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PatrickforO

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Gender: Do not display
Hometown: Not disclosed
Home country: USA
Current location: Not disclosed
Member since: Mon Apr 28, 2014, 06:28 PM
Number of posts: 9,471

About Me

Counselor, economist and public servant.

Journal Archives

I'M NEW TO THE DELEGATE MATH, SO HELP ME OUT HERE. IT SEEMS TO ME:

Clinton's delegate lead (268) just isn't that large. It is substantial, but not insurmountable. According to Google's count, https://www.google.com/#q=democratic+primary+election+results&eob=m.09c7w0/D/3/short/m.09c7w0/, the pledged delegate count is Clinton = 1,243 and Sanders = 975.

So as mentioned above, Clinton has a lead of 268 delegates. And, since a candidate needs 2,383 delegates to win the nomination, excluding super delegates, Clinton has about 52% of the delegates she needs, while Sanders has 41%.

(Since the 714 'super delegates' will likely vote the way the wind is blowing as they did in 08 when Clinton's commanding super delegate lead evaporated because it had become clear the majority of Dems wanted Obama, I'm am excluding them for now in this analysis.)

OK...so now, out of 4,051 total pledged delegates, 2,218 are taken (1,243 + 975 = 2,218). This means there are still 1,833 unclaimed pledged delegates left.

So...to win with 2,383 delegates, if he can't turn around ANY of the super delegates, Sanders needs to win about 76.8% (1,408) of those pledged delegates in order to win, again WITHOUT the super delegates. However, if he keeps winning states and winning big in some, Clinton's commanding super delegate lead may shrink by say, half?

Since there are 714 super delegates, if we take 350 of those off the table for her, and give them to Bernie, then he hypothetically only needs to win 57% of the remaining pledged delegates, a much more 'do-able' prospect, and one which the Clinton campaign is no doubt aware of, and concerned about.

Because I'll tell you what...if it looks that close, I'm gonna be sure as heck calling up the super delegates in my state and pressuring them on behalf of Bernie.

My conclusion: Bernie can still win the nomination if we all work hard for him.

OK, SO THOSE OF YOU MORE EXPERIENCED AT COUNTING THESE DELEGATES, HOW DID I DO? AM I RIGHT?

HuffPo: How Trump campaign could evolve into organized violence in six steps.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/how-trump-campaign-could-evolve-into-organized-violence_us_56e85c3ce4b0b25c91838893

I've been very concerned, as I know many of you have, about the ascendancy of Donald Trump as the 2016 GOP front runner. For those who have viewed this with horror, it is apparent that the Republican party and its propaganda organs, Fox 'news' and hate-talk radio, brought this on themselves.

Unfortunately we will also have to suffer, not merely being nickel and dimed by the capitalist parasites, who are the real enemy of the American people, but from the fear of organized domestic terror.

My father fought in the Second World War, and on the rare occasions he would talk about it, he clearly communicated what a terrible undertaking it was. It cost humanity 80 million lives and over a decade of suffering to get rid of the fascists last time. Surely we won't allow this hate-filled and ignorant movement to rise again?

This article is a good read, for all that it is chilling.

I have served on a bunch of juries here at DU and generally think this is a good system.

However, for about the last 6 or 8 times I've been asked to serve, I click on take me there I know what I'm doing, and get this:

Thank you for choosing to serve. Unfortunately, that Jury is full.
Our community relies on people like you to help maintain a certain level of civil discourse, and we very much appreciate your willingness to spend some time serving on a Jury. Unfortunately, there was a glitch with our software and too many people were asked to serve on this Jury. We apologize for the inconvenience. We hope to fix this problem soon.

You remain eligible to serve on a Jury, and could be asked again at any time. When that happens, we hope that you will choose to serve again at that time. (Hopefully next time our software will not let you down.)

Thank you for your time, and thank you for your understanding.


Are any of the rest of you getting this message? Just wondering...

Just recused myself from a jury because it was on a post in a room from which

I've been banned. I started off with my default, which is Leave It, but then read the whole thread and discovered that it was in the Hillary room. I did not think it fair that I, who have been banned from that room, should decide on a post there.

Here's a REALLY SCARY pic of a Trump rally. Don't know if this has been posted, but it made

the little hairs on the back of my neck rise and a chill go down my spine.

http://twitter.com/wpjenna/status/706227458777993216/photo/1

Looks like they are saying 'Heil!'

TPP - "This trade deal is not about trade. It's about the transfer of power from people to

big business"

A new study published by York University's Osgoode Hall Law School in Toronto has concluded that

"the beneficiaries of ISDS ... have overwhelmingly been companies with more than $1 billion per year in annual revenue - especially extra-large companies with more than $10 billion - and individuals with more than $100 million in net wealth."

Here's the complete HuffPo article with link to the actual study.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rj-eskow/new-study-confirms-privat_b_9348238.html

Robert Reich: An Open Letter to the Republican Establishment

I've always liked Reich, and now here's an open letter he has penned to Wall Street and the rest of the capitalist overlords.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-reich/an-open-letter-to-the-rep_1_b_9344914.html

Here's a couple of excerpts:

"You are the captains of American industry, the titans of Wall Street, and the billionaires who for decades have been the backbone of the Republican Party.

You've invested your millions in the GOP in order to get lower taxes, wider tax loopholes, bigger subsidies, more generous bailouts, less regulation, lengthier patents and copyrights and stronger market power allowing you to raise prices, weaker unions and bigger trade deals allowing you outsource abroad to reduce wages, easier bankruptcy for you but harder bankruptcy for homeowners and student debtors, and judges who will let you to engage in insider trading and who won't prosecute you for white-collar crimes.

All of which have made you enormously wealthy. Congratulations.

But I have some disturbing news for you. You're paying a big price -- and about to pay far more."

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