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BornADemocrat

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Member since: Sun Apr 26, 2015, 11:58 PM
Number of posts: 8,158

Journal Archives

Franken: FBI's Comey should face Senate hearings

http://pmd.cdn.turner.com/cnn/big//politics/2016/11/06/sotu-franken-fbi.cnn_cnn_iphone_cell.mp4

Can't get video to embed.

He talks about the "rogue element" in the FBI and won't answer whether Comey should be allowed to finish the remaining 7 years of his term. He's implied that Comey should be able to control said rogue elements in the FBI (or be removed?)

How To Survive The Onslaught Of Final Polls

Natalie Jackson Senior Polling Editor, The Huffington Post

The end of the election cycle always coincides with a massive batch of poll releases. Most pollsters want to get their final measures out and capitalize on peak interest in polling numbers before Election Day.

That means we’ll be swimming in data on Monday.

...

Look at the polling aggregates.


Perhaps the most important key to keeping your sanity with all the polls coming in is to not follow every single poll and every little bounce in the numbers. Polling aggregates are your friend.

I don’t say that to minimize pollsters’ hard work ― many of them do high-quality surveys and deserve credit for that. But when there’s an overwhelming amount of polling data coming at you, the best way to deal with it is to let someone else deal with it. If you’re trying to keep up with multiple 50-state polls on top of the dozens of other polls released each day, you’re going to have a bad time.

So pick your aggregator. HuffPost Pollster carefully curates the polls we put into our aggregate, making sure they release all the information we need to establish that they’re making a credible attempt to measure voters’ opinions. And, as with the USC/LA Times poll, we’ll also make sure the way polls ask the questions are comparable.

Our aggregate calculation works to minimize the effects of outlier polls and reflect the trend of the polling. The model tries to find the most likely true value of opinion within a bunch of polls that say different things.

...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/final-election-polls-meaning_us_581fabb9e4b0e80b02cac14c

Kellyanne Conway and AJ Delgado attempting to comprehend why Democrats are happy over FBI news

***(CVOTER/UPI (moonies)) national poll goes from Hillary +1.25% lead to Hillary +3.34% lead***



https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3214801-US5th-Nov-Report.html

Yet her odds drop?



Note that Nate's adjusted lead went from +3 to +5, the sample size was larger and her average lead is just under 3%, thus this poll HAD to increase her odds, no? The WAPO poll did earlier. It's not logical that this dropped her odds. Can a statistician here please explain this to me?

"Bill Cl.. oh, Don is a pedophile/molester? Someone call Rudy we need his people in the FBI"



( I'm not saying that I haven't noticed people accusing Bill Clinton any longer or saying that Hillary covered up for his accusers)



The worst part IMO is how they are attacking/threatening DJTs accusers - it's some of the most vile hypocrisy I've ever seen.

For what it's worth

For the past week, Hillary has been ahead or tied in the most recent release of every poll in Florida (Huffpo doesn't use Pulse).

Remember, because of the time change, we have one extra hour of this fucking election.

Andy Borowitz

Hillary Clinton Is Leading In A Greater Portion Of Polls Than Obama Was In The Last Two Elections

(she means national polls)

Hillary Clinton has consistently led in a greater portion of presidential polls in the two months heading into Election Day than President Barack Obama did in both 2008 and 2012.

The Democratic nominee is ahead of GOP nominee Donald Trump in 93 percent of polls conducted in the two months before Election Day. Trump leads in just 3 percent of the polls. Another 3 percent of polls show a tied race.



The range by which Clinton leads relative to Trump also stands in stark contrast to the 2008 and 2012 elections.

The former secretary of state leads by 1 to 13 points in the polls she is ahead in. Trump’s lead, among the 3 percent of polls he’s ahead in, ranges from 1 to 2 points.



Even when the data range is narrowed to the week heading into Election Day, Clinton still has a strong advantage. Polls get more predictive of the outcome the closer they are to Election Day.



... more and link

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-polls_us_581e2897e4b0e80b02ca6962
____________________________________________________

Now poll gurus, don't shoot the messenger, I know it's not a national election, it's still interesting.

Poll: Clinton holds a 6-point lead in Pa.

A new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows Democrat Hillary Clinton with a 6-point lead among likely Pennsylvania voters, who also expressed some concerns about potential violence as the tense and tumultuous election draws to a close.

The results are similar to a poll conducted two weeks earlier , indicating little to no shift in public opinion after the recent FBI announcement that it was reviewing a new set of emails linked to Clinton, said Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion.

The statewide survey — conducted between Oct. 30 and Nov. 4 with 405 likely Pennsylvania voters and with a margin of error of 5.5 percentage points — shows Clinton with support from 48 percent and Trump with the backing of 42 percent in a head-to-head matchup.

When third-party candidates are included, Clinton's lead narrows to 4 points. She drew 44 percent, with Trump at 40 percent, Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson at 7 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2 percent.

...

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-poll-trump-clinton-toomey-mcginty-20161105-story.html

_____________________________

A-rated pollster on 538 if that matters.

What's worse?

What’s worse?

Having a potentially unsafe email server or conspiring with Russia/Wikileaks to hack US interests in an attempt to swing the election in your favor?

Having a potentially unsafe email server or having Rudy Giuliani and the FBI conspiring to illegally influence an election? (If this happened in another country, we’d call it a coup.)

Having a husband who was accused sexual misconduct (and never brought to trial) 25 years ago, or being the candidate who bragged about molesting women, and then learning that those women do indeed exist?

Having a husband who was accused of sexual misconduct (and never brought to trial) 25 years ago, or being the candidate who will be standing trial for child rape after the election?

Increasing taxes on millionaires or cutting taxes for his millionaire buddies that will increase the deficit 8x more than her plan?

Someone who gets paid for giving speeches, or someone who creates a fake university to rip people off and is going to trial this fall for fraud (oh, and says the judge is not qualified to adjudicate his fraud trial because his parents are “Mexican”.)

Accusing illegal immigrants of being criminals, or having a wife who is, in reality, a criminal for working here illegally as an immigrant?

A multi-millionaire who sleazed out of paying taxes for 20 years (1st candidate in modern history not to release tax returns) while making fun of people who do pay taxes, or releasing 20 years of taxes with no issues to worry about?

A candidate who seems eager to use nuclear weapons (if, say, a dictator insults his “small hands”), or one who has experience as a tough diplomat and who’s afraid of nothing?

Supporting handicapped people or making fun of handicapped people?

Celebrating your supporters of all faiths/religions or insulting a man of faith whose son died in service to our country (just because he wasn’t from a religion that you “approve” of)?

“Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free” or “fuck it - kick ‘em all out”?

Supporting people of all colors at your rallies or calling one of your black supporters a “thug”?

Supporting people of all faiths at your rallies or having the support of the KKK and having people at your rallies shouting “Jew S A” (USA)? Does this remind you of anything from your history books?

Exaggerating about sniper fire in Bosnia or saying he knows “more about Isis than the generals” (Isis is currently being pushed out of their Capital city of Mosul as I type this)?

9/11 or “Benghazi”?

_____________________________________


My arguments to those R's you know who may be susceptible to changing their mind.

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