Red Oak
Red Oak's JournalBernie Sanders's Successful Insurgency
Win or lose, the Democrat has already accelerated a major generational shift within the Democratic party.
“This thing is not going to go away,” insisted Robert Borosage, the co-director of the progressive Campaign for America’s Future. Borosage served as a senior adviser to Jesse Jackson’s landmark 1988 outsider presidential campaign and says the party has “not seen this kind of insurgency, this kind of strength” since then. “It’s even bigger [than Jackson],” Borosage said, “because it’s this younger generation coming into politics and moving with their own energy.”
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But none of that obscures what Sanders has already achieved, and how it may change the Democratic Party. At my request, the veteran electoral analyst Rhodes Cook, publisher of an eponymous political newsletter, compiled figures comparing Sanders’s performance with previous outsider challengers. Those numbers show that Sanders is on track to win more total votes, and a higher percentage of the primary vote, than any insurgent Democrat in the modern primary era.
Through Wisconsin, Cook calculates, Sanders has won about 6.65 million votes across 21 primaries, some 41 percent of all ballots cast. That means Sanders has captured a greater percentage of the total primary vote than such previous insurgents as Howard Dean in 2004 (6 percent), George McGovern in 1972 (25 percent), Jackson in 1988 (29 percent), Gary Hart in 1984 (36 percent), and Ted Kennedy in 1980 (37 percent). In actual primary votes, Sanders has already soared past Dean, McGovern, and Hart and is guaranteed to top Jackson (almost 6.7 million) and Kennedy (just under 7 million) after the April 19 New York primary alone. Measured by the share of available delegates he’s won (nearly two-fifths, including super delegates), Sanders also seems likely to outshine all these predecessors except McGovern, who captured a majority and the nomination. Only President Obama, in his 2008 primary victory, outperformed Sanders on all those fronts, and as a former keynoter at the national party convention who drew support from key party leaders, Obama doesn’t seem perfectly analogous.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/04/sanderss-successful-insurgency/477249/
Sanders Catches Clinton
Bernie has erased a Clinton 20 point lead. Bernie is now +1 from -20 in January.
"Hillary Clinton may have amassed a nearly insurmountable lead in delegates, but rank-and-file Democrats are now virtually split between her and Bernie Sanders over which candidate should be their party’s presidential nominee, according to a new PRRI / The Atlantic poll.
Sanders had the support of 47 percent of Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters while Clinton had 46 percent—a narrow gap that fell within the poll’s 2.5 percent margin of error. The national survey was conducted in the days before the Vermont senator handily defeated the former secretary of state in the Wisconsin primary, and it tracks other polls in the last week that found Sanders erasing Clinton’s edge across the country. In a poll that PRRI conducted in January, Clinton had a 20-point lead."
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/04/a-sanders-surge-in-polling-if-not-delegates/477198/
Bernie get this, Hillary does not: Thank Pampered Political Class for 2016's Angry Electorate
In describing this campaign season as a series of “defining” moments, however, the pundits have gotten the headline right, but the story wrong. The reality is this campaign isn’t about a series of moments over the past 12 months. It’s the byproduct of two decades of neglect and corruption by the ruling duopoly in Washington, D.C. That dereliction of duty has been defined by moments, each of which has left the American people wondering who their leaders really represent.
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Pass a trade agreement that’s going to eliminate a couple million jobs? No worries. A dollop of Trade Adjustment Assistance will solve that problem. A series of such decisions on trade policy, supported by both Democrats and Republicans, left millions of Americans economically dislocated. Those workers do not typically field a half-dozen employment offers from lobbying firms when they need a job—the path open to former members of Congress and their staffs. While free trade has led to lower prices for American consumers, our government has done a terrible job anticipating and planning for the negative effects of globalization on millions of American workers.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/04/07/thank_pampered_political_class_for_2016s_angry_electorate.html
Clinton shifts media tactics to take on Sanders, Trump
Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton is adopting a more aggressive media strategy as she readies for a primary showdown in New York with rival Bernie Sanders and a possible general election battle with Republican front-runner Donald Trump.
The new approach was taking shape before Clinton’s loss to Sanders in Wisconsin — the Vermont senator's sixth win in the last seven state races — and was highlighted in a round of calls Clinton made on Wednesday morning to cable news shows.
In an interview with MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” Clinton pointed to the New York Daily News’s front page, a tabloid that had the blaring headline “Bernie’s Sandy Hook Shame” on Wednesday.
In the story, the daughter of the school principal killed in the Sandy Hook shootings criticizes Sanders for opposing an effort to allow mass shooting victims to sue gun manufacturers.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/275334-clinton-shifts-media-tactics-to-take-on-sanders-trump
Politicizing Sandy Hook? That's going to go over well, Hillary.
Sanders wins in Wisconsin
Tuesday's victory by Sanders gives his presidential campaign further momentum after a series of wins over Democrat Hillary Clinton.
He will also get a solid boost heading into the delegate-rich New York primary on April 19.
Sanders told a Wyoming audience on Tuesday night that he thinks his recent momentum could translate into more superdelegates, who are free to support whichever candidate regardless of who wins their state, flocking to his campaign.
"I think a lot of these superdelegates are going to be saying which candidate has the momentum, which one brings out huge numbers," Sanders said.
Heading into Tuesday's contest, polls showed Sanders ahead by a slim margin. And one of the state's top pollsters, Charles Franklin, who runs the Marquette Law School poll, projected Sanders to win by 4 percentage points.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/dem-primaries/275263-sanders-beats-clinton-in-wisconsin
Sanders wins in Wisconsin, keeping alive his improbable bid for the nomination
Sanders held a boisterous rally Tuesday night in Wyoming, the site of Democratic caucuses Saturday. Screams erupted and the crowd broke into chants of “Bernie! Bernie! Bernie!” in an auditorium at the University of Wyoming in Laramie when Sanders shared the news that the networks had called Wisconsin for him.
“If we wake up the American people, and working people and middle-class people and senior citizens and young people begin to stand up and fight back and come out and vote in large numbers, there is nothing that we cannot accomplish,” he said.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bernie-sanders-wins-wisconsins-democratic-primary/2016/04/05/68f56a2e-fa9f-11e5-886f-a037dba38301_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_wisconsindems-1110pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
Five thirty eight list of polls:
March 14-16 Hillary up by 48%
March 29th - April 1st - Hillary up by 10%
It's the math!
Clinton Can’t Get to New York Fast Enough After New Sanders Win
"As the last ballots were cast in Wisconsin, Clinton was meeting with 60 donors at a campaign fundraiser in New York. Her campaign is hosting a news conference in the Bronx on Wednesday morning with Democratic borough officials and Latino leaders who support her."
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-04-06/clinton-can-t-get-to-new-york-fast-enough-after-new-sanders-win
It comes down to New York.
Can you imagine Senator Clinton getting the nomination and NOT winning her self-proclaimed home state?
Let's follow the new Bernie attacks here
He doesn't know how to use the subway
He doesn't know how to break up the big banks
He is too pro guns
The math (oh, the math)
Let's see what camp weathervane adds this week as the mud machine spins up
Would love to hear from New Yorkers
Given that Hillary was a Senator from New York through expedient political triangulation, she also spent her formative years in Illinois, Massachusetts and Arkansas.
Do the people of New York consider her one of their own or is she considered a carpetbagger?
From Websters Dictionary:
Carpetbagger - b. a political candidate who runs for office in a place where he or she has lived only for a short time
In August, Hillary had a 54% lead over Bernie Sanders
In April, Bernie beats her by over 11%.
That is a huge swing.
What happened Hillary?
Trust issues?
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