the issue of health care. It's a whole different pool of voters.

They might have many reasons that they cite, and probably this is not the reason they would cite. But what made them enraged and show up is Trump Inc., the negative partisanship. I don't know why Nancy Pelosi, the DCCC or many of these moderate members are convinced that moderate Republicans crossed over and voted for them. I have the data for some of these districts and the data tells a very different, very clear story: If Republicans voted in huge numbers, they voted for Republicans.


It has to be within a realm of possibility. To illustrate that, in 2018 when we look at the Senate map, Arizona was an R+5 state — that meant it had a partisan advantage for Republicans of about five points. Tennessee was an R+15 state, and of course, as I predicted, Arizona flipped to the Democrats but Tennessee didn't even come close, despite multiple millions of dollars spent by Democrats in that effort.

The second thing that's most significant and influential — and this is totally unique and new — is the percentage of college-educated residents residing in the state or in the district. This is what I said would be unique and new in the Trump era. This was why I was able to look at maps, at these races that in 2018 people saw as toss-ups, and say, "No, no, no, no. These are going to flip."

In this new era that we’re moving into, we have college-educated voters moving towards the Democrats, and white working-class voters moving away from them. That allowed me to look months and months ahead at polling and say, these are the races where Democrats are going to do really well.


My model for 2020 starts off with Democrats at 278 Electoral College votes, and that's a problem for Trump, because of course you need 270 to win. It does that because of my model's prediction, based on turnout and predicted vote share, that Pennsylvania and Michigan will slip back to the Democrats. I'm uncertain about Ohio, but even if Trump wins Ohio, he can't win the other three Midwestern states. Then as you point out I have four tossup states: Arizona, North Carolina, Florida and Iowa. Even if he wins all four of them, the Democrats have already won the election — and the idea that he would win all four is pretty unlikely.

The Democratic leadership — the way they’ve chosen to navigate the Trump impeachment stuff, and certainly the way they talk about their House victories and how to maintain their House majority, it tells me that they’re still living in a understanding of the data that is outdated. If you don't understand how you won, and what the concurrent political data environment is telling you, that is concerning. So I do see a lot of evidence that Democrats don't get this.

If one group of candidates took more liberal issue positions, why did they win over independents?" It seems counterfactual, and the reason is what mattered was turnout. O’Rourke and Abrams carried independents because turnout surged, with different independents showing up to vote, motivated by the targeting strategy deployed by those campaigns, which were run under my suggested model rather than the old playbook that used to work back in the '90s and '80s.

https://www.salon.com/2019/08/17/this-political-scientist-completely-nailed-the-2018-blue-wave-heres-her-2020-forecast/




Here is her 2020 analysis.
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