December 16, 2021

If BBB isn't passed by Christmas, mail coal to Manchin's office

It's a 2fer, coal for being on the naughty list, and because if he doesn't pas BBB, he clearly cares for coal more than the wellbeing of the American people

December 10, 2021

Nov CPI data shows 6.8% inflation, highest in 40 years

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2021/12/10/inflation-rate-consumer-prices-rose-6-8-annually-november/6455689001/

definitely puts pressure on employers for the upcoming annual raise discussions with employees. The old standby 2% raise is just not going to cut it this time around.

October 29, 2021

538's average now shows VA governor race tied

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/virginia/

So 10 months after Jan 6, a state whose politics are controlled by the DC suburbs could very well elect a Trumpkin governor. A state that was blue by +10 a year ago. What the heck is wrong with this picture???

August 22, 2021

Joe quietly just struck the biggest blow to the gun industry in a generation

He just imposed new sanctions on Russia for the Navalny assassination attempt. This includes a policy of denial of all future import permits of Russian made guns and ammunition.

https://www.state.gov/fact-sheet-united-states-imposes-additional-costs-on-russia-for-the-poisoning-of-aleksey-navalny/

This happened a few days ago but I hadn't seen anything about it. I only heard about it through angry ranting last night from my gunner brother-in-law while we were over at his house.

Supposedly over a third of all ammo sold in the US is Russian or made with some Russian made materials. He was very upset that ammo would permanently be significantly more expensive and harder to find.

Just goes to show Joe is getting things done without congress and sometimes it doesn't make the headlines either.

June 15, 2021

Consumer Price Index hits record YoY increase, 6.6%

https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/15/economy/producer-price-inflation-may/index.html

Not good. Joe needs to sit on the Fed and get them to start taking action to put the brakes on this. CPI is a lagging indicator, and spot data (commodity prices, real estate prices, etc) suggest this isn't slowing down.

Betting employers still think they're going to pat the employees on the head and tell them 2.5% is a good raise...

March 23, 2021

The reality on promoting a new weapons ban

I see a lot of frustration, justifiably so, after the recent shootings. Many seem to think with just a little coaxing, we can get a new assault weapons ban passed.

There are more obstacles than I think many here realize.

1) passing the House. Our margin is thin, and we are dependent on some reps from purple areas with a strong firearm tradition. It will likely be extremely tight getting to votes in our own party for it.

2) passing the senate. Getting 10 Republicans isn't happening, no matter how many shootings occur, so forget that avenue. That leaves ending the filibuster. Manchin is reluctant as is Sinema. I think we'll have more getting cold feet about it if the reasoning is to put a gun ban to a vote. I can see that only adding to Manchin and Sinema's reluctance. But also can see Warnock, Kelly, and even Hassan being wary of voting yes under those conditions with 2022 looming in their gun friendly states.

3) The courts. There are plenty of Trump judges who would throw an injunction and this would quickly hit the supreme court. Not only do we have to overcome a 6-3 conservative majority, there is also the matter of the Heller decision. The 08 Heller decision indicated that guns that are in common use are constitutionally protected for ownership. This gives them a tailor made excuse to strike it down. This common use challenge to assault weapons bans has not been heard by the court yet, but could easily tear down not only a future national ban but many existing state controls.

Se will call this defeatism, it's just realism. The cards are not in our favor for pushing a ban at the time. Senator Coons pretty much said this recently, indicating that on gun control passing a small bill is better than failing to pass a large one. We should listen and make background checks our focus, it's still progress. Sadly it's also still a long shot, but at least might have a slim chance.

January 6, 2021

congratulations all, we won! ... now it is time to temper expectations.

Expanding the courts? Adding states? sweeping climate change legislation? Banning assault guns? Universal Basic Income? Universal Healthcare?

Forget about all of these for at least two years.

We are 50/50 in the Senate.
We have an 11 seat advantage in the house (13 if we take both open seats).
We have control by the narrowest of margins.

A single defection in the Senate on a bill stops it; this means we needed all of our purple or red state Dems every time. Manchin, Tester, Sinema, Kelly, etc. Manchin and others are a no for removing the legislative filibuster, so reconciliation is just about our only vehicle for bills, which adds limits of its own.

Same for judicial nominations; expect moderate judges, not progressive activists.

We lost a lot of seats in the House, and some returning Representatives barely made it back. We can take 6 or 7 defections, but even that cannot be taken for granted anymore. Especially since the surprise Republican gains in Nov will have all of our at risk seatholders firmly focused on re-election for the next two years.

Is this meant for gloom and doom? No, we won! It is just a reminder that there is a lot of hard work ahead and we won't be able to get everything we want. However progress can once again be made, baby steps at a time.

We need to focus on the easily obtainable, the non-controversial.

○ Modest progress on climate change by softer measures like energy efficiency subsidies and tax credits.
○ Fixing our tax code (undoing Trump's giveaway to the rich) and getting the top few percent and Wall Street paying more to help the rest of us.
○ Prescription drug pricing reform
○ proper covid response and financial assistance

It also might not be a bad idea to use two specific themes that Trump exploited; promoting and encouraging American manufacturing, and also distancing from China. Sounds crazy, but hear me out.

Modern, highly automated manufacturing is the future. Manufacturing left the US so the companies could have higher profits from cheap labor overseas. Automation is becoming cheaper and more effective, eventually (especially with potential public opinion backlash) a tipping point will be reached where it makes sense to close the sweatshops and build new automated factories. Where would it make sense to build them? Close to the markets (cheaper / faster shipping) and in a location with a high tech base to support the technology used. In other words it really will make sense to bring manufacturing 'home' to the US - especially if we encourage it. This will also have a positive impact on climate change as cutting edge manufacturing has less waste and less pollution.

Distancing from China. This one is a no brainer to me; just look at how they treat people. Hong Kong, the Uighur people, Tibet, Mongolians, exploitation of Africa. Not to mention their hacking, spying, and intellectual property theft. We should be working to eliminate our co-dependence on them, they are not a government we should want to be close to.