HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » tgards79 » Journal
Page: 1

tgards79

Profile Information

Member since: Thu Aug 7, 2014, 09:37 AM
Number of posts: 1,343

About Me

My blog: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/

Journal Archives

BTRTN: On Covid Data and Magical Thinking

From this article: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/08/btrtn-on-covid-data-and-magical-thinking.html

On March 14, 2020, I posted a piece on early Covid case trends. At the time there were a mere 2,144 cases in America. But I was alarmed at what I saw and sought to convince readers, including friends and family, of the nature of the threat. While the piece seems quaint now, and hardly begins to capture the ultimate nature of the threat as we know it, it was educational in stating that Covid was not going to be a short-term blip. (I have including a link to that post at the end of this article.) At that time, many thought it would be over in a few weeks or months, and were hardly prepared for the behavior changes that would be required.

We are nearly two-and-a-half years from that point now, well along the Covid road – but I find myself having similar fears today, 92 million reported cases later.

So let me shred some enabling Covid myths.

· “Covid is going away.” It is actually the opposite. Covid is actually getting worse. Every new omicron variant appears to be more transmissible, if not more dangerous, than the last. Tons of people are getting it; the anecdotal evidence among our immediate friends and family is overwhelming and inescapable. And the higher transmissions are leading to more hospitalizations and deaths.

· “Everyone is inevitably going to get it anyway, so you might as well just get it over with.” Actually, everyone is not getting it, and if you behave reasonably responsibly, armed with the latest information, you can lower your odds markedly (though you can’t eliminate them). And you don’t want to get this: if you get it more than once, you are potentially weakening your body more and more each time. It is far better to avoid getting it, and if you get it, try not to get it again, especially if you are older.

· “If you get Covid, you are protected against ever getting it again.” This, too, is false. At best you have a month, give or take, with Ba.5.

BTRTN: On Covid Data and Magical Thinking

From this article: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/08/btrtn-on-covid-data-and-magical-thinking.html

On March 14, 2020, I posted a piece on early Covid case trends. At the time there were a mere 2,144 cases in America. But I was alarmed at what I saw and sought to convince readers, including friends and family, of the nature of the threat. While the piece seems quaint now, and hardly begins to capture the ultimate nature of the threat as we know it, it was educational in stating that Covid was not going to be a short-term blip. (I have including a link to that post at the end of this article.) At that time, many thought it would be over in a few weeks or months, and were hardly prepared for the behavior changes that would be required.

We are nearly two-and-a-half years from that point now, well along the Covid road – but I find myself having similar fears today, 92 million reported cases later.

So let me shred some enabling Covid myths.

· “Covid is going away.” It is actually the opposite. Covid is actually getting worse. Every new omicron variant appears to be more transmissible, if not more dangerous, than the last. Tons of people are getting it; the anecdotal evidence among our immediate friends and family is overwhelming and inescapable. And the higher transmissions are leading to more hospitalizations and deaths.

· “Everyone is inevitably going to get it anyway, so you might as well just get it over with.” Actually, everyone is not getting it, and if you behave reasonably responsibly, armed with the latest information, you can lower your odds markedly (though you can’t eliminate them). And you don’t want to get this: if you get it more than once, you are potentially weakening your body more and more each time. It is far better to avoid getting it, and if you get it, try not to get it again, especially if you are older.

· “If you get Covid, you are protected against ever getting it again.” This, too, is false. At best you have a month, give or take, with Ba.5.
Go to Page: 1