In 2016, months of national polls confidently showed Hillary Clinton ahead, and set many Americans up for a shock on Election Night, when the Electoral College tilted decisively in Trump’s favor. Two pollsters who weren’t blindsided by this are Arie Kapteyn and Robert Cahaly. Kapteyn, a Dutch economist who leads the USC’s Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, oversaw the USC/Los Angeles Times poll that gave Trump a 3-point lead heading into election day—which, Kapteyn notes, was wrong: Clinton won the popular vote by 2 points. Cahaly, a Republican pollster with the Trafalgar Group, had preelection surveys that showed Trump nudging out Clinton in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida and North Carolina—all of which he won.


This year, both men believe that polls could again be undercounting Trump’s support. The reason is “shy” Trump voters—people reluctant to share their opinions for fear of being judged. Though the “shy voter” idea is thrown around a lot by both Trump supporters and Democratic skeptics, Kapteyn and Cahaly have specific insights into why, and how, Trump support might be going undetected.

For Cahaly, those votes are likely to make the difference again. “There’s a lot of hidden Trump votes out there,” he says. “Will Biden win the popular vote? Probably. I’m not even debating that. But I think Trump is likely to have an Electoral College victory.”

As an illustration, Kapteyn described what his team at USC sees in its polls. Beyond simply asking voters whether they support Biden or Trump, USC asks a “social-circle” question—“Who do you think your friends and neighbors will vote for?”—which some researchers believe makes it easier for people to share their true opinions without fear of being judged for their views.

Stephen Miller, the man responsible for family separations and all of Trump’s cruel immigration policies, is said to have a slew of even more horrific immigration policies ready to go if Trump wins a second term. He’s been saving certain initiatives for a second term because they are too politically unpopular to be viable during Trump’s first term. On Miller’s second term wishlist: completely eliminating birthright citizenship, making the citizenship test more difficult to pass, ending Temporary Protected Status, and slashing refugee admissions down to zero.

It’s terrifying to imagine what other horrors Trump might unleash with Stephen Miller by his side — a man who, by the way, has documented ties to and sympathies for white nationalism but still remains in his powerful position. The stakes couldn’t be higher. We cannot afford another four years of these monsters. We have four days left to send them packing for good.

Large majorities of Californians are worried that many Americans will not respect the outcome of the Nov. 3 presidential election — and that the conflicts could lead to violence, according to a new poll by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS).

In all, 40% of the likely voters surveyed in the Berkeley IGS Poll doubt the election will be conducted fairly. Doubts are especially strong among supporters of President Donald Trump, with 56% questioning whether the election will be fair and 78% expressing less confidence in voting by mail.

“The lack of public confidence that all votes will be counted and that both parties will respect the election outcome are worrisome signs of a political system that is under unusual stress,” said Eric Schickler, a Berkeley political scientist and co-director of IGS.

Concern about legitimacy and the post-election aftermath were widespread among poll respondents. In all, 87% of voters expressed worry that the outcome will not be accepted by other voters. And 88% said violence is somewhat or very likely in the event of disputes about accuracy of the vote.

The City of Milwaukee has agreed in principle to pay $4 million to the family of a man killed by a police officer in 2016, setting off days of demonstrations and destruction in the Sherman Park area.

City Attorney Tearman Spencer asked that the proposed settlement be sent to the city's finance and personnel committee for consideration next week. The full Common Council would have to approve borrowing money to pay the settlement.

Just last month, the city and attorneys for Sylville Smith's estate had told a federal judge that a second round of mediation had not been successful, and the case was set for trial in December. The apparent settlement was not reflected in the court record Friday morning.

David Owens, one of the family's attorneys with Loevy & Loevy of Chicago, said his clients hope the city acts quickly on Spencer's recommendation to settle the case. But because the Common Council could still reject it, Owens said his firm will continue to prepare for trial.

Where to Drop Your Absentee Ballot
In Tarrant County, absentee ballots can be dropped off in person at the Tarrant County Elections Administration office at 2700 Premier Street, during regular business hours. The ballot may also be hand-delivered on Election Day between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. You may only hand-deliver your own envelope and not for another individual and you must bring ID. Read more here.

In Dallas County, absentee ballots can be dropped off at the Early Voting Clerk's Office at 1520 Round Table Drive. A full schedule, with extended hours, is available on DallasCountyVotes.org. You may only hand-deliver your own envelope and not for another individual and you must bring ID.

In Denton County, absentee ballots can be dropped off at the Early Voting Clerk's Office at 701 Kimberly Drive. Ballots may be hand-delivered during regular business hours. You may only hand-deliver your own envelope and not for another individual and you must bring ID. Read more here.

In Collin County, absentee ballots can be dropped off at the Elections Department at 2010 Redbud Boulevard during regular business hours. More information can be found here. You may only hand-deliver your own envelope and not for another individual and you must bring ID.

National Baseball Hall of Famer and Omaha native Bob Gibson died Friday, according to a report from the St. Louis Post Dispatch.

He was 84-years-old.

There is one absolute truth about Trump: He is a consistent, absolute, unrelenting, fearless, and professional liar. A serial liar. A factually proven liar. How many lies now has the Washington Post proven in these four years? 25,000? A lie at least twice during every waking hour? Think of all the bad people you’ve known in your life. Even the worst ones you couldn’t say that about.

So why on earth would we believe him today? Has he earned your trust now? No. Yet, we’re decent enough to not want him to be sick, to wish him well, and maybe just this once give him the benefit of the doubt because why would he lie about this?

That’s not the question. The question we — and yes, I mean you, too, the media — the only question we really need to be asking is this: Why would Trump all of a sudden just start telling the truth?

All of you, my friends, have been saying for four years, “Trump’s a liar! Trump is a liar!” Why would you believe him now? He very well may have COVID-19. In fact, let’s assume he does. Of course he has it! Does that make him not Trump? I’m certain Mussolini came down with the flu one time. Pinochet and Franco would catch a cold every now and then. Margaret Thatcher must have had a migraine or two. None of them suddenly became nice or did good things - or started telling the truth - because they got sick. Jesse Helms with a runny nose was still Jesse Helms.

But Trump has a history of lying about his health. His longtime New York doctor, Dr. Bornstein, admitted a few years ago that Trump dictated his perfect “doctor’s letter” during the 2016 campaign. Then there was the White House doctor who said Trump could live “200 years!” What about his lying about that emergency trip to Walter Reed “to complete his physical?” Trump also has a history of lying about his opponents’ health (like when Hillary fell ill at the 9/11 remembrance ceremony, or what he’s now been saying about Biden’s health).

So we must be skeptical. We must always remain skeptical when it comes to Trump. He may have it. But it’s also possible he’s lying. That’s just a fact.

But why would he lie about this? What would he have to gain? I mean, it looks bad that he’s called it a hoax for seven months, and he totally mismanaged the government response — and now he has it? Doesn’t it look terrible that he’s spent months downplaying wearing masks, dismissing social distancing, holding large rallies filled with elderly, at-risk supporters and even killing his own supporters like Herman Cain? And doesn’t this go against his brand of always projecting (and exaggerating) his own strength, his health, his genetics, his virility? Yes. This is all true. He would not want to admit he‘s come down with a hoax.

But — he’s losing the election. And he knows it. It’s not 2016. He was hated in 2016, but he’s hated even more now. Millions of Americans are ON FIRE and on the verge of serving him up a major league ass-whooping and a record landslide defeat.

So he needs - badly - to totally change the conversation about this campaign.

And he just has.

Democrats, liberals, the media and others have always been wrong to simply treat him as a buffoon and a dummy and a jackass. Yes, he is all those things. But he’s also canny. He’s clever. He outfoxed Comey. He outfoxed Mueller. He outfoxed 20 Republicans in the GOP primary and then did the same to the Democrats, winning the White House despite receiving fewer votes than his opponent. He’s an evil genius and I raise the possibility of him lying about having COVID-19 to prepare us and counteract his game. He knows being sick tends to gain one sympathy. He’s not above weaponizing this.

He’s been lying about how soon a vaccine will be ready. What better way to hammer home that lie then by directing a saga in the final weeks before the election that culminates in the release of this “vaccine.”

The NY Times tax story was horrible for him. As was The Atlantic story about him calling American troops losers and suckers. There are a dozen more of these stories coming in October. Just last night, The New Yorker detailed how his campaign finance director (and Don Jr’s girlfriend) was fired from Fox News for....well...behaving like a typical Fox News host by sexually harassing her assistant and forcing Fox to pay a $4 million settlement to that assistant due to her behavior. And also, last night, there was CNN playing an audio recording of Melania talking shit about children separated from their parents at the border — AND talking shit about Christmas. Christmas!

These stories are about to be a daily occurrence. However, they may get less airtime and be less damaging since Trump and FLOTUS are now “sick” and supposed to be in our thoughts and prayers.

But most dangerously, HE MAY USE THIS TO PUSH FOR DELAYING/POSTPONING THE ELECTION. The constitution does not allow for this, but he doesn’t give a f*ck about the constitution. He and his thug Attorney General Barr have no shame and will stop at nothing to stay in power. He may even use this as an excuse for losing.

Then there’s this:

He may use his Covid as a pretext to drop out of the race and move Pence to the top of the ticket. Pence would temporarily become President, and then Pence could pre-emptively pardon Trump for all of his crimes.

Again, though, he may have COVID. He probably does. But never, ever, ever take him at his word and never, ever, ever underestimate his survival skills or the depths of his deception or his evil.

What can YOU do today? Make your plan to vote and stick to it. Question everything. And if you and I are finally convinced he has it, do NOT sit silent as he schemes how to use this illness for his benefit.

Finally, on a personal note: Stay alive Mr. President. Your exit from public life must happen in the right and decent way. You have many years to live. You have a child to raise. Grandchildren who need you. A base that loves you. And the families of nearly the quarter-million dead who might be alive today had you done your job, had you cared, had you not played politics with people's lives. Over 200,000 lost souls — and YOU KNEW! You told Woodward in February it was a plague. 200,000 dead because of decisions you made, because you denigrated science and ignored the doctors.

I’m certain you’re listening to them now.

Covid must not remove you. That’s our job. With a pen and a ballot.