The best site for analytically assessing the baseball Hall of Fame ballot

The best site for analytically assessing the baseball Hall of Fame ballot

The best site for analytically assessing the baseball Hall of Fame ballot

What is so hard about this? On the clear value of vaccines. PLEASE, pass it around.

From CNN:

As the US approaches two years since its first Covid-19 vaccinations, a new study shows the vaccines have kept more than 18 million people out of the hospital and saved more than 3 million lives. Researchers from the Commonwealth Fund and Yale School of Public Health found that without Covid-19 vaccines, the nation would have had 1.5 times more infections, 3.8 times more hospitalizations and 4.1 times more deaths than it did between December 2020 and November 2022, according to the study. To date, Covid-19 has caused at least 99 million cases and more than 1 million deaths in the US, data from the CDC shows. The study estimates that the vaccinations were also a good financial bet, saving the US $1.15 trillion in medical costs.

These guys absolutely nailed the Georgia runoff...

Right down to the tenth of a percetage point...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/12/btrtn-midterms-our-prediction-for.html

They did amazingly well on the midterms, too.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/12/btrtn-how-we-nailed-midterms-with-near.html

These guys absolutely nailed the Georgia runoff...

Right down to the tenth of a percetage point...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/12/btrtn-midterms-our-prediction-for.html

They did amazingly well on the midterms, too.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/12/btrtn-how-we-nailed-midterms-with-near.html

If The Polls Are So Bad, How Have We Forecasted 101 out of the last 107 Senate Races Accurately?

Some facts:

Polls are not perfect -- how could they be? - but they are very accurate. Dismiss polls at your peril -- they tell you where to focus your volunteer efforts.

As for the barrage of GOP polls -- the aggregators and forecasters recognize this phenomenon, understand it and adjust for it. And it's not that those polls are necessarily wrong -- they were generally more accurate in 2020 than the mainstream ones -- there are just a lot of them. That is easy to adjust for....Nate Silver devoted part of a podcast to this topic if you want to know how.

The key to reading these "dire" forecasts is to get motivated by them and ACT. This election is going to be very, very close. Democratic volunteers should focus TODAY on GOTV in the Senate races in GA, NV, AZ, NH and PA. We MUST keep the Senate as it is very likely we are going to lose the House.

Stop whining about the polls and GET OUT THE VOTE!

For a great up-to-the-minute forecast of every single Senate, House and Governor race, read this:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/11/btrtn-2022-official-midterm-election.html

If The Polls Are So Bad, How Have We Forecasted 101 out of the last 107 Senate Races Accurately?

Some facts:

Polls are not perfect -- how could they be? - but they are very accurate. Dismiss polls at your peril -- they tell you where to focus your volunteer efforts.

As for the barrage of GOP polls -- the aggregators and forecasters recognize this phenomenon, understand it and adjust for it. And it's not that those polls are necessarily wrong -- they were generally more accurate in 2020 than the mainstream ones -- there are just a lot of them. That is easy to adjust for....Nate Silver devoted part of a podcast to this topic if you want to know how.

The key to reading these "dire" forecasts is to get motivated by them and ACT. This election is going to be very, very close. Democratic volunteers should focus TODAY on GOTV in the Senate races in GA, NV, AZ, NH and PA. We MUST keep the Senate as it is very likely we are going to lose the House.

Stop whining about the polls and GET OUT THE VOTE!

For a great up-to-the-minute forecast of every single Senate, House and Governor race, read this:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/11/btrtn-2022-official-midterm-election.html

If The Polls Are So Bad, How Have We Forecasted 101 out of the last 107 Senate Races Accurately?

Some facts:

Polls are not perfect -- how could they be? - but they are very accurate. Dismiss polls at your peril -- they tell you where to focus your volunteer efforts.

As for the barrage of GOP polls -- the aggregators and forecasters recognize this phenomenon, understand it and adjust for it. And it's not that those polls are necessarily wrong -- they were generally more accurate in 2020 than the mainstream ones -- there are just a lot of them. That is easy to adjust for....Nate Silver devoted part of a podcast to this topic if you want to know how.

The key to reading these "dire" forecasts is to get motivated by them and ACT. This election is going to be very, very close. Democratic volunteers should focus TODAY on GOTV in the Senate races in GA, NV, AZ, NH and PA. We MUST keep the Senate as it is very likely we are going to lose the House.

Stop whining about the polls and GET OUT THE VOTE!

For a great up-to-the-minute forecast of every single Senate, House and Governor race, read this:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/11/btrtn-2022-official-midterm-election.html

BTRTN: On Covid Data and Magical Thinking

From this article: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/08/btrtn-on-covid-data-and-magical-thinking.html

On March 14, 2020, I posted a piece on early Covid case trends. At the time there were a mere 2,144 cases in America. But I was alarmed at what I saw and sought to convince readers, including friends and family, of the nature of the threat. While the piece seems quaint now, and hardly begins to capture the ultimate nature of the threat as we know it, it was educational in stating that Covid was not going to be a short-term blip. (I have including a link to that post at the end of this article.) At that time, many thought it would be over in a few weeks or months, and were hardly prepared for the behavior changes that would be required.

We are nearly two-and-a-half years from that point now, well along the Covid road – but I find myself having similar fears today, 92 million reported cases later.

So let me shred some enabling Covid myths.

· “Covid is going away.” It is actually the opposite. Covid is actually getting worse. Every new omicron variant appears to be more transmissible, if not more dangerous, than the last. Tons of people are getting it; the anecdotal evidence among our immediate friends and family is overwhelming and inescapable. And the higher transmissions are leading to more hospitalizations and deaths.

· “Everyone is inevitably going to get it anyway, so you might as well just get it over with.” Actually, everyone is not getting it, and if you behave reasonably responsibly, armed with the latest information, you can lower your odds markedly (though you can’t eliminate them). And you don’t want to get this: if you get it more than once, you are potentially weakening your body more and more each time. It is far better to avoid getting it, and if you get it, try not to get it again, especially if you are older.

· “If you get Covid, you are protected against ever getting it again.” This, too, is false. At best you have a month, give or take, with Ba.5.