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Algernon Moncrieff

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Member since: Sat Apr 19, 2014, 11:49 PM
Number of posts: 5,047

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NY Mag: Surging in Polls, Elizabeth Warren Now Has a Path to the Nomination

(This is also posted in the Warren group, of which I am not currently a member. Note also this is based on information before this weekend's appearances in Iowa)

Recent polls have clearly indicated that Warren is going places. The RealClearPolitics national polling averages show her as basically tied with Bernie Sanders for second place with Joe Biden’s lead narrowing. The two most recent national polls (from Quinnipiac and Economist–You Gov) place her seven and five points, respectively, ahead of Sanders. Just as important, she’s gaining strength in the early states. A new Monmouth poll from Iowa places her ten points ahead of Bernie, and just nine points behind Biden, in a state where everyone concedes she has the best organization. In New Hampshire polls, where Biden’s early lead was less formidable, she’s nipping at Sanders’s heels. Warren is in a similar position in Nevada (which holds its caucuses 11 days after the New Hampshire primary), where Politico reported yesterday that she has already built a “monster” of an organization.

Warren is also clearly making gains in her implicit rivalry with her friend and ally Bernie Sanders for the affections of self-consciously progressive voters, even as she maintains some potential as a party-unifying figure that Bernie may lack thanks to leftover bad memories of his 2016 campaign. In that recent national Quinnipiac survey, she trounced Sanders among “very liberal” voters and actually led him among those under the age of 35.

Whether or not you think Sanders is losing strength (there’s evidence pointing in both directions on that proposition), it is clear that Warren is benefiting from the erosion in Kamala Harris’s support, which probably reflects both the dissipation of the buzz she commanded after the first round of debates and her widely panned performance in the second. Harris’s national polling average has dropped from 15 to 8 percent in the last month. And perhaps just as important, she’s showing little or no progress in taking away Joe Biden’s overpowering position among African-American voters, central to the Obama Redux strategy she is relying on. Quinnipiac gives her just one percent of the black vote nationally. A somewhat older Monmouth survey of South Carolina showed Harris with 12 percent of African-American support in what for her is a key state, where a majority of Democratic primary voters are black — but Joe Biden had 51 percent.

Put all that together with the inability of any candidates outside the Big Four of Biden, Warren, Sanders, and Harris to gain any momentum at all, and for the first time you can clearly see a plausible path to the nomination for Warren.

Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Sun Aug 11, 2019, 06:17 PM (9 replies)

So I'm going to the Iowa State Fair tomorrow.

Saturday, Aug. 10

9 a.m.: Washington Gov. Jay Inslee
10:30 a.m.: Sen. Kamala Harris
11:15 a.m.: Rep. Tim Ryan
12:45 p.m.: Sen. Amy Klobuchar
1:30 p.m.: Former Rep. Joe Sestak
2:15 p.m.: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand
3 p.m.: Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper
3:45 p.m.: Sen. Elizabeth Warren
4:30 p.m.: Sen. Cory Booker

...and (of course) 69 food items on a stick, as well as the legendary Butter Cow.

Should be fun!
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Fri Aug 9, 2019, 09:02 PM (30 replies)

I've been out since May. Did I miss anything?

Any big retirements from DU? Skinner still running the joint?
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Sun Aug 4, 2019, 07:04 PM (6 replies)

Is Biden the last big entry into the Democratic primaries?

At this point, is there anyone else out there likely to run?
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Thu Apr 25, 2019, 12:36 AM (2 replies)

Brexit: No majority for any options after MPs' votes

Source: BBC

How MPs voted
Confirmatory referendum - For: 268 Against: 295
Customs union - For: 264 Against: 272
Labour's Brexit plan - For: 237 Against: 307
Common Market 2.0 - For: 188 Against: 283
Revoking Article to avoid no deal - For: 184 Against: 293
No-deal exit on 12 April - For: 160 Against: 400
Malthouse Plan B - For: 139 Against: 422
EFTA and EEA membership - For: 65 Against: 377
The proposal which came closest to commanding majority support was a cross-party plan - tabled by former Conservative chancellor Ken Clarke - for the whole of the UK to join a new customs union with the EU to ensure tariff-free trade after the UK's exit.

Its supporters included five Conservative ministers: Mark Field, Stephen Hammond, Margot James, Anne Milton and Rory Stewart.

All Conservative MPs - excluding cabinet ministers - were given a free vote, meaning they were not ordered to vote in a certain way.

Eight Conservatives voted for a referendum to endorse the deal, the proposal which secured the most affirmative votes. Labour controversially whipped its MPs to back the proposal but 10 shadow ministers abstained and Melanie Onn quit her job to vote against.

Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47728333

Hard Brexit is a domino that could unleash very unintended economic consequences.
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Wed Mar 27, 2019, 08:51 PM (8 replies)

Mueller Hot Take 12,000,006

1) Ultimately, this reminds me of Iran Contra. Prosecutors were able (for a time, anyway) to get North, Poindexter, and McFarland -- but could never tie the funneling of money to the Contras to President Regan.

2) I agree that the firing of Comey and the "Russia if you're listening.." campaign speech tend to undercut the report's conclusion, but what do I know?

3) We still don't know what SDNY will conclude.

4) Let's be real: it's a big win for Trump. It will likely give him a popularity boost (we'll know in about a week), and (in the minds of many) it supports his assertion that this has been a witchhunt, This means it is not a good day for America or its Constitution. Trump will now feel emboldened to attack the media and attempt to suppress critics -- especially the late night hosts and SNL. It does not bode well for 2020.

5) Let's also be real: Americans vote their pocketbooks. So far, the Trump tax reforms have been unpopular with average Americans, while at the same time raising the deficit. Meanwhile, there are indicators that a recession is looming.

6) We all need to keep resisting and stay woke. There are other battles, other issues, and other days. Move on to those.
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Sun Mar 24, 2019, 03:44 PM (3 replies)

11-foot wall of water: One dam breaks, three counties suffer

Lincoln Journal Star

Earlier, the Niobrara had been running at 5 or 6 feet of gauge height. After it broke through the dam, it measured nearly 17.5 feet. It wasn’t a gradual increase, either.

“It started a really fast rise,” he said. “There was an 11-foot wave that rolled through.”

And in its wake, three Nebraska counties would learn how that much moving water can become immediately destructive and potentially deadly. How it can cause instant pain and long-term suffering. How it can harm not only those in its path, but those living miles away.

First, the wave swept away a section of U.S. 281, a nearby riverside saloon and at least one home, possibly occupied. And it continued downstream, barreling toward the town of Niobrara — and its mouth at the Missouri River — about 40 miles away.
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Sun Mar 17, 2019, 10:15 AM (48 replies)

I want to tell all of you exactly why I'm upset Mark Kelly is running for AZ Senate in 2020

I wanted him to run for President!

Mark Kelly-US Senate 2020

Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Tue Feb 12, 2019, 09:12 PM (34 replies)

MSNBC: What is Trump prepared to offer in exchange for a border wall?


Of course, Trump could try a more conventional approach to negotiating, in which he offered something tangible that Democrats want in exchange for what he wants. In fact, some on the right are concerned the president may eventually do exactly that. The New York Times published a quote the other day that stood out for me:

“I’ve always thought it created a danger that he would trade almost anything in order to get the wall – I think that’s still a potential danger,” said Mark Krikorian, the executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies, a group that argues for less immigration. “I’m still worried about that now.”

From a conservative perspective, those concerns are well grounded. Democrats really don’t want to spend billions of taxpayer dollars on a giant, ineffective border wall, so if Trump were try to come up with an offer designed to entice them, he’d have to propose something that would be (a) enormous; and (b) wildly unpopular among Republicans.

And this got me thinking: what exactly would it take? What would a borderline-desperate president put on the table to sway Democrats?

We offered Wall for Clean DACA in 2017 and he balked. I doubt he has anything else we want.
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Sun Jan 13, 2019, 12:50 PM (31 replies)

WaPo: How would you narrow the 2020 Democratic field?

Democratic voters have no shortage of choices as the 2020 presidential primaries draw nearer. More than three dozen politicians, former officials and political outsiders have considered throwing their hats into the ring, with at least 20 likely to commit by the first primary debate in 2019.

They all bring different visions of what the party needs. Is it generational change, a history-making barrier breaker, a centrist with a proven ability to win Trump voters or a military veteran?

But the decision is not up to them. For the voters who will decide, here is a quick guide to help with understanding the choices ahead.

Article includes fun interactive chart
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Tue Jan 8, 2019, 07:49 AM (21 replies)
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