tgards79
tgards79's JournalBTRTN: How the GOP Vision of Conservative Supreme Court Dominance Could Fall Apart
You never can be certain of anything with the Supreme Court:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/07/how-gop-vision-of-conservative-supreme.html
BTRTN: Can The Dems Take The House in November? An Updated, Analytic Look
A detailed, in-depth look at the Dem's prospects:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/06/btrtn-can-dems-take-house-in-november.html
"The headline: the outlook for the Democrats taking control of the House in the 2018 midterms remains strong, but hardly certain. We still have many primaries to go, five more months of unexpected national and international events, the ongoing Trump madness, and, of course, 435 head-to-head campaigns. But at this point, the Democrats are in an enviable position.
Our track record in predicting the House is quite strong. The BTRTN record speaks for itself – we have been exceptionally close in each of the last four elections {CHART}.
Our predictions are driven largely by our proprietary BTRTN House Prediction Regression Model, which uses relevant predictive data since 1970. More on that later.
But to get to the answer (and we will return with a full explanation), this BTRTN snapshot indicates that if Election Day were today, the Democrats would..."
BTRTN: Can The Dems Take The House in November? An Updated, Analytic Look
A detailed, in-depth look at the Dem's prospects:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/06/btrtn-can-dems-take-house-in-november.html
BTRTN: Can The Dems Take The House in November? An Updated, Analytic Look
A detailed look at the Dem's prospects:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/06/btrtn-can-dems-take-house-in-november.html
BTRTN: How Can a Heartless Bastard Govern With Heart?
Happy Father's Day, Donald Trump! Let's celebrate by ripping 46 more immigrant children from their fathers! Time to start calling the White House.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/06/btrtn-how-can-heartless-bastard-govern.html
"It is an astonishing decision, one justified biblically by the hapless Jeff Sessions by citing the oft-used -- by tyrants and slaveholders, to name a few -- Romans 13 (“The authorities that exist have been established by God. Consequently, whoever rebels against the authority is rebelling against what God has instituted, and those who do so will bring judgment on themselves.”).
Trump is also blaming the action on Democrats, referring to the separation policy as “their law.” This is an outright lie. There is simply no law requiring such separation, period.
Melania Trump has weighed in: "Mrs. Trump hates to see children separated from their families and hopes both sides of the aisle can finally come together to achieve successful immigration reform. She believes we need to be a country that follows all laws, but also a country that governs with heart."
But, of course, you can only govern with heart if the head of the government happens to have one, and that clearly is not the case in America. Happy Father's Day, Donald Trump. To celebrate, let's take 46 more children away from their fathers, in line with the daily average..."
BTRTN: How Can a Heartless Bastard Govern With Heart?
Happy Father's Day, Donald Trump! Let's celebrate by ripping 46 more immigrant children from their fathers! Time to start calling the White House.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/06/btrtn-how-can-heartless-bastard-govern.html
BTRTN: The Conscience of our King
Donald Trump had a busy month of May, playing with his newfound diplomatic toys and watching in delight as the world explodes. Plus Rudy was on the scene to help lay waste to our institutions.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/06/btrtn-conscience-of-our-king.html
"As emboldened as Trump has become with respect to his own defense, his attempts to reshape the world have been, depending on your perspective, even bolder or more reckless. Trump exited the Iran deal, moved our Israeli embassy to Jerusalem, and carried on a trade war with China – all in this month. In the wake of the Iran deal, Israel and Iran exchanged bombs on positions held by the other; as Javanka opened the doors of the new embassy, 58 Palestinians were being gunned down in Gaza; whatever flicker of a chance Middle East peace prospects might have had was extinguished; and talks to avoid the trade war with China fizzled as the Chinese played their hand beautifully, promising nothing painful for them, a performance so weak that Trump was forced to take Steve Mnuchin off the case and replace him with the previously-sidelined Wilbur Ross.
These are the ongoing aftershocks of policies born on the fly to score cheap political points, rather than real geo-political gains, guided by neither informed, expert inputs nor proper six-moves-ahead-chess-playing about how it all might play out. The potential for unintended consequences of Trump’s “instincts” in the coming decade is utterly terrifying..."
BTRTN: The Conscience of our King
Donald Trump had a busy month of May, playing with his newfound diplomatic toys and watching in delight as the world explodes. Plus Rudy was on the scene to help lay waste to our institutions.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/06/btrtn-conscience-of-our-king.html
BTRTN: Trump's Bump: Context for His Modestly Improving Approval Rating
Sure, Trump got a bump, but what does it really mean?
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/05/btrtn-context-for-trumps-modestly.html
"This chart also demonstrates the trivial nature of Trump’s recent rise. While the rise is welcome news for his Administration, for sure, his lowest lows and highest highs are both the lowest of any recent president over their first 500 days or so. His current numbers – in the low 40’s – are in a range that signal very bad news in the mid-terms, if he fails to push further north. And the same for his reelection hopes. The “high” mark of 45% represents trouble for him and is perhaps the most important number. Unlike each of his most recent predecessors, Trump has at no point had even half of the country on his side at any time. His predecessor all had a strong majority behind him at some point, ranging from 59% to 90%. And polls show that a huge proportion of those who disapprove of Trump do so 'strongly' – which means that they are unlikely to change their minds.
Trump’s recent “surge” of +3-4 points almost surely can be attributed to the better news emanating from North Korea (Kim Jong-un’s recent threat to cancel the June 12 summit aside). Whether Trump deserves acclaim for this is a different story. North Korea was never a prominent part of candidate Trump’s 'platform'...."
BTRTN: Trump's Bump: Context for His Modestly Improving Approval Rating
Sure, Trump got a bump, but what does it really mean?
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/05/btrtn-context-for-trumps-modestly.html
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Member since: Thu Aug 7, 2014, 09:37 AMNumber of posts: 1,415
