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CheshireDog

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Gender: Male
Hometown: New York
Home country: USA
Current location: New York
Member since: Wed Jun 17, 2015, 01:41 PM
Number of posts: 63

Journal Archives

Bernie will not repeat Obama's Performance

I keep seeing these threads comparing Bernie's intrade/poll numbers to Obama at the same point, and clinging to the notion that history will repeat itself. It won't for some very important reasons:

1. Bernie is no Obama. He's a great guy, very impassioned, but he is not the campaigner or orator that Obama is. Obama literally did everything right while running a historical campaign to become to first black president. There is no comparison.

2. Hillary is polling far above where she did in 2008. In Iowa, she was locked in a 3 way race and polls put her, Obama, and Edwards in a dead heat. She's on track to win Iowa this time as there is no other candidate to the right of her (Edwards) to split her vote. I expect her to get at least 55+% in Iowa. This is what launched Obama in 2008. After she wins Iowa its likely she will also win NH

3. The biggest weakness Hillary had in 2008 was running against the first plausible AA candidate. This meant she automatically lost states where AA's made up the majority of Democrats, which is most of the southern states. This time around, minorities are mostly on her side and it will be difficult for Sanders to win any states such as GA, SC, NC, LA, MS, AL, etc.

4. Hillary is much stronger this time around and she is building a ground game beyond 2008.

5. Superdelegates held out in 2008. This time they are overwhelmingly choosing Hillary before the first vote is even cast.
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