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tgards79

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Member since: Thu Aug 7, 2014, 09:37 AM
Number of posts: 1,308

About Me

My blog: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/

Journal Archives

BTRTN SaturData Review: A Deeper Dive into the Approval Rating -- Who Holds Trumps Fate?

Who holds the key to Trump's reelection hopes? And Dems' impeachment hopes?
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/12/btrtn-saturdata-review-deeper-dive-into.html

"...The 'strongly approve' are the portion of the country – about one-quarter -- that is likely to stick with Trump no matter what – the 'True Believers' (or, some would say, the 'Crazies'). They will never abandon Trump. Their perspective was perhaps best – or at least most memorably – articulated by the Trump supporter in a recent CNN 'focus group,' as follows: 'If Jesus Christ gets down off the cross and told me Trump is with Russia, I would tell him, hold on a second, I need to check with the president if it is true. That is how confident I feel in the president.' They will stick with Trump no matter what Mueller comes up with, collusion, obstruction, first-degree murder, you name it.

The 'strongly disapprove' group is nearly half the country, at 48%, what we call the 'Despisers.' They are...."

BTRTN SaturData Review: A Deeper Dive into the Approval Rating -- Who Holds Trumps Fate?

Who holds the key to Trump's reelection hopes? And Dems' impeachment hopes?
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/12/btrtn-saturdata-review-deeper-dive-into.html

BTRTN: Can The Dems Take The House in 2018? An Analytic Look

A deep analysis of the Dems' prospects in 2018:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/12/can-dems-take-house-in-2018-analytic.html

BTRTN: Can The Dems Take The House in 2018? An Analytic Look

A deep analysis of the Dems' prospects in 2018:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/12/can-dems-take-house-in-2018-analytic.html

BTRTN: Can The Dems Take The House in 2018? An Analytic Look

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/12/can-dems-take-house-in-2018-analytic.html

"...What does all this mean for Donald Trump? Trump’s current profile – just over 10 months from the mid-terms – closely resembles that of Clinton and Obama (see a subset of the chart, below). His party is firmly in control with 241 seats, like Clinton (258) and Obama (257). He himself has a wretched approval rating, (using Gallup, for consistency with past presidents’ data) at 38%, well below even the low levels that Obama (45%) and Clinton (46%) held at the time of their midterms.

And Trump’s generic ballot is extremely negative, more negative than even that in Clinton’s time (-7) or Obama’s (-9). There have been a slew of generic ballot measures of late 15 in the month of December), and on average the Dems hold a breathtaking +11 point lead over the GOP (and the one poll that was done after the tax bill was signed showed only a +1 point improvement for the GOP)..."

BTRTN SaturData Review: A Sure Formula -- Trump Shuts Up and His Approval Rating Rises

Everyone seems to know this except Trump:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/12/btrtn-saturdata-review-sure-formula.html

BTRTN SaturData Review: A Sure Formula -- Trump Shuts Up and His Approval Rating Rises

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/12/btrtn-saturdata-review-sure-formula.html

"...I have often said that the surest strategy for Donald Trump to improve his approval rating is to simply shut up. He had a relatively quiet week and his approval rating, which hit a new low last week at 37%, climbed back up to 39% which, while still abysmal, is back to being in the same range that we have seen since June. It is hard to prove cause and, but the “silence is golden” pattern, first noted in his campaign, appears to have happened again.

The tax bill dominated the news this week, as it wound its way from the House to the Senate back to the House again (due to a procedural error), ultimately securing each GOP Senator's vote, save John McCain, who sat it out for health reasons. There is much debate on the ultimate impact of the bill. Its passage certainly gives Trump and the GOP an accomplishment to talk about in the midterms, but it is, by any measure, a deeply unpopular bill. A CNN poll showed that 55% of Americans oppose it, while only 33% are in favor, and other polls were also along these lines..."

BTRTN SaturData Review: Trumps Approval Rating Tumbles Sharply to New Low

A terrible week for Donald Trump finally takes a toll on his approval rating:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/12/btrtn-saturdata-review-trumps-approval.html

"...Trump’s decline might have been brought about by any number of factors, including “carryovers” from last week, which had featured the Flynn charges, the Jerusalem declaration and the Franken/Conyers/Franks resignations. The latter provided strong linkage to the Alabama Senate special election this week, in which Trump pushed all his chips to the middle of the table behind the oft-accused sexual harasser/assaulter Roy Moore, and lost “bigly.”

The total embrace of Moore certainly hurt Trump politically, proving his inability to carry a candidate to the finish line (for the second time in Alabama, as Trump had backed Luther Strange over Moore in the GOP run-off). More importantly, though, Trump’s own disgusting history of abuse was put back on display, as three of his victims returned to the airwaves to tell their stories. Immediately after their testimony, Senator Kirsten Gillebrand led the charge by calling, for the first time, for Trump’s resignation. She was supported by several other Democratic Senators (although, it should be noted, by far fewer than had called for Franken’s head)..."

BTRTN SaturData Review: Trumps Approval Rating Tumbles Sharply to New Low

A terrible week for Donald Trump finally takes a toll on his approval rating:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/12/btrtn-saturdata-review-trumps-approval.html

BTRTN Alabama U.S. Senate Special Election Prediction: Heads I Win, Tails You Lose

Our take on Alabama:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/12/btrtn-alabama-us-senate-special.html
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