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tgards79

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Member since: Thu Aug 7, 2014, 09:37 AM
Number of posts: 1,308

About Me

My blog: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/

Journal Archives

BTRTN's Annual Major League Baseball Hall of Fame Predictions: Mariano, Edgar and the Moose

The forecasting website gives its annual predictions with lots of analysis...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtns-annual-major-league-baseball.html

"Each year we analyze the baseball Hall of Fame ballot to answer two questions: 1) which nominees will be elected in this year’s voting, receiving at least 75% of the vote of the Baseball Writers Association of America (we also predict what percentage each nominee will receive), and 2) who amongst the nominees deserves to be in the Hall of Fame? The two lists are never identical. For the first question, we use various statistical models to come up with an initial estimate of the percentage of the vote they will receive, and we use judgment to massage and finalize that estimate. For the second question, we have developed a methodology to compare nominees to their predecessors to determine their HOF-worthiness.

Last year we had a very good year. We predicted accurately that first-timers Chipper Jones and Jim Thome would be elected, and that returnees Vladimir Guerrero and Trevor Hoffman would make the grade as well. We also did quite well in predicting the actual voting percentages of most on the ballot, missing only two players relatively egregiously, underestimating Omar Vizquel and overestimating Scott Rolen. Both were first-timers and both slick fielders, and those two factors pose massive issues for those in the HOF projection business, as was revealed yet again. (We were also pretty far off on Andruw Jones at a much lower vote level; he, too, was legendary defensively.) Because defensive metrics are neither perfect nor widely known, strong defensive players are more difficult to assess. But everyone else was within field goal range. I was off on average by 4.8 percentage points per nominee, better than the 5.9 “miss” in each of the previous two years...."

BTRTN's Annual Major League Baseball Hall of Fame Predictions: Mariano, Edgar and the Moose

The forecasting website gives its annual predictions with lots of analysis...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtns-annual-major-league-baseball.html

BTRTN's Annual Major League Baseball Hall of Fame Predictions: Mariano, Edgar and the Moose

The forecasting website gives its annual predictions with lots of analysis...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtns-annual-major-league-baseball.html

BTRTN 2020 Vision: The Democratic Field by the Numbers

The forecasting website takes a look at the early data on the Democratic 2020 presidential race:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtn-2020-vision-democratic-field-by.html

"With this article we launch a new feature called “BTRTN 2020 Vision,” in which we will review the 2020 elections on a monthly basis (timed mid-month) throughout 2019. We will surely have many other articles on the elections, but once a month we will review the field “by the numbers” and update you on who is in, who is rising, who is falling, and who (ultimately) drops out. By year end, when we turn the corner into 2020, the field for the Iowa caucuses will be set.

Image result for 2020 electionAs of now, there are six announced candidates for the Democratic nomination, and only one, Donald Trump, for the GOP. The Democratic field will surely get much more crowded -- and we suspect Trump will have some company as well..."

BTRTN 2020 Vision: The Democratic Field by the Numbers

The forecasting website takes a look at the early data on the Democratic 2020 presidential race:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtn-2020-vision-democratic-field-by.html

"With this article we launch a new feature called “BTRTN 2020 Vision,” in which we will review the 2020 elections on a monthly basis (timed mid-month) throughout 2019. We will surely have many other articles on the elections, but once a month we will review the field “by the numbers” and update you on who is in, who is rising, who is falling, and who (ultimately) drops out. By year end, when we turn the corner into 2020, the field for the Iowa caucuses will be set.

Image result for 2020 electionAs of now, there are six announced candidates for the Democratic nomination, and only one, Donald Trump, for the GOP. The Democratic field will surely get much more crowded -- and we suspect Trump will have some company as well..."

BTRTN 2020 Vision: The Democratic Field by the Numbers

The forecasting website takes a look at the early data on the Democratic 2020 presidential race:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtn-2020-vision-democratic-field-by.html

"With this article we launch a new feature called “BTRTN 2020 Vision,” in which we will review the 2020 elections on a monthly basis (timed mid-month) throughout 2019. We will surely have many other articles on the elections, but once a month we will review the field “by the numbers” and update you on who is in, who is rising, who is falling, and who (ultimately) drops out. By year end, when we turn the corner into 2020, the field for the Iowa caucuses will be set.

Image result for 2020 electionAs of now, there are six announced candidates for the Democratic nomination, and only one, Donald Trump, for the GOP. The Democratic field will surely get much more crowded -- and we suspect Trump will have some company as well..."

BTRTN: How We Did in Our BTRTN Midterm Election Predictions

The political website self-assesses its performance in predicting the midterms.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtn-how-we-did-with-our-btrtn-midterm.html

"The 116th Congress is now seated. Well, sort of. Our government is shut down and very little is actually happening (arguably that has been true for quite some time). The garbage piles up, Congress’ approval rating sinks even further (down to 9% in a recent YouGov poll), and Donald Trump continues to astonish in his single-minded focus on building a wall that both conservative immigration experts and border patrol agents think is a very low priority on their immigration wish lists.

So, with the new Congress seated but otherwise at a standstill, more or less, we decided it might finally be a good time, to give an assessment of how we did in forecasting the November, 2018 midterm elections. Why did we wait so long? Well, we had hopes that all of those straggler elections would be resolved so we could give a definitive final answer. But, alas, we have one to go, North Carolina’s 9th district, which still has yet to be certified due to allegations of widespread fraud, in a very close race. The machinations to fill the seat continue.

And so we go forward with our assessment. We looked the results in two ways:

1. The “overall" outcome – how did we do in projecting the total number of seats each party would end up with in the Senate, House and governorships?

2. The “specific" outcomes – how did we do in projecting each of the 505 elections (434 House ex-NC9, 35 Senate and 36 Governor)

We also looked at our results in an “absolute” sense -- how our predictions did versus the actual results -- and also on a relative basis -- how we did compared to the more widely-known prognosticators..."

BTRTN: How We Did in Our BTRTN Midterm Election Predictions

The political website self-assesses its performance in predicting the midterms.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtn-how-we-did-with-our-btrtn-midterm.html

"The 116th Congress is now seated. Well, sort of. Our government is shut down and very little is actually happening (arguably that has been true for quite some time). The garbage piles up, Congress’ approval rating sinks even further (down to 9% in a recent YouGov poll), and Donald Trump continues to astonish in his single-minded focus on building a wall that both conservative immigration experts and border patrol agents think is a very low priority on their immigration wish lists.

So, with the new Congress seated but otherwise at a standstill, more or less, we decided it might finally be a good time, to give an assessment of how we did in forecasting the November, 2018 midterm elections. Why did we wait so long? Well, we had hopes that all of those straggler elections would be resolved so we could give a definitive final answer. But, alas, we have one to go, North Carolina’s 9th district, which still has yet to be certified due to allegations of widespread fraud, in a very close race. The machinations to fill the seat continue.

And so we go forward with our assessment. We looked the results in two ways:

1. The “overall" outcome – how did we do in projecting the total number of seats each party would end up with in the Senate, House and governorships?

2. The “specific" outcomes – how did we do in projecting each of the 505 elections (434 House ex-NC9, 35 Senate and 36 Governor)

We also looked at our results in an “absolute” sense -- how our predictions did versus the actual results -- and also on a relative basis -- how we did compared to the more widely-known prognosticators..."

BTRTN: How We Did in Our BTRTN Midterm Election Predictions

The political website self-assesses its performance in predicting the midterms.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtn-how-we-did-with-our-btrtn-midterm.html

"The 116th Congress is now seated. Well, sort of. Our government is shut down and very little is actually happening (arguably that has been true for quite some time). The garbage piles up, Congress’ approval rating sinks even further (down to 9% in a recent YouGov poll), and Donald Trump continues to astonish in his single-minded focus on building a wall that both conservative immigration experts and border patrol agents think is a very low priority on their immigration wish lists.

So, with the new Congress seated but otherwise at a standstill, more or less, we decided it might finally be a good time, to give an assessment of how we did in forecasting the November, 2018 midterm elections. Why did we wait so long? Well, we had hopes that all of those straggler elections would be resolved so we could give a definitive final answer. But, alas, we have one to go, North Carolina’s 9th district, which still has yet to be certified due to allegations of widespread fraud, in a very close race. The machinations to fill the seat continue.

And so we go forward with our assessment. We looked the results in two ways:

1. The “overall" outcome – how did we do in projecting the total number of seats each party would end up with in the Senate, House and governorships?

2. The “specific" outcomes – how did we do in projecting each of the 505 elections (434 House ex-NC9, 35 Senate and 36 Governor)

We also looked at our results in an “absolute” sense -- how our predictions did versus the actual results -- and also on a relative basis -- how we did compared to the more widely-known prognosticators..."

BTRTN: Trump in the Bunker

The political site BTRTN with their "Month in Review," covering the wacky month of December, 2018:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtn-trump-in-bunker.html

"I once worked for a company that was in trouble. The soon-to-be-fired CEO and his management team were desperately trying to save their jobs. Whenever one member of the team was fired or quit, they didn’t hire a replacement or promote someone; instead, one of the remaining members of the motley crew simply absorbed another title. One poor executive ended up with the rather ungainly portfolio of human resources, public relations, strategic planning and, finally, the Far East operating unit. Ultimately, the entire business was run by only a few trusted lackeys; no one else wanted these jobs and, also to the point, no one else was trusted to hold them.

I thought of this when Mick Mulvaney, the Director of Office of Management and Budget, became Trump’s 'Acting' Chief of Staff. Mulvaney had already absorbed responsibility for the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau. But apparently he was the only one who wanted the job, and one of the few Trump trusted enough to offer the job. And so the Mulvaney portfolio grows and grows -- who knows, he might even end up as Secretary of Defense, too. Merriam-Webster defines 'bunker mentality' as “a state of mind especially among members of a group that is characterized by chauvinistic defensiveness and self-righteous intolerance of criticism.” That sounds about right, and the Mulvaney Empire is clear evidence that Donald Trump has taken up full-time residence in that bunker..."
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