March 24, 2016

Playing with Delegate Math

http://demrace.com/?share=bWkFYiQG

I created a scenario where Clinton doesn't do any better than tie any future contest, Bernie sweeps this weekend by greater margins than I expect, and he does better in the future in many states than I expect.

He still walks into the convention 13 delegates behind Clinton.

We should note that I don't expect Clinton to lose or tie in NY, PA, MD, DE, or NJ. I don't expect Sanders to have landslides in most states where I gave him a landslide. This is simply an absolute worst case given present events.

Make your own and share them here!

March 2, 2016

538 Delegate Targets (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

Clinton is now at 113% of her target (while Trump is at 112% of his), and a current delegate count of 596 total.

What made me smile is that, if you look ahead to March fifth, Clinton would be ahead of her target at the end of the day if she didn't receive a single delegate during those contests.

She would still be even with her target if she didn't receive a single delegate on March 6th, although she'd fall behind on March 8th.

Clinton must be feeling very, very positive this morning. She's actually picked up a four state all-delegate advantage. Smaller states, admittedly, but still.

March 1, 2016

OK Exit Polls (Hillary Clinton Group)

http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2016/primaries/democrat/oklahoma/exit/

It's quite early, and exit polls always stink (remember Nevada?) but these are looking very good for Clinton!

At best, it's an interesting and possibly useful data point. I wouldn't make too much hay of it just yet.

March 1, 2016

American Samoa Up First! (Hillary Clinton Group)

American Samoa's caucus will be held at 2 PM Eastern time and will award 6 pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

The caucus is quite small (AS only has about 55,000 residents), low key, held at a single hotel, and should report in fairly quickly. Expect results by 4 to 5 PM.

Hillary Clinton won the AS caucus in 2008, 57 to 43. There were 285 caucus-goers in 2008 (this is not a misprint).