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Gender: Male
Hometown: virginia
Member since: Sun Jun 1, 2014, 06:32 PM
Number of posts: 5,683

Journal Archives

flags for sale..

on msnbc they showed a trumper stand with "flags for sale" . I bet they are being heavily discounted.

now only 42k behind in PA.

with 10 % left to report.

stress is real.

Im pretty sure Joe will take it now. I had not realized how stressfull this is has been since yesterday until I looked at my vitals. I have a garmin watch which logs my heart rate constantly. My resting heart beat has gone from 64 on average to low 90's. It did not drop much overnight..

Hopefully once its all said and done I will achieve peace..

Daily walk in the woods.

I am fortunate to have my property backing the wilderness. Every day I hike 8 to 9 miles. It's a great way to relax.

I saw wild turkeys running across this area. I could not get my phone out to snap it before they were gone in a flurry of cackles.

Near this water hole I can smell the strong musky scent of bucks in rut.

After the rain the other day a turtle was making its way on the trail.

Is not that an interesting arrangement of mushrooms and flowers ?

Even after we throw Trump out our country's reputation will be permanently

damaged. This has shown to the world that our electoral system is so flawed that a madman like Trump can be elected. Our laws and institutions so fragile they can be corrupted by said wannabee dictators. Our treaties, agreements with other countries can be canceled on a whim. Our word can not be trusted. Why enter a deal with the US if the next president can arbitrarly cancel it ?
After Joe Biden takes over and we retake the senate, we can address some of it but a permanent fix will require drastic changes to our instititions, the power of the presidency and the system of check and balances.

what are you doing the days after nov 3rd?

I think I am going to take time off from work. Either I will be celebrating and too hyped to concentrate at work or enraged and plotting my exhile to europe.

Texas looks like a real possibility.

Given that nearly 9 millions votes were cast and they expect only 1 or 2 millions more on election day, reaching 11 millions total.

If the democrats had the advantage during early voting (lots of young people voted, many first time voters. etc..) it will be very hard for Trump to make that up on election day.

for example, say it was 55-45 on early ballots and 9/11 =80 percent already voted then on election day, in order to reach 50% +1 vote, Joe Biden would only need

(0.5-0.8*0.55)/(1-0.8)=27.5 percent to make it above 50 percent and win.

Even with 51/49 early vote , Biden would only need 45 % on election day.

Roughly, each early vote is worth 4 times the nov 3rd vote (if early vote proportion is 80 %).

its hilarious how pundits at the boards are twisting themselves

into a pretzel trying to come up with scenarios for Trump to win. True on both cnn and msnbc. instead of objectively analysing the race and maybe discuss why they think polls are innacurate they are like lets give Trump this state and that one for the sake of argument and then maybe one congressional district there. oh look, thats 270.

its fine to discuss possible paths but i feel they are not putting into context how likely or not some of these are. They are presented on the same footing as the other more probable ones and result in people freaking out.

effect of early votes on election day.

So I did the math. Here is the formula.

BV = BV1xEV + (1-EV)xBV2
where BV is Biden's fraction of votes ( we want 0.5 or more)
BV1 is Biden's fraction for early votes
BV2 is Biden's fraction for election day votes
EV is fraction of early votes.

So for example, 20 percent of early votes ( EV=0.2)
if Biden wins early vote by 2/3( as it was reported) , BV1=0.66.

it follows than to reach BV=0.5 he would only need

BV2=(0.5-.20.66)/(1-0.2) = 0.458 on election day.
In other words Trump would need to win 54-46 on election day.

Of course its just capturing the effect of early votes , not the electoral college.

You can however apply this reasoning to many states . Some have a huge percentage of vote by mail so its an interesting thing.

on EDIT:
Right now, 6 millions early votes have been cast which already is good for one full percentage point on election day.

Hopefully we keep banking them as much as possible.

Just received my copy of undaunted.

John Brennan's book. Very interesting so far. Did you know that the same day he had to go to Trump tower to brief him he later attended his father funeral ? The description of that meeting is fascinating. Trump was not acting as an idiot, rather he was attentive and asking probing questions to try to find the source of the human intelligence. As Brennan put it, exactly like a foreign intelligence actor would do.
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