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tgards79

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Member since: Thu Aug 7, 2014, 09:37 AM
Number of posts: 1,308

About Me

My blog: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/

Journal Archives

BTRTN: Trump's Bump: Context for His Modestly Improving Approval Rating

Sure, Trump got a bump, but what does it really mean?
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/05/btrtn-context-for-trumps-modestly.html

"This chart also demonstrates the trivial nature of Trump’s recent rise. While the rise is welcome news for his Administration, for sure, his lowest lows and highest highs are both the lowest of any recent president over their first 500 days or so. His current numbers – in the low 40’s – are in a range that signal very bad news in the mid-terms, if he fails to push further north. And the same for his reelection hopes. The “high” mark of 45% represents trouble for him and is perhaps the most important number. Unlike each of his most recent predecessors, Trump has at no point had even half of the country on his side at any time. His predecessor all had a strong majority behind him at some point, ranging from 59% to 90%. And polls show that a huge proportion of those who disapprove of Trump do so 'strongly' – which means that they are unlikely to change their minds.

Trump’s recent “surge” of +3-4 points almost surely can be attributed to the better news emanating from North Korea (Kim Jong-un’s recent threat to cancel the June 12 summit aside). Whether Trump deserves acclaim for this is a different story. North Korea was never a prominent part of candidate Trump’s 'platform'...."

BTRTN: Trump's Bump: Context for His Modestly Improving Approval Rating

Sure, Trump got a bump, but what does it really mean?
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/05/btrtn-context-for-trumps-modestly.html

BTRTN Senate 2018 Election Snapshot: Complete State-by-State Midterm Round-Up: Dems Have A Shot

A comprehensive look at the midterms:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/05/btrtn-senate-2018-election-snapshot.html

"It is still way too early to “predict” the outcome of the 35 races on Election Day, but we can take an updated reading of the races and see where we are. Keep in mind the tickets have not even been established – there is only one certain match-up, in Texas, which held its primary in March. We are just at the start of the primary season with three primaries today, in the crucial states of Ohio, Indiana and West Virginia. The Democrats are the incumbents in each state, but with a tenuous hold on each. The primary season runs through to September 12, when Rhode Island will complete the final field.

So, while early, the races are starting to take shape. We know the contours of some races, and there has been some helpful early polling to give us some state-by-state direction.

The headline is, amazingly, at this point in time – that is, if we had an election today – the Democrats would take control of the Senate by a 51/49 margin.

Democrats should not get too excited by this snapshot rack-up. Six of the 34 races are truly dead heats, and a number of others are very close. (When you read the summaries of them below, you will get a better flavor of this.) The eventual outcome could, of course, still result in GOP maintaining control of the Senate and even a net loss for the Dems. But the main takeaway is that the notion of a Dem takeover is no longer a pipe dream...."

BTRTN Senate 2018 Election Snapshot: Complete State-by-State Midterm Round-Up: Dems Have A Shot

A comprehensive analysis of the Senate midterms:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/05/btrtn-senate-2018-election-snapshot.htm

BTRTN Senate 2018 Election Snapshot: Complete State-by-State Midterm Round-Up: Dems Have A Shot

A comprehensive analysis of the Senate midterms:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/05/btrtn-senate-2018-election-snapshot.html

BTRTN: Donald Trump, Blind Squirrel?

Donald Trump's chaotic, careening and conflicting foreign policy "agenda" just might be the "Blind Squirrel" strategy. Did he find his nut in Korea?
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/05/btrtn-donald-trump-blind-squirrel.html

"Judicious assessment of the geopolitical implications of an interlocking and complex world is not, ahem, a strong suit of Trumpworld. Trump manages it largely without the input of experts, unless you count the assorted billionaires and crazies that Trump calls at night, the Fox & Friends crew in the morning and Sean Hannity (on speed dial) as “experts.” The world is chaotic enough even to the most sober analysts, but if it is one thing the world has counted on from the United States in the last century, it is stability. Sadly, those days are gone. Korea may earn Trump his Nobel Prize – anything can happen. As the old saying goes, even a blind squirrel gets that nut occasionally, and Trump may have stumbled onto his in Korea..."

BTRTN: Donald Trump, Blind Squirrel?

Donald Trump's chaotic, careening and conflicting foreign policy "agenda" just might be the "Blind Squirrel" strategy. Did he find his nut in Korea?
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/05/btrtn-donald-trump-blind-squirrel.html
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