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tgards79

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Member since: Thu Aug 7, 2014, 09:37 AM
Number of posts: 1,308

About Me

My blog: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/

Journal Archives

Senate 2018: Dems Look for Openings in a Very Tough Map

The odds of the Dems retaking the Senate in 2018 may be low, but there may be some openings that give hope:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/10/senate-2018-dems-look-for-openings-in.html

"The math shows just how difficult a “map” the Democrats are facing in this election cycle. Democrats are up for reelection in a whopping 25 of the 34 races, while the GOP will defend only nine seats. Of those 25 Democratic seats, 10 are in states won by Donald Trump in 2016. And nine of those Democrats won by less than seven points in 2012, when they last ran for the Senate, while just two of the nine GOP wins were that close.

So, to flip the Senate from red to blue, the Dems need to hold all of their seats plus flip three seats. Both sides of that equation are daunting, to say the least.

But the Dems have a glimmer of optimism of late, driven by four factors...."

Senate 2018: Dems Look for Openings in a Very Tough Map

The odds of the Dems retaking the Senate in 2018 may be low, but there may be some openings that give hope:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/10/senate-2018-dems-look-for-openings-in.html

BTRTN September 2017 Month in Review: Trump's Best Month Yet. Really???

The numbers say so, but it is hard to fathom:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/10/btrtn-september-2017-month-in-review.html

"North Korea successfully tested a hydrogen bomb. The efforts to repeal and replace Obamacare died a new death, and this time for good. The United States failed to support adequately Puerto Rico in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria. Jared Kushner and other White House officials were discovered to have created private email accounts to conduct government business after the election. Trump’s candidate of choice in the Alabama Senate run-off election, Luther Strange, for whom he personally campaigned, was thrashed. Robert Mueller’s investigation heated up considerably and is now clearly focused on Trump himself. And Secretary of Health Human Services Tom Price was forced to resign after proving himself to be the Master of the Swamp with profligate spending of taxpayer money on private jets.

And this was a good month for Donald Trump.

How so, you may ask? Quite simply, for the first time, Trump managed to achieve an increase in his approval rating, after seven months of steady declines; it edged back up to 40%, matching June and July levels, after dipping to 38% in a hideous August."

BTRTN September 2017 Month in Review: Trump's Best Month Yet. Really???

The numbers say so, but it is hard to fathom:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/10/btrtn-september-2017-month-in-review.html

BTRTN: Alabama Run-Off Election: Strange and Stranger

A look at today's run-off election, complete with prediction:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/09/alabama-senate-run-off-election-strange.html

BTRTN: Alabama Run-Off Election: Strange and Stranger

A look at today's run-off election, complete with prediction:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/09/alabama-senate-run-off-election-strange.html

BTRTN: Alabama Run-Off Election: Strange and Stranger

A look at today's run-off election, complete with prediction:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/09/alabama-senate-run-off-election-strange.html

"As for the race itself, all signs point to a Moore win, barring a last-minute meltdown. Moore received 39% of the vote in the primary, and Strange 33%, and recent polling has affirmed that general margin. Polling has been extensive in the race, with seven polls in the last week alone, all remarkably similar, all favoring Moore, by an average of 9.4 points. It does not appear Trump is having much influence on the race, based on the polling since his speech."

BTRTN August 2017 Month in Review: I Am A Wreck, I Am An Island

BTRTN on the careening train wreck that is the Trump Administration, as of August 2017:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/09/btrtn-august-2017-month-in-review-i-am.html

"No man is an island,
Entire of itself.
Each is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.


John Donne, were he alive today, would be forced to consider a rewrite.

Donald Trump declared war on the Republican establishment this month, adding those he needs most to accomplish his agenda to the long, long list of those he reviles. Trump’s enemies begin with his bitterest adversaries, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and the evil mainstream media. But many others inhabit this ever-growing continent of Trump-animus – he launched his campaign two years ago with a bilious screed against Mexican immigrants and the enmity has accelerated unchecked ever since. And now Trump’s own land is a tiny personal island inhibited only by a shrinking pool of supporters. The “wait and see’s” have seen, and have become as appalled as those who had no need to wait."

BTRTN August 2017 Month in Review: I Am A Wreck, I Am An Island

BTRTN on the careening train wreck that is the Trump Administration, as of August 2017:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/09/btrtn-august-2017-month-in-review-i-am.html

Pack Up Those Two Trumps and Take Them Away

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2017/08/pack-up-those-two-trumps-and-take-them.html

"Remember the days when presidents secured national attention with the Address-From-The-Oval-Office? The President, accompanied only by the spare, somber dignity of that setting, stared right into the living rooms of America, and gravely informed the nation of the business at hand – calm, resolute, decisive. JFK on the Cuban Missile Crisis. Bush 43 after 9/11. Reagan on the Challenger disaster. Carter on the crisis of confidence. No matter your party….did anyone doubt the gravity of the issue? The magnitude of the message? The utter sincerity of the president?

Is anyone really fooled by all these Trumps? Of course not. Not those who support him, who love Trump One. Not those who despise him, who see right through Trump Two. Not even those who are “open-minded” to him – they are the ones who have dismissed him during his presidency, those on-the-fencers who have caused Trump’s approval rating to sink by eight points since January.

How about Paul Ryan? Does he get it? I watched his Town Hall, which immediately followed Trump’s Afghanistan speech. Ryan expressed complete satisfaction with Trump Two in the aftermath of his post-Boston statement, believing that performance more than offset Trump One’s press conference performance and the initial statement. Is that how it works in Wisconsin, Paul? It’s OK to be an utter shit-heel on Monday, Wednesday and Friday as long as you pretend to be a pious soul on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday? Is that what you teach the children in your Sunday school class? "
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