March 31, 2020

BTRTN: State of the "Race" (The Political One, not the Race to Contain Covid-19)

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/03/btrtn-state-of-race-political-one-not.html

"The coronavirus essentially has accomplished the impossible, shutting down the world as we know it. Our global community has shrunk to fit within our four walls; whole swaths of our lives have been eliminated, while routine tasks (such as acquiring food) have become outsized events, requiring meticulous planning. Massive entities such as United Airlines and Carnival Cruise Lines suddenly find no demand for their products, while others that cater to the shut-in life, like Instacart and Zoom, are soaring.

And what of the presidential race, that quadrennial spectacle? Yes, it is still underway, in near-subterranean fashion. Our purpose here is to give you an update, because it is pretty hard to tell what is going on if you don’t search carefully. Campaign coverage, if not non-existent, has been relegated to the final minutes of any news or commentary show at best, the middle pages of the newspaper, and "below the fold" of any website.

So let us provide an update covering five subjects: how the campaigns are being run; the delegate count; the primary schedule, such as it is right now; the head-to-head polls; and, finally, for sport, the state of the Democratic veepstakes. Plus, a brief section on Andrew Cuomo..."

March 14, 2020

BTRTN: Why the Coronavirus Numbers Scare Me

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/03/btrtn-why-coronavirus-numbers-scare-me.html

Let’s look at the trend in Italy. Italy, as you know from the headlines, is having a terrible time with the coronavirus. But looking at this chart, you can see that our trend is right with Italy -- just about eleven days behind them. Their growth rate is in the 20%+ range, and they are up to more than 15,000 cases.

Rates of change persist until something happens to slow them down. And the Italian government basically shut down the entire country three days ago. All shops in the entire country have been shut down by the Italian government, with the exception of supermarkets, pharmacies and a few others. They had already banned travel within the country (except for work or health reasons), and shut down all the schools. (Spain and France just announced, minutes ago, that they are taking similar steps.)

We have not taken any actions remotely resembling that – in fact we have taken little federal action at all within our borders; almost all of our shutdowns have been done voluntarily on a local basis by governors, mayors, or businesses (such as the NBA)....
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March 14, 2020

BTRTN: Why the Coronavirus Numbers Scare Me

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/03/btrtn-why-coronavirus-numbers-scare-me.html

Let’s look at the trend in Italy. Italy, as you know from the headlines, is having a terrible time with the coronavirus. But looking at this chart, you can see that our trend is right with Italy -- just about eleven days behind them. Their growth rate is in the 20%+ range, and they are up to more than 15,000 cases.

Rates of change persist until something happens to slow them down. And the Italian government basically shut down the entire country three days ago. All shops in the entire country have been shut down by the Italian government, with the exception of supermarkets, pharmacies and a few others. They had already banned travel within the country (except for work or health reasons), and shut down all the schools. (Spain and France just announced, minutes ago, that they are taking similar steps.)

We have not taken any actions remotely resembling that – in fact we have taken little federal action at all within our borders; almost all of our shutdowns have been done voluntarily on a local basis by governors, mayors, or businesses (such as the NBA)....

March 10, 2020

Final BTRTN predictions for March 10 primaries

Here are their final...Biden sweep, lively read:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/03/btrtn-march-10-primaries-previews-is.html

"We begin with Not-Quite-Super-Tuesday, tomorrow, with six primaries. A total of 352 pledged delegates are at stake, with Michigan (125) the largest prize, followed by Washington (89), Missouri (68), Mississippi (36) and Idaho (20), North Dakota (14).

Biden heads into the March 10 primaries with 664 delegates to 573 for Sanders. (There still remain about 100 delegates that have yet to be allocated from Super Tuesday, largely from California.) This is hardly an insurmountable lead, but, based on the results to date, the rest of the primary season appears to favor Biden. Biden has dominated in south and southwestern states and should do well in the Mid-Atlantic states near his Delaware home. Thus, Biden-land includes large states such as Florida (219), Georgia (105), Pennsylvania (186), New Jersey (126) and Maryland (96). Sanders’ strength is in the west, where no such large state primaries remain, Arizona being the largest with 67 delegates. Biden has proven his ability to hold his own in New England, having already won in Massachusetts and Maine."

"It seems clear Biden will win Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi. The fate of the western states is far less clear. At this juncture, we think the momentum is in Biden’s favor, and therefore are calling a sweep. But, as you can see, in very close races it hardly matters who wins or loses, since the delegates are allocated proportionately. Close wins do not close large gaps, and thus Biden’s large wins in Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi will carry the day."