tgards79
tgards79's JournalBTRTN 2020 Vision: Biden and Bernie Set the Pace in the Polls, and Define the Ideological Spectrum
BTRTN gives a fulsome election update, complete with all the numbers:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/03/btrtn-2020-vision-biden-and-bernie-set.html
BTRTN: Part 5: The Jeremy Lin Saga Continues: First Hawked and Then "En-Raptored"
The latest installment on the incredible saga of NBA star Jeremy Lin...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/02/btrtn-part-5-jeremy-lin-saga-continues.html
"Lin, on the other hand, caught fire. His November was, statistically at least, his best month since Linsanity, albeit in fewer minutes. For the 14 games in November Lin shot at an otherworldly 58%, a pace usually reserved for centers who play close to the rim. And at the three-point line, he connected at a Steph-like rate of 48%. His touch was simply astonishing for a player who had missed over a year and a half due to injuries, and was just weeks into his return.
Lin looked good, but he also looked different. He was still attacking the hoop at roughly the same rate as ever, but the headlong drives were rare. Instead, he developed a new signature move, off the middle pick and roll, essentially coming off the screen, cutting off his own defender, essentially carrying him on his back as he edged down the lane, and invariably either stopping for a short, deadly jumper in the key, or drawing a foul from the frustrated defender behind him..."
BTRTN: Part 5: The Jeremy Lin Saga Continues: First Hawked and Then "En-Raptored"
The latest installment on the incredible saga of NBA star Jeremy Lin...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/02/btrtn-part-5-jeremy-lin-saga-continues.html
"Lin, on the other hand, caught fire. His November was, statistically at least, his best month since Linsanity, albeit in fewer minutes. For the 14 games in November Lin shot at an otherworldly 58%, a pace usually reserved for centers who play close to the rim. And at the three-point line, he connected at a Steph-like rate of 48%. His touch was simply astonishing for a player who had missed over a year and a half due to injuries, and was just weeks into his return.
Lin looked good, but he also looked different. He was still attacking the hoop at roughly the same rate as ever, but the headlong drives were rare. Instead, he developed a new signature move, off the middle pick and roll, essentially coming off the screen, cutting off his own defender, essentially carrying him on his back as he edged down the lane, and invariably either stopping for a short, deadly jumper in the key, or drawing a foul from the frustrated defender behind him..."
BTRTN: Part 5: The Jeremy Lin Saga Continues: First Hawked and Then "En-Raptored"
The latest installment on the incredible saga of NBA star Jeremy Lin...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/02/btrtn-part-5-jeremy-lin-saga-continues.html
"Lin, on the other hand, caught fire. His November was, statistically at least, his best month since Linsanity, albeit in fewer minutes. For the 14 games in November Lin shot at an otherworldly 58%, a pace usually reserved for centers who play close to the rim. And at the three-point line, he connected at a Steph-like rate of 48%. His touch was simply astonishing for a player who had missed over a year and a half due to injuries, and was just weeks into his return.
Lin looked good, but he also looked different. He was still attacking the hoop at roughly the same rate as ever, but the headlong drives were rare. Instead, he developed a new signature move, off the middle pick and roll, essentially coming off the screen, cutting off his own defender, essentially carrying him on his back as he edged down the lane, and invariably either stopping for a short, deadly jumper in the key, or drawing a foul from the frustrated defender behind him..."
BTRTN 2020 Vision: The Senators Have Arrived, Next Come the "B's"
Latest edition of the monthly feature providing a detailed update on the 2020 Election, including all the "numbers":
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/02/btrtn-2020-vision-senators-have-arrived.html
"The 2020 campaign ramped up considerably in the last month, as the Democratic field nearly doubled from six to eleven, and the GOP field did double from one to two. And it is entirely possible that both fields could double again in the coming months.
For the Democrats, the key end-date for entering the fray is probably May 31. The national debate schedule has been announced; the first one will be held in June (those early debates will actually be held on pairs of nights to accommodate the anticipated large field). No Democrat will want to miss that opportunity. But realistically, with nearly a dozen candidates traipsing through Iowa and New Hampshire (and South Carolina) already, only Joe Biden can really afford to wait too much longer than, say, March 31 to get in the game.
On the GOP side, the calculus for “primarying” Trump is more complicated with respect to timing, as the only likely trigger is the Mueller report. If it is utterly damning, it could tempt several big names to challenge Trump, and that could be true even if the Dems decide against initiating an impeachment process..."
BTRTN 2020 Vision: The Senators Have Arrived, Next Come the "B's"
Latest edition of the monthly feature providing a detailed update on the 2020 Election, including all the "numbers":
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/02/btrtn-2020-vision-senators-have-arrived.html
"The 2020 campaign ramped up considerably in the last month, as the Democratic field nearly doubled from six to eleven, and the GOP field did double from one to two. And it is entirely possible that both fields could double again in the coming months.
For the Democrats, the key end-date for entering the fray is probably May 31. The national debate schedule has been announced; the first one will be held in June (those early debates will actually be held on pairs of nights to accommodate the anticipated large field). No Democrat will want to miss that opportunity. But realistically, with nearly a dozen candidates traipsing through Iowa and New Hampshire (and South Carolina) already, only Joe Biden can really afford to wait too much longer than, say, March 31 to get in the game.
On the GOP side, the calculus for “primarying” Trump is more complicated with respect to timing, as the only likely trigger is the Mueller report. If it is utterly damning, it could tempt several big names to challenge Trump, and that could be true even if the Dems decide against initiating an impeachment process..."
BTRTN 2020 Vision: The Senators Have Arrived, Next Come the "B's"
Next edition of the monthly feature providing a detailed update on the 2020 Election, including all the "numbers":
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/02/btrtn-2020-vision-senators-have-arrived.html
"The 2020 campaign ramped up considerably in the last month, as the Democratic field nearly doubled from six to eleven, and the GOP field did double from one to two. And it is entirely possible that both fields could double again in the coming months.
For the Democrats, the key end-date for entering the fray is probably May 31. The national debate schedule has been announced; the first one will be held in June (those early debates will actually be held on pairs of nights to accommodate the anticipated large field). No Democrat will want to miss that opportunity. But realistically, with nearly a dozen candidates traipsing through Iowa and New Hampshire (and South Carolina) already, only Joe Biden can really afford to wait too much longer than, say, March 31 to get in the game.
On the GOP side, the calculus for “primarying” Trump is more complicated with respect to timing, as the only likely trigger is the Mueller report. If it is utterly damning, it could tempt several big names to challenge Trump, and that could be true even if the Dems decide against initiating an impeachment process..."
BTRTN: Trump Has a New Reality Show: "Lost"
BTRTN "highlights" all the ways January was a loser for Trump in the BTRTN January 2019 Month in Review:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/02/btrtn-trump-has-new-reality-show-lost.html
"January was the twenty-fourth full month of the Trump presidency, and the first to be dominated by a single issue: the government shutdown that lasted for 35 days. Trump lost the shutdown war to Nancy Pelosi, lost a second sidebar war with her on the State of the Union, lost some face with his core constituents, lost some points he can’t afford to lose in his approval rating, lost a month of his presidency, and was under-informed, ill-advised, clueless -- in a word, lost – when it came to a number of key decisions that he made in the month.
In short, Donald Trump simply lost January.
The shutdown, of course, began in December. Trump essentially welched..."
BTRTN: Trump Has a New Reality Show: "Lost"
BTRTN "highlights" all the ways January was a loser for Trump in the BTRTN January 2019 Month in Review:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/02/btrtn-trump-has-new-reality-show-lost.html
"January was the twenty-fourth full month of the Trump presidency, and the first to be dominated by a single issue: the government shutdown that lasted for 35 days. Trump lost the shutdown war to Nancy Pelosi, lost a second sidebar war with her on the State of the Union, lost some face with his core constituents, lost some points he can’t afford to lose in his approval rating, lost a month of his presidency, and was under-informed, ill-advised, clueless -- in a word, lost – when it came to a number of key decisions that he made in the month.
In short, Donald Trump simply lost January.
The shutdown, of course, began in December. Trump essentially welched..."
BTRTN's Annual Major League Baseball Hall of Fame Predictions: Mariano, Edgar and the Moose
The forecasting website gives its annual predictions with lots of analysis...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/01/btrtns-annual-major-league-baseball.html
"Each year we analyze the baseball Hall of Fame ballot to answer two questions: 1) which nominees will be elected in this year’s voting, receiving at least 75% of the vote of the Baseball Writers Association of America (we also predict what percentage each nominee will receive), and 2) who amongst the nominees deserves to be in the Hall of Fame? The two lists are never identical. For the first question, we use various statistical models to come up with an initial estimate of the percentage of the vote they will receive, and we use judgment to massage and finalize that estimate. For the second question, we have developed a methodology to compare nominees to their predecessors to determine their HOF-worthiness.
Last year we had a very good year. We predicted accurately that first-timers Chipper Jones and Jim Thome would be elected, and that returnees Vladimir Guerrero and Trevor Hoffman would make the grade as well. We also did quite well in predicting the actual voting percentages of most on the ballot, missing only two players relatively egregiously, underestimating Omar Vizquel and overestimating Scott Rolen. Both were first-timers and both slick fielders, and those two factors pose massive issues for those in the HOF projection business, as was revealed yet again. (We were also pretty far off on Andruw Jones at a much lower vote level; he, too, was legendary defensively.) Because defensive metrics are neither perfect nor widely known, strong defensive players are more difficult to assess. But everyone else was within field goal range. I was off on average by 4.8 percentage points per nominee, better than the 5.9 “miss” in each of the previous two years...."
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