Shoulders of Giants
Shoulders of Giants's JournalOne potential downside if Trump runs third party if he loses a brokered convention.
Most people think its a good thing for Democrats if Trump runs third party, because it will almost certainly split the Republican vote and guarantee a Democratic victory for the president. That is certainly true, but there is a downside that most don't think about. If Trump ran third party, it would probably make Republican voter turnout higher than usual as a whole. The wingnuts would turn up to vote for Trump. The moderates would turn up to vote for whoever their official nominee would be. However, both would probably vote for Republicans for the House, Senate, Governors, and local elections. We Democrats on the other hand would only have one candidate on the ballot to encourage turnout, while they have two. Trump running third party may be great for the presidency, but horrible for every single other race on the ballot. What does everyone think of this?
Republicans are in a lose-lose situation.
There are currently two possibilities for the Republicans in regards to the presidential primary.
1.Trump gets over 50% of the delegates and there is no brokered convention. They then have the candidate who has the highest unfavorability rating of all time at the top of their ticket. Therefore, their odds of winning are low.
2.Trump does not get 50% percent of the delegates, but still wins a plurality, but not majority. There is a brokered convention and the party insiders choose someone they think is more electable. Donald Trump gets mad, either runs third party or tells people not to vote for the Republican. He will say the party insiders screwed him over, despite the fact that he got more votes than any other candidate. There is a major rift in the Republican party, making it very hard for them to win.
I don't know which of these two things will happen, but both of these options aren't good for them. I don't really see how Republicans can win this year, regardless of if there is a brokered convention this year or not.
Profile Information
Member since: Sat Jan 4, 2014, 07:10 PMNumber of posts: 370
