tgards79
tgards79's JournalBTRTN Final Midterms Snapshot: The 50 Races That Will Define America
If the Dems win most of them, it's a wave; if the GOP wins most of them, Trump triumphs:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/11/btrtn-final-midterms-snapshot-50-races.html
"There are 50 races that will define America for at least the next two years, races that will be decided well into the wee hours on election night, and possibly for days after. We have listed them at the end of this article. Regardless of your political persuasion, if you have a dollar to give, a minute to make a call, or an hour to canvass a neighborhood, these are the 50 races that you should be targeting. If the Democrats win most of those races, they will win the House, keep the Senate close, and hold the majority of state houses across the land. More importantly, they will have succeeded in exploding the Trump myth that he can win any election he puts his mind to, send him a clear signal that he is extremely vulnerable in 2020, put a stop to Trump-inspired legislation -- and kick-start a slew of subpoena-stoked House investigations.
If today were Election Day, the point estimate would look like this, with the Dems..."
BTRTN Final Midterms Snapshot: The 50 Races That Will Define America
If the Dems win most of them, it's a wave; if the GOP wins most of them, Trump triumphs:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/11/btrtn-final-midterms-snapshot-50-races.html
"There are 50 races that will define America for at least the next two years, races that will be decided well into the wee hours on election night, and possibly for days after. We have listed them at the end of this article. Regardless of your political persuasion, if you have a dollar to give, a minute to make a call, or an hour to canvass a neighborhood, these are the 50 races that you should be targeting. If the Democrats win most of those races, they will win the House, keep the Senate close, and hold the majority of state houses across the land. More importantly, they will have succeeded in exploding the Trump myth that he can win any election he puts his mind to, send him a clear signal that he is extremely vulnerable in 2020, put a stop to Trump-inspired legislation -- and kick-start a slew of subpoena-stoked House investigations.
If today were Election Day, the point estimate would look like this, with the Dems..."
BTRTN Final Midterms Snapshot: The 50 Races That Will Define America
If the Dems win most of them, it's a wave; if the GOP wins most of them, Trump triumphs:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/11/btrtn-final-midterms-snapshot-50-races.html
"There are 50 races that will define America for at least the next two years, races that will be decided well into the wee hours on election night, and possibly for days after. We have listed them at the end of this article. Regardless of your political persuasion, if you have a dollar to give, a minute to make a call, or an hour to canvass a neighborhood, these are the 50 races that you should be targeting. If the Democrats win most of those races, they will win the House, keep the Senate close, and hold the majority of state houses across the land. More importantly, they will have succeeded in exploding the Trump myth that he can win any election he puts his mind to, send him a clear signal that he is extremely vulnerable in 2020, put a stop to Trump-inspired legislation -- and kick-start a slew of subpoena-stoked House investigations.
If today were Election Day, the point estimate would look like this, with the Dems..."
BTRTN: This American Carnage
October was the darkest month of the Trump presidency...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/11/btrtn-this-american-carnage.html
"Donald Trump, in his twisted mind, was referring to the past on that fateful day in January. But under him, the American carnage actually began.
The month of October was the darkest of any Trump month, a month when our collective national psyche simply gasped with despair. How many people do you know who can no longer watch the news, who can no longer stomach the constant buzz of the twitter feed, who cannot find America in the headlines?
This was the month we put a man on the Supreme Court who was credibly accused of sexual assault, a charge that was papered over by a sham investigation under White House direction. We did this despite the presence of many..."
BTRTN: This American Carnage
October was the darkest month of the Trump presidency...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/11/btrtn-this-american-carnage.html
BTRTN: The GOP's Odds of Keeping the House are Rising - From Nearly Hopeless to Merely Terrible
Yes, the GOP's midterm position looks slightly stronger than a week ago. But it still faces daunting odds to keep the House.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/10/btrtn-midterms-snapshot-gops-odds-of.html
"There is a narrative you have been hearing like a rising drumbeat over the past week, and it can be summarized from the opening sentence of an Associated Press article yesterday:
“In the closing stretch of the 2018 campaign, the question is no longer the size of the Democratic wave. It’s whether there will be a wave at all.”
This theme is likely afoot for several reasons: 1) it’s an excellent media storyline, injecting some excitement by casting doubt on the likely outcome; 2) it offers an opportunity for journalists (and pollsters and poll aggregators) to cover their behinds so as not to commit another fiasco as in 2016; and 3) it is a motivator (for partisan Dems) to ensure that there is no complacency, that that massive Dem enthusiasm does not dwindle down the stretch.
The facts themselves do not really support such a dire view of the state of play..."
BTRTN: The GOP's Odds of Keeping the House are Rising - From Nearly Hopeless to Merely Terrible
Yes, the GOP's midterm position looks slightly stronger than a week ago. But it still faces daunting odds to keep the House.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/10/btrtn-midterms-snapshot-gops-odds-of.html
BTRTN: The GOP's Odds of Keeping the House are Rising - From Nearly Hopeless to Merely Terrible
Yes, the GOP's midterm position looks slightly stronger than a week ago. But it still faces daunting odds to keep the House.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/10/btrtn-midterms-snapshot-gops-odds-of.html
BTRTN: Finding Refuge in Local Politics: The View from Maine
A fascinating and inspiring view of local politics from the campaign volunteer perspective, "Finding Refuge in Local Politics: The View From Maine"
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/10/btrtn-finding-refuge-in-local-politics.html
"This year, Maine has a couple of contentious elections. Former marine and state house representative Jared Golden is running to unseat our Republican incumbent Bruce Poliquin. Although the polls show that race as a toss-up and Golden is hoping to ride the blue wave, no incumbent has ever been defeated in northern Maine in over a hundred years. Attorney General Janet Mills and businessman Shawn Moody are in another toss-up race to replace the oft maligned governor Paul LePage, who is getting termed out this year. The local Democrats see this year as an opportunity to win both houses of Congress and the governor’s mansion, giving them an excellent chance to deliver on their agenda.
Earlier this year I began volunteering for the reelection campaign of Democratic state senator Jim Dill, who also serves as the local tick expert at the University of Maine..."
BTRTN: Finding Refuge in Local Politics: The View from Maine
A fascinating and inspiring view of local politics from the campaign volunteer perspective, "Finding Refuge in Local Politics: The View From Maine"
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/10/btrtn-finding-refuge-in-local-politics.html
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