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tgards79

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Member since: Thu Aug 7, 2014, 09:37 AM
Number of posts: 1,308

About Me

My blog: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/

Journal Archives

BTRTN: How We Did in Our BTRTN Midterm Election Predictions

The political website self-assesses its performance in predicting the midterms.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtn-how-we-did-with-our-btrtn-midterm.html

"The 116th Congress is now seated. Well, sort of. Our government is shut down and very little is actually happening (arguably that has been true for quite some time). The garbage piles up, Congress’ approval rating sinks even further (down to 9% in a recent YouGov poll), and Donald Trump continues to astonish in his single-minded focus on building a wall that both conservative immigration experts and border patrol agents think is a very low priority on their immigration wish lists.

So, with the new Congress seated but otherwise at a standstill, more or less, we decided it might finally be a good time, to give an assessment of how we did in forecasting the November, 2018 midterm elections. Why did we wait so long? Well, we had hopes that all of those straggler elections would be resolved so we could give a definitive final answer. But, alas, we have one to go, North Carolina’s 9th district, which still has yet to be certified due to allegations of widespread fraud, in a very close race. The machinations to fill the seat continue.

And so we go forward with our assessment. We looked the results in two ways:

1. The “overall" outcome – how did we do in projecting the total number of seats each party would end up with in the Senate, House and governorships?

2. The “specific" outcomes – how did we do in projecting each of the 505 elections (434 House ex-NC9, 35 Senate and 36 Governor)

We also looked at our results in an “absolute” sense -- how our predictions did versus the actual results -- and also on a relative basis -- how we did compared to the more widely-known prognosticators..."

BTRTN: Trump in the Bunker

The political site BTRTN with their "Month in Review," covering the wacky month of December, 2018:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtn-trump-in-bunker.html

"I once worked for a company that was in trouble. The soon-to-be-fired CEO and his management team were desperately trying to save their jobs. Whenever one member of the team was fired or quit, they didn’t hire a replacement or promote someone; instead, one of the remaining members of the motley crew simply absorbed another title. One poor executive ended up with the rather ungainly portfolio of human resources, public relations, strategic planning and, finally, the Far East operating unit. Ultimately, the entire business was run by only a few trusted lackeys; no one else wanted these jobs and, also to the point, no one else was trusted to hold them.

I thought of this when Mick Mulvaney, the Director of Office of Management and Budget, became Trump’s 'Acting' Chief of Staff. Mulvaney had already absorbed responsibility for the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau. But apparently he was the only one who wanted the job, and one of the few Trump trusted enough to offer the job. And so the Mulvaney portfolio grows and grows -- who knows, he might even end up as Secretary of Defense, too. Merriam-Webster defines 'bunker mentality' as “a state of mind especially among members of a group that is characterized by chauvinistic defensiveness and self-righteous intolerance of criticism.” That sounds about right, and the Mulvaney Empire is clear evidence that Donald Trump has taken up full-time residence in that bunker..."

BTRTN: Trump in the Bunker

The political site BTRTN with their "Month in Review," covering the wacky month of December, 2018:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtn-trump-in-bunker.html

"I once worked for a company that was in trouble. The soon-to-be-fired CEO and his management team were desperately trying to save their jobs. Whenever one member of the team was fired or quit, they didn’t hire a replacement or promote someone; instead, one of the remaining members of the motley crew simply absorbed another title. One poor executive ended up with the rather ungainly portfolio of human resources, public relations, strategic planning and, finally, the Far East operating unit. Ultimately, the entire business was run by only a few trusted lackeys; no one else wanted these jobs and, also to the point, no one else was trusted to hold them.

I thought of this when Mick Mulvaney, the Director of Office of Management and Budget, became Trump’s 'Acting' Chief of Staff. Mulvaney had already absorbed responsibility for the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau. But apparently he was the only one who wanted the job, and one of the few Trump trusted enough to offer the job. And so the Mulvaney portfolio grows and grows -- who knows, he might even end up as Secretary of Defense, too. Merriam-Webster defines 'bunker mentality' as “a state of mind especially among members of a group that is characterized by chauvinistic defensiveness and self-righteous intolerance of criticism.” That sounds about right, and the Mulvaney Empire is clear evidence that Donald Trump has taken up full-time residence in that bunker..."

BTRTN: When Donald Trump Became "Individual 1"

The BTRTN November, 2018 Month in Review, a month chock full of crises, but ultimately may be known to history for only one thing:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/12/btrtn-when-donald-trump-became.html

"November was an astonishingly full month, crammed with comings and goings, inflection points and crises galore, from the midterms to the Mideast, the environment, gun violence, immigration, freedom of the press, the domestic and global economy and even threats of war.

Image result for individual 1The month began with an underqualified sycophant, Matthew Whitaker, beginning his tenure as Attorney General, and ended with the death of perhaps our most qualified president, and one of the most dignified, George H. W. Bush. The contrast between that gentleman and statesman, our 41st president, and the man who installed Whitaker as AG, our 45th, could not be sharper.

And yet through all of this, history may record the month simply as the time when President Trump moved firmly into the crosshairs of the Mueller investigation and became, ominously, “Individual 1.” We’ll see if a smoking gun emerges, but certainly enough smoke is billowing at this point to ensure a fire is raging. That fire is epitomized by a simple query: if there was no crime to begin with, why have so many Trump officials lied about their ties to Russia?"

BTRTN: When Donald Trump Became "Individual 1"

The BTRTN November, 2018 Month in Review, a month chock full of crises, but ultimately may be known to history for only one thing:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/12/btrtn-when-donald-trump-became.html

"November was an astonishingly full month, crammed with comings and goings, inflection points and crises galore, from the midterms to the Mideast, the environment, gun violence, immigration, freedom of the press, the domestic and global economy and even threats of war.

Image result for individual 1The month began with an underqualified sycophant, Matthew Whitaker, beginning his tenure as Attorney General, and ended with the death of perhaps our most qualified president, and one of the most dignified, George H. W. Bush. The contrast between that gentleman and statesman, our 41st president, and the man who installed Whitaker as AG, our 45th, could not be sharper.

And yet through all of this, history may record the month simply as the time when President Trump moved firmly into the crosshairs of the Mueller investigation and became, ominously, “Individual 1.” We’ll see if a smoking gun emerges, but certainly enough smoke is billowing at this point to ensure a fire is raging. That fire is epitomized by a simple query: if there was no crime to begin with, why have so many Trump officials lied about their ties to Russia?"

BTRTN: 55 Ways the Dems Might Go in 2020: The Exhaustive List of Potential Nominees

Paul Simon said there must be 50 ways to leave your lover. The Democrats can do even better than that, with 55 potential presidential candidates who might vie to convince America to take leave of Donald Trump in 2020. Here they are, complete with thumbnail pros and cons:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/11/btrtn-55-ways-dems-might-go-in-2020.html

"Traditionally, candidates make their launch announcements in the spring, roughly 18 months before Election Day, with many visits to Iowa and New Hampshire behind them, a team on board, and a few high money types in tow. But all that will be accelerated in 2019. With so many potentials afoot, few will have the luxury of waiting, and the battle for political talent (e.g., operatives to run campaigns, bundlers to raise money) is well underway. There has, indeed, already been one announcement, by Representative John Delaney of Maryland, who doubtless acted early precisely to get an extra mention in articles like these. And we suspect that more announcements will come – many more – right after the New Year.

And we’ll make another not-so-bold prediction: the Democratic nominee for President in 2020 will be one of the 55 names on the list below (and the Vice Presidential nominee as well). But which one?

One way to approach this challenge is to categorize the contenders based on a “theory” of the race. That is, what “type” of candidate should the Democrats put forward as the “best” way to be rid of Donald Trump? We’ll go through the various theories and list the potential candidates who meet the standard, and then we’ll come back with our own answer to the question..."

BTRTN: 55 Ways the Dems Might Go in 2020: The Exhaustive List of Potential Nominees

Paul Simon said there must be 50 ways to leave your lover. The Democrats can do even better than that, with 55 potential presidential candidates who might vie to convince America to take leave of Donald Trump in 2020. Here they are, complete with thumbnail pros and cons:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/11/btrtn-55-ways-dems-might-go-in-2020.html

"Traditionally, candidates make their launch announcements in the spring, roughly 18 months before Election Day, with many visits to Iowa and New Hampshire behind them, a team on board, and a few high money types in tow. But all that will be accelerated in 2019. With so many potentials afoot, few will have the luxury of waiting, and the battle for political talent (e.g., operatives to run campaigns, bundlers to raise money) is well underway. There has, indeed, already been one announcement, by Representative John Delaney of Maryland, who doubtless acted early precisely to get an extra mention in articles like these. And we suspect that more announcements will come – many more – right after the New Year.

And we’ll make another not-so-bold prediction: the Democratic nominee for President in 2020 will be one of the 55 names on the list below (and the Vice Presidential nominee as well). But which one?

One way to approach this challenge is to categorize the contenders based on a “theory” of the race. That is, what “type” of candidate should the Democrats put forward as the “best” way to be rid of Donald Trump? We’ll go through the various theories and list the potential candidates who meet the standard, and then we’ll come back with our own answer to the question..."

BTRTN: 55 Ways the Dems Might Go in 2020: The Exhaustive List of Potential Nominees

Paul Simon said there must be 50 ways to leave your lover. The Democrats can do even better than that, with 55 potential presidential candidates who might vie to convince America to take leave of Donald Trump in 2020. Here they are, complete with thumbnail pros and cons:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/11/btrtn-55-ways-dems-might-go-in-2020.html

"Traditionally, candidates make their launch announcements in the spring, roughly 18 months before Election Day, with many visits to Iowa and New Hampshire behind them, a team on board, and a few high money types in tow. But all that will be accelerated in 2019. With so many potentials afoot, few will have the luxury of waiting, and the battle for political talent (e.g., operatives to run campaigns, bundlers to raise money) is well underway. There has, indeed, already been one announcement, by Representative John Delaney of Maryland, who doubtless acted early precisely to get an extra mention in articles like these. And we suspect that more announcements will come – many more – right after the New Year.

And we’ll make another not-so-bold prediction: the Democratic nominee for President in 2020 will be one of the 55 names on the list below (and the Vice Presidential nominee as well). But which one?

One way to approach this challenge is to categorize the contenders based on a “theory” of the race. That is, what “type” of candidate should the Democrats put forward as the “best” way to be rid of Donald Trump? We’ll go through the various theories and list the potential candidates who meet the standard, and then we’ll come back with our own answer to the question..."

BTRTN Mississippi U.S. Senate Runoff Prediction and Call to Action: Last Chance to Make a Difference

Can Cindy Hyde-Smith hang on (no pub intended) despite her many racist gaffes? And will you make any calls to help Mike Espy win?
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/11/btrtn-mississippi-us-senate-runoff.html

"In the post-Election Day period, she declared that if a supporter “invited me to a public hanging, I’d be on the first row,” and then she expressed support, publicly, for voter suppression of activities targeting liberals. There is also a controversial picture of her from her younger days attending an all-white private school, a so-called “seg school,” created to allow parents to avoid sending their children to integrated schools. The picture shows her posing with her fellow cheerleaders, arrayed around a man dressed up as a Confederate general, holding a Dixie flag.

All of this has apparently tightened the race. Polling had shown Hyde-Smith ahead by double digits. But while there has been no public polling since the gaffes, there is a report of a private, internal GOP poll that has the margin at a mere five points..."

BTRTN Mississippi U.S. Senate Runoff Prediction and Call to Action: Last Chance to Make a Difference

Can Cindy Hyde-Smith hang on despite her many racist gaffes? And will you make any calls to help Mike Espy win?
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/11/btrtn-mississippi-us-senate-runoff.html

"In the post-Election Day period, she declared that if a supporter “invited me to a public hanging, I’d be on the first row,” and then she expressed support, publicly, for voter suppression of activities targeting liberals. There is also a controversial picture of her from her younger days attending an all-white private school, a so-called “seg school,” created to allow parents to avoid sending their children to integrated schools. The picture shows her posing with her fellow cheerleaders, arrayed around a man dressed up as a Confederate general, holding a Dixie flag.

All of this has apparently tightened the race. Polling had shown Hyde-Smith ahead by double digits. But while there has been no public polling since the gaffes, there is a report of a private, internal GOP poll that has the margin at a mere five points..."
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