http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/01/btrtn-turns-out-donald-trump-cant-go.html

"Most Americans were stunned to see the images of right wing thugs and vigilantes parading Confederate flags through the halls of the U.S. Capitol, casually hoisting their boots onto the desks in Congressional offices, and succeeding in temporarily disturbing the mechanics of our democracy… all acting on the direct orders of the Domestic Terrorist-in-Chief, the President of the United States.

Few could fathom – in spite of all the warnings -- that Donald Trump would take the final step of actually inciting violence and bloodshed in his quest to retain the Presidency. This, even though Trump said clearly in that first Presidential Debate – the “POTUS Interruptus” fiasco – that the Proud Boys should “stand back and stand by.” Even though Trump has been stoking his supporters with baseless assertions of “election fraud” since well before November. Even though Trump had broadcast the date of the final certification of the Electoral College tally by Congress as the day he would hold a rally of his supporters in Washington, D.C.

I must admit, however, that watching the videos of the presumed insurrectionist swarming the Capitol did not make me existentially worried for our Republic. These people appeared to be no more capable of mounting an actual coup than conquering high school math. Based on their casual swagger, one suspects that the majority of them have absolutely no idea of the gravity of the crimes that they were committing..."

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/01/btrtn-turns-out-donald-trump-cant-go.html

"Most Americans were stunned to see the images of right wing thugs and vigilantes parading Confederate flags through the halls of the U.S. Capitol, casually hoisting their boots onto the desks in Congressional offices, and succeeding in temporarily disturbing the mechanics of our democracy… all acting on the direct orders of the Domestic Terrorist-in-Chief, the President of the United States.

Few could fathom – in spite of all the warnings -- that Donald Trump would take the final step of actually inciting violence and bloodshed in his quest to retain the Presidency. This, even though Trump said clearly in that first Presidential Debate – the “POTUS Interruptus” fiasco – that the Proud Boys should “stand back and stand by.” Even though Trump has been stoking his supporters with baseless assertions of “election fraud” since well before November. Even though Trump had broadcast the date of the final certification of the Electoral College tally by Congress as the day he would hold a rally of his supporters in Washington, D.C.

I must admit, however, that watching the videos of the presumed insurrectionist swarming the Capitol did not make me existentially worried for our Republic. These people appeared to be no more capable of mounting an actual coup than conquering high school math. Based on their casual swagger, one suspects that the majority of them have absolutely no idea of the gravity of the crimes that they were committing..."

"Our official BTRTN prediction for the Georgia Senate runoffs is that Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock will both win by narrow margins, 51% to 49% (or closer), giving the Democrats control of the Senate. This election could take days or even weeks to sort out."
(And then goes through the logic...)
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/01/btrtn-our-predictions-for-georgias.html

This also validates the BTRTN prediction from last November, which was entitled: "BTRTN 2020 Official Election Predictions: Biden Wins and Dems Achieve a Trifecta"

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/11/btrtn-2020-official-election.html

"Our official BTRTN prediction for the Georgia Senate runoffs is that Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock will both win by narrow margins, 51% to 49% (or closer), giving the Democrats control of the Senate. This election could take days or even weeks to sort out."
(And then goes through the logic...)
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/01/btrtn-our-predictions-for-georgias.html

This also validates the BTRTN predictionfrom last November, which was entitled: "BTRTN 2020 Official Election Predictions: Biden Wins and Dems Achieve a Trifecta"

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/11/btrtn-2020-official-election.html

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/12/btrtn-our-annual-analytically-based.html

Each year we analyze the HOF ballot to answer two questions: 1) which nominees will be elected in this year’s voting, receiving at least 75% of the vote of the Baseball Writers Association of America (we also predict what percentage each nominee will receive), and 2) who amongst the nominees deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, based on our own analysis? The two lists are never identical.

For the first question, we use various statistical models to come up with an initial estimate of the percentage of the vote they will receive, and we use judgment to massage and finalize that estimate. For the second question, we have developed a methodology to compare nominees to their predecessors to determine their “Hall-worthiness.”

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/12/btrtn-our-annual-analytically-based.html

Each year we analyze the HOF ballot to answer two questions: 1) which nominees will be elected in this year’s voting, receiving at least 75% of the vote of the Baseball Writers Association of America (we also predict what percentage each nominee will receive), and 2) who amongst the nominees deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, based on our own analysis? The two lists are never identical.

For the first question, we use various statistical models to come up with an initial estimate of the percentage of the vote they will receive, and we use judgment to massage and finalize that estimate. For the second question, we have developed a methodology to compare nominees to their predecessors to determine their “Hall-worthiness.”

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/12/btrtn-our-annual-analytically-based.html

Each year we analyze the HOF ballot to answer two questions: 1) which nominees will be elected in this year’s voting, receiving at least 75% of the vote of the Baseball Writers Association of America (we also predict what percentage each nominee will receive), and 2) who amongst the nominees deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, based on our own analysis? The two lists are never identical.

For the first question, we use various statistical models to come up with an initial estimate of the percentage of the vote they will receive, and we use judgment to massage and finalize that estimate. For the second question, we have developed a methodology to compare nominees to their predecessors to determine their “Hall-worthiness.”

A good read!
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/11/btrtn-2020-official-election.html

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/10/btrtn-three-september-surprises-and.html

"We have just witnessed two weeks that defy imagination. And yet, none of the epic events – not the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, nor the outing of Donald Trump’s taxes, nor Trump’s stunning savagery in his opening debate with Joe Biden, nor Trump’s contraction of COVID-19 – were, at the end of the day, terribly surprising. One could reasonably argue that they were all inevitable – it is simply the confluence of their occurrence, and all so close to Election Day, that leaves us reeling.

Not only reeling, but, more than ever, without a clue as to where it all will land. As predictable as those events might have been, the outcomes that could arise from them range from A to Z. Most notably: will Trump recover, physically? Can he recover, politically, from the blows delivered by his taxes, his widely-panned debate performance, and the return of COVID as a campaign issue? And will Amy Coney Barrett actually ever be confirmed as a lasting Trump legacy on the Supreme Court? "

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/10/btrtn-three-september-surprises-and.html

"We have just witnessed two weeks that defy imagination. And yet, none of the epic events – not the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, nor the outing of Donald Trump’s taxes, nor Trump’s stunning savagery in his opening debate with Joe Biden, nor Trump’s contraction of COVID-19 – were, at the end of the day, terribly surprising. One could reasonably argue that they were all inevitable – it is simply the confluence of their occurrence, and all so close to Election Day, that leaves us reeling.

Not only reeling, but, more than ever, without a clue as to where it all will land. As predictable as those events might have been, the outcomes that could arise from them range from A to Z. Most notably: will Trump recover, physically? Can he recover, politically, from the blows delivered by his taxes, his widely-panned debate performance, and the return of COVID as a campaign issue? And will Amy Coney Barrett actually ever be confirmed as a lasting Trump legacy on the Supreme Court? "