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tgards79

Profile Information

Member since: Thu Aug 7, 2014, 09:37 AM
Number of posts: 1,254

About Me

My blog: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/

Journal Archives

BTRTN: State of the "Race" (The Political One, not the Race to Contain Covid-19)

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/03/btrtn-state-of-race-political-one-not.html

"The coronavirus essentially has accomplished the impossible, shutting down the world as we know it. Our global community has shrunk to fit within our four walls; whole swaths of our lives have been eliminated, while routine tasks (such as acquiring food) have become outsized events, requiring meticulous planning. Massive entities such as United Airlines and Carnival Cruise Lines suddenly find no demand for their products, while others that cater to the shut-in life, like Instacart and Zoom, are soaring.

And what of the presidential race, that quadrennial spectacle? Yes, it is still underway, in near-subterranean fashion. Our purpose here is to give you an update, because it is pretty hard to tell what is going on if you donít search carefully. Campaign coverage, if not non-existent, has been relegated to the final minutes of any news or commentary show at best, the middle pages of the newspaper, and "below the fold" of any website.

So let us provide an update covering five subjects: how the campaigns are being run; the delegate count; the primary schedule, such as it is right now; the head-to-head polls; and, finally, for sport, the state of the Democratic veepstakes. Plus, a brief section on Andrew Cuomo..."

BTRTN: Why the Coronavirus Numbers Scare Me


http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/03/btrtn-why-coronavirus-numbers-scare-me.html

Letís look at the trend in Italy. Italy, as you know from the headlines, is having a terrible time with the coronavirus. But looking at this chart, you can see that our trend is right with Italy -- just about eleven days behind them. Their growth rate is in the 20%+ range, and they are up to more than 15,000 cases.

Rates of change persist until something happens to slow them down. And the Italian government basically shut down the entire country three days ago. All shops in the entire country have been shut down by the Italian government, with the exception of supermarkets, pharmacies and a few others. They had already banned travel within the country (except for work or health reasons), and shut down all the schools. (Spain and France just announced, minutes ago, that they are taking similar steps.)

We have not taken any actions remotely resembling that Ė in fact we have taken little federal action at all within our borders; almost all of our shutdowns have been done voluntarily on a local basis by governors, mayors, or businesses (such as the NBA)....
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BTRTN: Why the Coronavirus Numbers Scare Me

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/03/btrtn-why-coronavirus-numbers-scare-me.html

Letís look at the trend in Italy. Italy, as you know from the headlines, is having a terrible time with the coronavirus. But looking at this chart, you can see that our trend is right with Italy -- just about eleven days behind them. Their growth rate is in the 20%+ range, and they are up to more than 15,000 cases.

Rates of change persist until something happens to slow them down. And the Italian government basically shut down the entire country three days ago. All shops in the entire country have been shut down by the Italian government, with the exception of supermarkets, pharmacies and a few others. They had already banned travel within the country (except for work or health reasons), and shut down all the schools. (Spain and France just announced, minutes ago, that they are taking similar steps.)

We have not taken any actions remotely resembling that Ė in fact we have taken little federal action at all within our borders; almost all of our shutdowns have been done voluntarily on a local basis by governors, mayors, or businesses (such as the NBA)....

Final BTRTN predictions for March 10 primaries

Here are their final...Biden sweep, lively read:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/03/btrtn-march-10-primaries-previews-is.html

"We begin with Not-Quite-Super-Tuesday, tomorrow, with six primaries. A total of 352 pledged delegates are at stake, with Michigan (125) the largest prize, followed by Washington (89), Missouri (68), Mississippi (36) and Idaho (20), North Dakota (14).

Biden heads into the March 10 primaries with 664 delegates to 573 for Sanders. (There still remain about 100 delegates that have yet to be allocated from Super Tuesday, largely from California.) This is hardly an insurmountable lead, but, based on the results to date, the rest of the primary season appears to favor Biden. Biden has dominated in south and southwestern states and should do well in the Mid-Atlantic states near his Delaware home. Thus, Biden-land includes large states such as Florida (219), Georgia (105), Pennsylvania (186), New Jersey (126) and Maryland (96). Sandersí strength is in the west, where no such large state primaries remain, Arizona being the largest with 67 delegates. Biden has proven his ability to hold his own in New England, having already won in Massachusetts and Maine."


"It seems clear Biden will win Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi. The fate of the western states is far less clear. At this juncture, we think the momentum is in Bidenís favor, and therefore are calling a sweep. But, as you can see, in very close races it hardly matters who wins or loses, since the delegates are allocated proportionately. Close wins do not close large gaps, and thus Bidenís large wins in Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi will carry the day."

BTRTN South Carolina Preview: Can a Funny Thing Happen on the Way to Bernie's Coronation?

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/02/btrtn-south-carolina-preview-can-funny.html

"The Democratic campaign is over, right? Bernie Sanders is the nominee. He basically won the first three contests. After essentially tying with Pete Buttigieg in lily-white Iowa, winning New Hampshire and utterly clobbering the field in Nevada, showing strength in every demographic in that highly diverse state, what more does Bernie have to prove? Nate Silver has run the numbers, Bernie is going to come out of Super Tuesday with an insurmountable 300+ delegate lead and, as the Boss would say, man, that was all she wrote. Now itís time for the Bernie youth brigade to figure out where the ballot boxes are in November and actually show up to vote, and for the rest of us to grit our teeth and unify behind Sanders, like it or not.

Wait, what?

There is something called the ďSouth Carolina Primary.Ē Have we forgotten? Joe Bidenís firewall? Hello, anybody home?

Wake up, folks, because Joe Biden is going to win South Carolina. Heís actually going to win big. And by Saturday night, Nate will start re-spinning his numbers faster than I can say '2016.' "

BTRTN: Our Annual Analytically-Based Major League Baseball Hall of Fame Predictions

A great read!
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/12/btrtn-our-annual-analytically-based.html

BTRTN: Our Annual Analytically-Based Major League Baseball Hall of Fame Predictions

A great read!
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/12/btrtn-our-annual-analytically-based.html

BTRTN: Can the Dems Really Win Three Red State Governorships Tomorrow?

"There will be many, many elections across the country tomorrow (Tuesday) on Election Day. Our goal here is not to immerse you in Election Day minutiae, but rather to focus on the most consequential elections. And they are the three gubernatorial elections, in Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi, and the elections to determine the composition of both chambers of state legislatures in Virginia, Mississippi and Louisiana, and just the General Assembly in New Jersey.

Either party can win the three gubernatorial races, and the Virginia legislature (both chambers) is up for grabs as well. These are truly bellweather election for 2020. (The other legislature contests almost surely will remain under the control of the incumbent party.)

Letís take a look at each...."


http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/11/btrtn-can-dems-really-win-three-red.html

BTRTN: Can the Dems Really Win Three Red State Governorships Tomorrow?

"There will be many, many elections across the country tomorrow (Tuesday) on Election Day. Our goal here is not to immerse you in Election Day minutiae, but rather to focus on the most consequential elections. And they are the three gubernatorial elections, in Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi, and the elections to determine the composition of both chambers of state legislatures in Virginia, Mississippi and Louisiana, and just the General Assembly in New Jersey.

Either party can win the three gubernatorial races, and the Virginia legislature (both chambers) is up for grabs as well. These are truly bellweather election for 2020. (The other legislature contests almost surely will remain under the control of the incumbent party.)

Letís take a look at each...."


http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/11/btrtn-can-dems-really-win-three-red.html

BTRTN: Pep Talk to Despairing Democrats -- Trump Can and Will Be Beat

For those of you Dems who think Trump is going to win in 2020, read on:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/10/btrtn-pep-talk-to-despairing-democrats.html

"This is how many Democrats size up the 18 candidates remaining in the presidential field: "Heís too old. Sheís too left wing. Heís too old AND heís too left wing. Heís too young and also heís gay. She was promising but faded. And the rest of them Ė theyíre too low in the polls, at two percent, or less."

And this is how they view Trump: "He won last time when they said he couldnít. He defies convention. Nothing sticks to him. His supporters are mesmerized and they get out and vote."

And this is what those Democrats conclude on the 2020 election: "Weíre going to lose."

The purpose of this article is to convince despairing Democrats that they actually have an excellent chance of defeating Donald Trump in 2020. The facts, as they stand now, to support this assertion are overwhelming..."


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