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kenn3d's Journal
kenn3d's Journal
September 30, 2015

Robert Reich -"Bernie Sanders tells the truth"

Robert Reich, who served as labor secretary under President Clinton, discusses the economic plans of Democratic front-runners Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, as well as his new book, "Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few." The book looks at why the United States is now experiencing the greatest income inequality and wealth disparity in 80 years.

September 25, 2015

Another National Poll to end the week - Ipsos/Reuters (weekly)

Population 1,582 Adults
Margin of Error ±2.8 percentage points
Polling Method Internet
Source Ipsos/Reuters

2016 National Democratic Primary
Asked of 608 Democrats
Joe Biden (D) 15% (-3 since last Ipsos/Reuters poll)
Lincoln Chafee (D) 0%
Hillary Clinton (D) 40% (-6 since last Ipsos/Reuters poll)
Andrew Cuomo (D) 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 0%
Martin O'Malley (D) 2%
Bernie Sanders (D) 30% (+5 since last Ipsos/Reuters poll)
Jim Webb (D) 0%
Wouldn't vote 10%

This drops the HuffPolster (National) spread again to 16.1

September 22, 2015

Ok, I'll kick this back up once more.

Your efforts are very much appreciated Godhumor.

There's a ton of total foolishness in the poll related threads here on DU GDP, and many posts repeatedly express a near complete misunderstanding of what polls can tell us. Many members are so invested in their candidate that the only poll they'll accept is one that appears to say they're winning (even when it doesn't say that at all). The pollsters and their motives are maligned, the results are misinterpreted and twisted (often beyond recognition). And the partisans revel in taunts and toldyasos ad nauseum.

Actually learning how polls are conducted, the strengths and weaknesses of various polling methods, and the confidence and fallibility they necessarily bring with their reported results, is good for us. It fosters better understanding, and reduces unnecessary frustration.

Thanks for adding a bit of sanity to the topic. I hope a few more folks will read your OP this time through.

September 22, 2015

New CNN National Poll!!! .... Relax everybody.

The latest CNN National Primary poll shows the Clinton/Sanders spread increasing from +10 Clinton to +18 Clinton in just the one week since the previous CNN poll. But despite any headlines you may be reading or watching, or arguing about here, this is really not too newsworthy. And all the news about it will be misleading.

Both the HuffPolster and the RealClearPolitics Composites recorded a further small decline in Clinton's lead over Sanders when this new CNN poll was added to their respective datasets.
Huh?! Soooo.... That means Go Bernie! Right?
Not really. Bernie has indeed been gaining in the polls (on average) and that fact has been readily visible in the composite results of all these polls pretty much ever since he announced his campaign. But this newest CNN poll has only contributed to those composite trend calculations. It does not define the current state of the competition. She's still way ahead in the national polls (if that means anything). And Bernie is still closing the gap as can be easily seen by looking at the composite graphs.

On the left you see the composite averages shown as of Sept 10th. This was the day when the previous CNN poll was included in this chart. That specific individual poll had Clinton at 37 and Sanders at 27 (Clinton +10) and the headlines screamed Clinton tanking! Sanders surging!
The composite spread at that point was Clinton 45.8 / Sanders 22.6 (Clinton +23.2)

On the right you see today, with this latest CNN poll included in the composite dataset. This new specific individual CNN poll has Clinton at 42 and Sanders at 24 (Clinton +18) and the headlines this morning shout Clinton widens lead over Sanders 80%!
The composite spread is now Clinton 43.3 / Sanders 23.8 (Clinton +19.5)

IOW, from the time last week when Sanders was surging to within 10pts, until now with Clinton widening her lead... the composite spread (gap) has narrowed by 3.7%

And btw, if you prefer to use the HuffPollster Composites, that chart with the addition of today's new CNN data has Clinton 43.4 / Sanders 26.3 (+17.1 Clinton).

So my friends, this new CNN poll is no more worthy of this morning's MSM headlines proclaiming Hillary's sudden rise, than was the last CNN National Primary poll showing a spread of +10 Clinton in proclaming Bernie closes the gap to 10pts!. Neither, were really true, or meaningful in any way.

If you're interested in following the minutia of weekly fluctuations in the national polls, just watch the composite trend graphs and spreads. Don't be misled into thinking that any one poll (no matter how poorly or excellently conducted) represents the state of the race at any point in time. The composite averages of many many many national polls can only gradually describe the contest in a very broadly averaged and generalized way that has little or nothing to do with the actual probabilities that your candidate can or will gather sufficient primary delegates to be nominated in the arduous state by state process that won't begin yet for months. The race for the nomination is not in any real way measured by this national polling. And the individual polls by themselves certainly do not indicate the current state of the race.


Anything can happen. So support your candidate. GOTV!

September 18, 2015

Sanders won the GOP debate (again)

Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) was crowned king of the debate yet again after producing the single biggest Facebook post of the night by far.

"It wasn't even close," says Brandon Silverman, CEO of CrowdTangle, a company that measures and analyzes social media interactions.

"The evening was really pretty sad," Sanders wrote in the Facebook post that garnered over 176,000 likes and 35,000 shares. "This country and our planet face enormous problems. And the Republican candidates barely touched upon them tonight. And when they did, they were dead wrong on virtually every position they took. The Republican Party cannot be allowed to lead this country. That's why we need a political revolution."

Sanders also live-tweeted the debate using the hashtag #DebateWithBernie.

By comparison, the most shared Facebook post from a GOP candidate, which was published by Ben Carson, garnered 128,000 likes and 8,700 shares.

This wasn't Sanders's first GOP debate victory, either.

During the first debate on August 6, Sanders generated the most retweeted tweet of the night, with over four times the retweets of the next candidate down: Hillary Clinton.

September 14, 2015

MSNBC pundits admit: 'We need to air more Bernie Sanders stories."

This MoJoe clip is from late last week, and has at least one pretty nasty edit... but MSNBC speaks some truth to itself here. I suspect this weekend's latest polls showing Bernie's double-digit lead in both IA and NH may result in further introspection on their part.

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