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tgards79

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Member since: Thu Aug 7, 2014, 09:37 AM
Number of posts: 1,308

About Me

My blog: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/

Journal Archives

BTRTN: How the GOP Vision of Conservative Supreme Court Dominance Could Fall Apart

You never can be certain of anything with the Supreme Court:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/07/how-gop-vision-of-conservative-supreme.html

"...But that does not mean this path does not face obstacles that could derail it – perhaps quickly. Let’s take a look at the many ways the GOP dream could still unravel.

The first hurdle is to nominate a candidate without a blemish, one who can actually make it through the confirmation process. Finding nick-free nominees is surprisingly difficult, and modern GOP presidents are particularly bad at it. Richard Nixon had two nominations fall apart, Clement Haynsworth and G. Harrold Carswell, both rejected by the Senate in turn upon discovery of their racist histories. Ronald Reagan fared poorly as well, first with his Robert Bork nomination failing when a Democratic-controlled Senate disapproved of Bork’s hard right views. Reagan then put forward Douglas Ginsburg, who had to withdraw when he admitted that he had smoked marijuana (inhaling and all). Reagan finally had to nominate a relative moderate candidate who flew through the Senate confirmation process -- a man by the name of Anthony Kennedy..."

BTRTN: How the GOP Vision of Conservative Supreme Court Dominance Could Fall Apart

You never can be certain of anything with the Supreme Court:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/07/how-gop-vision-of-conservative-supreme.html

BTRTN: How the GOP Vision of Conservative Supreme Court Dominance Could Fall Apart

You never can be certain of anything with the Supreme Court:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/07/how-gop-vision-of-conservative-supreme.html

BTRTN: Can The Dems Take The House in November? An Updated, Analytic Look

A detailed, in-depth look at the Dem's prospects:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/06/btrtn-can-dems-take-house-in-november.html

"The headline: the outlook for the Democrats taking control of the House in the 2018 midterms remains strong, but hardly certain. We still have many primaries to go, five more months of unexpected national and international events, the ongoing Trump madness, and, of course, 435 head-to-head campaigns. But at this point, the Democrats are in an enviable position.

Our track record in predicting the House is quite strong. The BTRTN record speaks for itself – we have been exceptionally close in each of the last four elections {CHART}.

Our predictions are driven largely by our proprietary BTRTN House Prediction Regression Model, which uses relevant predictive data since 1970. More on that later.

But to get to the answer (and we will return with a full explanation), this BTRTN snapshot indicates that if Election Day were today, the Democrats would..."

BTRTN: Can The Dems Take The House in November? An Updated, Analytic Look

A detailed, in-depth look at the Dem's prospects:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/06/btrtn-can-dems-take-house-in-november.html

BTRTN: Can The Dems Take The House in November? An Updated, Analytic Look

A detailed look at the Dem's prospects:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/06/btrtn-can-dems-take-house-in-november.html

BTRTN: How Can a Heartless Bastard Govern With Heart?

Happy Father's Day, Donald Trump! Let's celebrate by ripping 46 more immigrant children from their fathers! Time to start calling the White House.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/06/btrtn-how-can-heartless-bastard-govern.html

"It is an astonishing decision, one justified biblically by the hapless Jeff Sessions by citing the oft-used -- by tyrants and slaveholders, to name a few -- Romans 13 (“The authorities that exist have been established by God. Consequently, whoever rebels against the authority is rebelling against what God has instituted, and those who do so will bring judgment on themselves.”).

Trump is also blaming the action on Democrats, referring to the separation policy as “their law.” This is an outright lie. There is simply no law requiring such separation, period.

Melania Trump has weighed in: "Mrs. Trump hates to see children separated from their families and hopes both sides of the aisle can finally come together to achieve successful immigration reform. She believes we need to be a country that follows all laws, but also a country that governs with heart."

But, of course, you can only govern with heart if the head of the government happens to have one, and that clearly is not the case in America. Happy Father's Day, Donald Trump. To celebrate, let's take 46 more children away from their fathers, in line with the daily average..."

BTRTN: How Can a Heartless Bastard Govern With Heart?

Happy Father's Day, Donald Trump! Let's celebrate by ripping 46 more immigrant children from their fathers! Time to start calling the White House.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/06/btrtn-how-can-heartless-bastard-govern.html

BTRTN: The Conscience of our King

Donald Trump had a busy month of May, playing with his newfound diplomatic toys and watching in delight as the world explodes. Plus Rudy was on the scene to help lay waste to our institutions.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/06/btrtn-conscience-of-our-king.html

"As emboldened as Trump has become with respect to his own defense, his attempts to reshape the world have been, depending on your perspective, even bolder or more reckless. Trump exited the Iran deal, moved our Israeli embassy to Jerusalem, and carried on a trade war with China – all in this month. In the wake of the Iran deal, Israel and Iran exchanged bombs on positions held by the other; as Javanka opened the doors of the new embassy, 58 Palestinians were being gunned down in Gaza; whatever flicker of a chance Middle East peace prospects might have had was extinguished; and talks to avoid the trade war with China fizzled as the Chinese played their hand beautifully, promising nothing painful for them, a performance so weak that Trump was forced to take Steve Mnuchin off the case and replace him with the previously-sidelined Wilbur Ross.

These are the ongoing aftershocks of policies born on the fly to score cheap political points, rather than real geo-political gains, guided by neither informed, expert inputs nor proper six-moves-ahead-chess-playing about how it all might play out. The potential for unintended consequences of Trump’s “instincts” in the coming decade is utterly terrifying..."

BTRTN: The Conscience of our King

Donald Trump had a busy month of May, playing with his newfound diplomatic toys and watching in delight as the world explodes. Plus Rudy was on the scene to help lay waste to our institutions.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/06/btrtn-conscience-of-our-king.html
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